Matt Youmans – NFL Week 12 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 12 best bets.
Philadelphia (-3) at Dallas
With the reigning Super Bowl champions sitting at 8-2, it might seem the forecast is sunny in Philadelphia. It takes a lot to keep a diva wide receiver happy, however, and A.J. Brown is becoming a dark cloud hovering over the Eagles. Brown is upset with his diminished role in the offense and appears to be at odds with quarterback Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles are dealing with turmoil at a time when the Cowboys (4-5-1) could be coming together, setting the stage for their NFC East rematch Sunday. The smell of an upset is in the air and the betting market is showing support for Dallas as a home underdog.
Dak Prescott was at his best Monday night, passing for 268 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout victory over the Raiders, and he’ll need to maintain that level of play. The Cowboys are getting surprisingly strong production from running back Javonte Williams, and receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are talented enough to party through curfew and still show up to make big plays, combining for 14 catches, 210 yards and two touchdowns Monday. Dallas ranks No. 2 in scoring offense (29.6 ppg).
The Brown/Hurts rift is half of the story in Philadelphia. Everything is great with coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense, which allowed a total of 16 points in recent wins against the Lions and Packers. The Eagles will throw a much bigger challenge at Prescott than he faced in Las Vegas.
Brown was not much of a factor when the Eagles scored a total of 26 points in their past two wins. Hurts has impressive numbers — 22 total touchdowns (16 passing) and one interception — yet it’s obvious the offense is out of sync. The Dallas defense is improved with the addition of veteran tackle Quinnen Williams in a trade-deadline deal with the Jets and reinforcements returning from injury.
Philadelphia hosts the Bears in a Black Friday game that is surely critical to a majority of Circa Survivor contestants. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles will be trying to bounce back from a loss to Dallas. It’s still possible to take +3.5, but most books have lowered the line to 3.
Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys +3
Pittsburgh at Chicago (-2.5)
The Steelers are officially listing Aaron Rodgers as questionable with a small fracture in his left wrist, but it might be better if he sits this one out and allows Mason Rudolph to run the offense. Rudolph was sharp when he stepped in last week and completed 12 of 16 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. Chicago’s defense is compromised with three starting linebackers — Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell — ruled out with injuries. The Bears, 7-3 mostly due to their league-best turnover margin of +16, have escaped with wins by margins of one, one, two, four and five points and it can be argued they should have lost all five of those games. I bet Pittsburgh +3 early in the week and will stick with coach Mike Tomlin as an underdog in a game he’s probably going to win outright.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3)
It’s not an overstatement to say the Chiefs (5-5) are backed against the wall and getting into must-win territory. After coming up short at Denver, Kansas City fell 3.5 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West and the goal now is simply to make the playoffs. This is when bettors should be able to count on Patrick Mahomes’ best effort and the Chiefs to show their championship pedigree. The Colts are off a bye, which is a plus in this spot, but quarterback Daniel Jones has shown signs of regression with four interceptions in the past two games. The overriding factors are Mahomes’ will to win and Kansas City’s situation as a desperate home favorite. The line is 3.5 at several books, but the play is to lay -3 (-120) at Circa Sports.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-120)
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