EPL Best Bets and Predictions May 23-24
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Tottenham vs. Everton
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
In the last seven days, we saw Manchester City secure the domestic cup double but then fail to beat Bournemouth in the league, meaning Arsenal secured their first Premier League title since 2004. But on the final round of fixtures this season, there is still one relegation place to be decided, and my first of four bets features one of the two sides who could fill it.
Tottenham hosts Everton, knowing a point will be good enough to avoid the drop, regardless of what West Ham does at home to Leeds. However, Spurs have the second-worst home record in the league, which is reflected by what at first looks like a generous price of -109.
Expect a nervy home support which will likely relay to the players if they don’t start fast and with the fact a tie is good enough, I am put off taking Tottenham to win. Remember, with all games kicking off at the same time, news could filter through that West Ham is being soundly beaten, and there is no jeopardy in this game whatsoever.
David Moyes, who is still held in high regard by the Hammers, will ensure his current team is well up for this, but they are not in good form and are conceding lots of goals. So instead, I am getting involved in the player prop market.
Richarlison is ending the season in good scoring form; his experience could be vital, and it is obvious he is playing for the Tottenham shirt. Since Roberto De Zerbi became manager, he has his side looking better going forward, and the Brazilian striker has been a focal point of that.
He is top scorer with 11 league goals, which is seven more than any teammate, and has scored in two of his last three appearances. He also has the extra motivation of being a former Everton player and has scored four goals in six appearances for Spurs against them.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs Everton – Richarlison to score at +160.
Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
There has been a massive move on Manchester City since Aston Villa won the Europa League on Wednesday. After opening at -225, the home side has been bet to -315 at time of writing.
The Villains had already secured Champions League soccer for next season via their league position ahead of this game, but their 3-0 thrashing of Freiburg underlines a tremendous campaign. So, this now all becomes about City, Pep Guardiola’s last game in charge, as well as a few of their long-serving players.
I expect Pep’s men to send him off in style with a win, but my angle to get a nice boost to the price is that they will do so, but concede at least once. Villa are good for a goal, scoring 19 times in their last eight games across all competitions, hitting four in four of those fixtures.
City have won and conceded in the last four meetings between the two sides here at the Etihad. With an end-of-season vibe and tiredness creeping in for both defenses, I would expect plenty of goals again, even with rotated starting lineups.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester City vs Aston Villa – Manchester City to win and both teams to score at -103.
Liverpool vs. Brentford
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Liverpool are attractive odds to win this game at -125, but there is another price, an even bigger one that really caught my eye. Mo Salah is without doubt a Premier League legend, with 191 goals and 92 assists in his 314 appearances in the competition for the Reds.
This is the Egyptian’s last appearance for the club, and he is priced at -104 to score or assist, which I think is staggering. In eight meetings with Brentford, he has scored seven times and provided one assist. Last season, you would expect him to be around -250.
The 33-year-old made a timely return from injury last weekend with a 16-minute cameo, so he looks ready to start here. As well as his threat from open play, expect him to be at the front of the line should Liverpool win a penalty or free kick on the edge of the area.
It’s not really worked out for either Salah or Liverpool this season by both their high standards, but they have been much better at Anfield. Last season’s champions have only lost two of their last 17 home games across all competitions and have won all four Premier League meetings as hosts against Brentford, by an aggregate of 9-0.
There has been nothing factored into this price that it is his last game, and it is a bet that just must be taken.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Brentford – Mo Salah to score or assist at -104.
Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Bournemouth need to win here, hope Liverpool loses against Brentford, and make up a six-goal difference deficit to claim fifth and ensure Champions League soccer next season. However, I think sixth place could achieve that with stars aligning elsewhere.
If the Cherries achieve that, that is for me the story of the season. I have said previously how I thought they were the best-coached side in the Premier League after watching them beat Arsenal at the Emirates.
They tied with Manchester City in midweek to secure Europa League soccer next term, but they should have won that game, having missed more than one great chance. There lies their problem this campaign, drawing too many games, a total of 17 in fact, the most by any team since 2003.
Another tie here suits both sides. Forest guaranteed their Premier League safety with three straight victories, but since then have failed to win a game, but did tie their only home fixture in that sequence.
Vitor Pereira has done a great job since taking over, so the Forest fans will be happy to sign the season off by avoiding defeat. While Andoni Iraola has performed miracles, it would be fitting for him to leave the club with the gift of Champions League soccer next term. Therefore, a tie suits both parties.
The Cherries are also 18 games unbeaten, so another incentive to end the season with that record extended and intact. The tie looks like a very big price to me, and I have to bet it.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth – Tie at +275.
