Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 17 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-160, 9.5)
This is the first game of a day-night doubleheader after yesterday’s matchup was rained out.
The Red Sox (51-48) took the series opener 6-5 on Monday, taking care of business as -165 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Orioles (49-52) start righty Dean Kremer (1-2, 4.15 ERA) and the Red Sox tap lefty Jake Bennett (5-3, 2.35 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -140 home favorite and Baltimore a +120 road dog.
Sharps are riding the red-hot Red Sox, who have won 14 straight games, steaming Boston up from -140 to -160.
At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas pros.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 62-28 (69%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Boston is 4-0 in Bennett’s last four starts. He has posted a 0.87 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched.
The Red Sox also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.09 (the best in MLB), compared to 4.15 for the Orioles (16th).
Baltimore is only hitting .232 against lefties (24th in MLB).
3:40 p.m. ET: Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Athletics (43-58) won the opener 5-2, coming through as +125 road dogs. Then the Diamondbacks (52-49) bounced back with a 6-5 win in extras yesterday, cashing as -140 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Athletics hand the ball to lefty Gage Jump (3-5, 3.78 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to righty Merrill Kelly (7-8, 5.20 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -115 home favorite and the Athletics a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Snakes laying short chalk at home, steaming Arizona up from -115 to -130.
At Circa, Arizona is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Diamondbacks here, are 120-76 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Interleague home favorites off a win receiving line movement in their direction are 45-19 (70%) with a 29% ROI since 2025.
National League teams in Interleague play have gone 252-215 (54%) with a 3% ROI this season.
The A’s are 0-5 in Jump’s last five starts. He has posted a 6.57 ERA in three July starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Kelly has posted a 2.12 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 17 innings pitched.
Arizona is hitting .270 against lefties this season, the best in MLB.
The Diamondbacks are 30-22 at home. The A’s are 23-28 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-120, 9.5) at Philadelphia Phillies
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Phillies (56-46) won the opener 10-7, coming through as -155 home favorites. Then the Dodgers (64-38) hung on to win 2-1 yesterday, cashing as -105 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Dodgers start lefty Eric Lauer (4-5, 4.81 ERA) and the Phillies tap righty Aaron Nola (3-7, 5.68 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have gotten down on the Dodgers at a coin-flip price, steaming Los Angeles up from a -110 road pick’em to a -120 or even -125 road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy in favor of the road team.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 141-88 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 73-45 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
When priced as a short “value” favorite -125 or less, Los Angeles is a perfect 8-0 this season.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .260 with a .341 OBP and 526 runs scored compared to the Phillies hitting .236 with a .402 OBP and 443 runs scored.
Los Angeles is 7-0 in Lauer’s seven starts this season. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in all seven starts.
On the flip side, the Phillies are 1-5 in Nola’s last six starts. He is 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA at home.
