Tuley’s Takes – NFL Divisional Round Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

Well, we didn’t think the Super Wild-Card Weekend was so super here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but it wasn’t too bad as it wasn’t a chalk-fest like most of the regular season as favorites and underdogs split 3-3 straight-up and against the spread. I actually went 1-2 ATS with my “dog or pass” best bets here with losses on the Steelers +10 in their 28-14 loss at the Ravens and Broncos +9 in their 31-7 loss at the Bills but salvaging a win with the Commanders +3 in their 23-20 upset at the Buccaneers.

However, just like during the regular season, my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” bailed us out again as we swept all three of our 2-team, 6-point teasers with the Texans +8.5 vs. the Chargers in their 32-12 upset on Saturday and the Commanders +9 in their aforementioned upset on Sunday and anchoring all of them with the Rams +7 vs. the Vikings (in this column last Thursday, though readily available and closed at +8.5 after the game was moved to Glendale, Arizona, due to the wildfires in Southern California) on Monday night.

 

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We’re down to the Elite Eight with the divisional playoffs this Saturday and Sunday, so let’s get to it. We’ll use our usual “dog or pass” approach to (hopefully) find live dogs like last weekend, plus I’ll continue my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” as I’ve heard from more readers who like to hear me quantify the team’s SU and ATS chances for their own money-line wagers, plus I’ve entered more postseason picking contests this year and use them as well.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8; 41.5)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Regular readers know I was on this Texans team before most everyone else, and I still have faith even though I’m not as confident in my 22-1 future-book ticket from my “too soon” column after last year’s Super Bowl (so, no, I’m not reinvesting at the current price of 50-1). However, they can still give the Chiefs a game. I’ll gladly take the points as loyal readers also know we’ve had a ton of success fading the Chiefs all season (6-3 ATS, according to my records), as they often let teams stick around before winning but failing to cover their inflated lines. In fact, it was just a month ago that these two teams met with the Chiefs winning 27-19. They covered that game as 3-point home favorites, but now we’re getting more than a touchdown.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Texans +8 or higher (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 70/30 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5; 55.5)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

We also get to see the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Saturday in the Lions. Longtime readers also know I was on them years ago when they were building toward their current team and cashed a ton of tickets for us as undervalued dogs. I’ve struggled at times in recent years choosing when to fade them, so despite the temptation of getting more than a TD with a Washington team that shows up each and every week, I’m going to invoke the “pass” part of “dog or pass” here. I think it’s a credit to coach Dan Campbell that the lines always bring their A-game, and I’m not willing to jump in front of the D-train.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders slightly at 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Lions at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6; 41.5)

Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

Here’s another dog I have to pass on. I remember when the Rams were starting to turn around their season and make their run to the playoffs, a lot of people were saying, “This is a team that you don’t want to face in the playoffs.” I guess the Vikings would agree with that, but I don’t think the Eagles mind after running over them (literally as Saquon Barkley rushed for 255 yards and two TDs) in a 37-20 rout in LA. The Rams had no answers in that game. I don’t expect them to have any here. Now, obviously, as Mr. “dog or pass,” I’m not going to lay the points, but I will use the Eagles to kick off this weekend’s “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” as we just need them to win the game straight-up at pick’-em. I’ll use it with the Bills in the Sunday nightcap.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Eagles PK in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-1; 51.5) at Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

OK, I know the Ravens routed the Bills 35-10 way back in Week 4, which is part of the reason why Baltimore has been bet to favoritism after Buffalo opened as short 1- to 1.5-point chalk. However, the Bills average 30.9 points per game, with the Ravens averaging 30.3 while both defenses allow 20.8 ppg, so this is a clear coin-flip to me. So, I love being able to tease the home team to a touchdown or higher. The preferred teaser is to get the hook at +7.5, but it’s your call if you want to pay the extra vig if unable to get it with a 6-pointer. I’m not saying that’s worth it, as I truly see this coming down to a field goal either way. If you didn’t start a teaser with the Eagles (or they lost), I’d lean toward using the Under as in Bills +7/Under 57.5 with this being a playoff game – and Under were 5-1 in the wild-card round.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Bills +7 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bills 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

For more NFL playoff analysis, visit the NFL Divisional Round Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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