Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to Week 13 in the NFL:

The Thanksgiving meal didn’t disappoint, and neither did the Giants or the Dolphins in terms of predicting their bad outcomes. Frankly, the Cowboys were in line with our thoughts. So were the Lions until the fourth quarter. Most of all, Matt Eberflus was exactly who we thought he was as a head coach: incapable of winning close games. In one-score games, Eberflus is 5-19, which qualifies him for the worst mark of any NFL coach who has coached in 20 games or more. What we saw before our Thanksgiving Day meal was awful from a coaching and preparation standpoint. No wonder Eberflus has been so bad in close games. He doesn’t understand how to prepare his team. Bears fans knew this before the game. Now, America understands their pain. 

After yesterday’s gut-wrenching performance, the Bears have no chance to make the playoffs or cover their pre-season win total. In the first half, we saw why the Bears and betting their Over win total wasn’t a good idea this summer. Their offensive line cannot handle power. They have no running game to help their young quarterback. Most of all, their “supposed” top-flight defense isn’t what many believed. The Bears have flaws; not all of them lay at the feet of their head coach. Ryan Poles, their general manager, is beloved for picking, trading, and signing skill players, yet the team lacks power and toughness, which can only come from the personnel side. You want to know why they get field goals blocked? They have no power in the linemen they selected, so when they are involved in field goal protection, they cannot hold the line. Yes, the Bears need a new coach, but they also need a new philosophy, one that might be harder to find as long as Poles controls the roster. 

 

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The other predictable outcome yesterday was the lack of toughness in the Miami team.  The softness of their offensive line was evident before the game, as they were one of the worst teams in the NFL at converting third and fourth and short.  So why was anyone surprised when they failed to score and get back into the game late into the third quarter? Everything Miami does is finesse—screens, quick throws, fake the ball in one direction, go another. Never can they line up and take the game over. They must protect Tua, and with this offensive line, they had no chance against a good Packers front. Miami can beat bad teams; they cannot beat good teams. Mike McDaniels is now 5-11 with seven games remaining in the season over the last three seasons. His teams never get better; they never play with toughness or an edge, which is required during the winter months. The Fins are technically still alive in the seventh-seed wild card race, and have a schedule that favors them, if they can go on the road to beat Houston, Cleveland and the New York Jets in December/January. Cold, bad weather and a need for toughness, never make me a Miami believer. 

The best part of the Thanksgiving Day games and the Black Friday game this afternoon is we will have an interesting weekend. What we all think might happen probably won’t.  Can Houston get back on track, or are they in trouble? The betting line seems to believe the Jags are primed for the upset. The Falcons are not favored at home against the Chargers, and they are supposed to be the best of the South. Can the Bucs catch them? Not if they don’t beat the Panthers. And the biggest question. Can the Raiders upset the Chiefs?  Even Antonio Pierce doesn’t think so with his comments this week.  Pierce said: “Let’s call a spade a spade. Best team in football against the worst team in football. Let’s change the narrative. Let’s go out there and let’s make it a dogfight. Let’s make it ugly… it’s Black Friday. Let’s create a little chaos.”

I love chaos; I don’t love the Raiders today. 

NFL QB Ratings

1. Lamar Jackson – Another MVP-type game, and Lamar usually shines

2. Josh Allen – Bad weather game, which favors the strong-armed Allen

3. Jared Goff – He has now become so methodical. 

4. Joe Burrow – He plays great, but his team doesn’t. 

5. Jalen Hurts – Showing great poise and making plays with his feet. 

BOTTOM FIVE

28.   Will Levis – Showing signs of improvement, but still with some bad plays.

29.   Anthony Richardson – Consistency has been his problem. 

30.   Cooper Rush – Has a hard time completing easy throws

31.   Any Giant QB – Did you think it could get worse? It has. 

32.   Aiden O’Connell – This will be a hard game as he returns from injury. 

2024 NFL Power Ratings 

Detroit and Philadelphia continue to improve their numbers, as does Minnesota, who was on the road for three games and won them all.  Washington is starting to slide; Baltimore still allows too many yards on defense, impacting their defensive numbers.  Even though Denver moved out of the top ten, they are still improving and will continue to be a quality team. 

As for the bottom, the Falcons, with their bad defensive number,s cannot move up, nor can the Rams. San Francisco is in a free fall, and because of their injuries, don’t expect them to make a comeback. The betting numbers on their games won’t be right for another few weeks and more losses. 

  1. Detroit
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Buffalo 
  4. Minnesota
  5. Pittsburgh
  6. Green Bay
  7. Washington 
  8. Kansas City
  9. Baltimore
  10. LA Chargers
  11. Denver 
  12. Houston
  13. Tampa Bay 
  14. Arizona
  15. Miami
  16. Seattle
  17. Cincinnati
  18. LA Rams
  19. Chicago 
  20. NY Jets
  21. San Francisco
  22. Indianapolis
  23. New Orleans
  24. Atlanta
  25. Tennessee
  26. Cleveland
  27. Dallas 
  28. New England
  29. Jacksonville
  30. Las Vegas
  31. NY Giants
  32. Carolina

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

In my power rankings, I have the Eagles as the favorite for their game against the Ravens. The betting market has it the other way. So, I should be all over the Eagles, right? Not so fast. I know the Lamar Jackson numbers as a dog. According to Bet Labs, Jackson, as either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, is 26-6 ATS in his career in the regular season.

When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 25-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs. That stat scares me. The Ravens are the best run defense in the NFL. It will be hard for Philly to just give the ball to Barkley and let him do his magic. It’s a hard game to handicap. So when it becomes scary and challenging, I always revert back to removing it from my betting list. Yes, I know it will be a great game to watch.  Being a great game doesn’t mean you have to make a bet.  So cue up Daryl and John.   

Line of the Week

As I mentioned earlier in the column, the 49ers, are sliding down the rankings because of their injury situation. They head to Buffalo this week, where the weather is going to be nasty: snow, high winds and brisk temperatures. Right now, they are a seven-point dog, and we don’t know if Brock Purdy is even going to play. Expect this line to move higher and the total of 44.5 to come down. This is a mismatch because, without Nick Bosa, the 49ers have no chance to slow down Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense. My sense is to lay the points, ignore the weather, and watch Buffalo dominate coming off the bye. 

Enjoy the games.  

For more NFL Week 13 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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