Spain vs. Argentina | 2026 FIFA World Cup Final | Sunday, July 19 | 3 p.m. ET | MetLife Stadium | New Jersey
Spain (+130) | Draw (+195) | Argentina (+255)
Over 2.5 Goals (+130) | Under 2.5 Goals (-165)
Spain -0.5 (+120) | Argentina +0.5 (-155)
Before we get into the final, a quick thank you to everyone who has read my articles throughout the tournament and reached out on X (@AlexJBlowers) — I appreciate you all.
After 37 days and 103 matches, the 2026 FIFA World Cup comes down to one game: Spain vs. Argentina, Sunday at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.
La Roja controlled possession, won second balls and stifled France throughout. Lamine Yamal earned a 22nd-minute penalty that Mikel Oyarzabal buried for his 30th international goal, and Pedro Porro doubled the lead on 58 minutes after a slick one-two with Dani Olmo. France pushed late through Kylian Mbappé but Unai Simón and Marc Cucurella held firm, preserving Spain’s sixth clean sheet in seven matches and keeping their tournament goals-against total at just one — a World Cup record for a finalist.
Argentina booked their ticket to the World Cup final after a stunning late comeback to beat England 2-1 in Atlanta. The holders trailed from the 55th minute after Anthony Gordon’s finish but Enzo Fernández’s long-range effort on 85 minutes and Lautaro Martínez’s stoppage-time header — both assisted by Lionel Messi — completed a dramatic turnaround.
Spain’s defensive record against Argentina’s never-say-die mentality sets up a fascinating clash of styles in the final. Argentina can become the first team to retain the World Cup since Brazil in 1962; Spain arrive on a record-tying 37-match unbeaten streak, matching Italy’s all-time European mark set between 2018 and 2021. Both are chasing history on Sunday.
SPAIN TEAM NEWS
Luis de la Fuente surprised everyone by sticking with Fabián Ruiz in central midfield over Pedri against France. That decision got them to the final and I expect the same eleven against Argentina.
It has been reported that Pedro Porro is dealing with a muscle strain. He is expected to be fit and ready for Sunday. If he doesn’t make it, Marcos Llorente will deputize. Nico Williams, Mikel Merino, Pedri and Ferran Torres will likely appear from the bench in the second half.
Spain Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Luis de la Fuente
GK: U. Simón
RB: P. Porro | CB: P. Cubarsí | CB: A. Laporte | LB: M. Cucurella
CM: Rodri (C) | CM: F. Ruiz
RM: L. Yamal | AM: D. Olmo | LM: A. Baena
CF: M. Oyarzabal
ARGENTINA TEAM NEWS
Lionel Scaloni will stick to the same game plan and starting eleven who got them here. Giuliano Simeone’s pace, athleticism and aggressive nature in the starting role gave Argentina more legs than Rodrigo De Paul had offered, while his tactical fouling broke up England’s rhythm and slowed the game on Argentina’s terms. De Paul made a big impact off the bench after coming on in the 72nd minute and he will play a similar role here.
Lautaro Martínez had an impact off the bench again, scoring the winner. He also scored against Switzerland and registered an assist against Egypt. We’ll see him introduced at some point, with Julián Álvarez continuing to partner Lionel Messi up top tasked with doing double defensive duty.
Cristian Romero got through the full 90 minutes against England, a positive sign after being substituted at 105 minutes against Switzerland while managing the right knee issue that sidelined him at the end of Tottenham Hotspur’s season. Argentina have nursed him through the entire tournament, but the semifinal suggests the worst may be behind him.
Argentina Predicted Lineup 4-1-3-2
Manager: Lionel Scaloni
GK: E. Martínez
RB: N. Molina | CB: C. Romero | CB: L. Martínez | LB: N. Tagliafico
DM: L. Paredes
CM: G. Simeone | CM: E. Fernández | CM: A. Mac Allister
CF: L. Messi (C) | CF: J. Álvarez
SPAIN VS. ARGENTINA MATCH BETTING ANALYSIS
Spain were magnificent against France, arguably the best attacking team in the tournament. La Roja bossed the midfield from start to finish, with Fabián Ruiz and Rodri setting a new record for completed passes at a single World Cup with a staggering 655. It was total control.
But I think Spain were aided by Didier Deschamps’ decision to stick with his 4-2-3-1. Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni were completely overrun in central midfield with the supply chain to the front four cut off. You have to wonder if Deschamps is regretting not switching to a 4-3-3 and bringing in Manu Koné or Warren Zaïre-Emery to add cover, physicality and protection through the middle. That extra body would have changed the complexion of the game entirely.
Argentina’s setup could disrupt Spain’s control. Scaloni packed central midfield against England, choosing to compress the center, restrict short passing options and disrupt the flow of the game through persistent tactical fouling. Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister, Leandro Paredes and Simeone — four bodies through the middle compared to France’s two. Spain repeating their midfield dominance against a side that commits twice the numbers centrally is a different proposition entirely. Rodri, Fabián Ruiz and Dani Olmo may not find the same time and space they enjoyed in Dallas.
So where does Spain’s attacking threat come from? The wide areas. And that happens to be where Argentina have been most vulnerable. Every goal Argentina have conceded in this tournament — against England, Switzerland, Egypt, Cape Verde and Jordan — originated from crosses into the box or wide area play.
Spain have the players and quality to exploit that. Pedro Porro has two goals from right-back, Marc Cucurella has two assists from left-back and Álex Baena has contributed a goal and an assist from the left. They have options from the bench in their explosive winger Nico Williams, who’s getting fitter by the day, Ferran Torres and Yéremy Pino.
The jewel in their crown is Lamine Yamal. The generational talent has one goal to his name against Saudi Arabia. That’s understandable considering how he arrived at this tournament. A serious hamstring injury sustained at Barcelona in late April cast doubt over whether he’d even make the plane, and Spain managed his minutes carefully in the early stages before building him up through the knockout rounds.
Against Belgium, he started brightly but faded as the match wore on — a sign the injury was still limiting him. Against France, the output looked modest on paper — no shots — but the performance told a different story. Yamal was far more creative, winning the penalty for the opening goal and creating one big chance. His intelligent movement and tactical work rate contributed to Spain’s control of the match. He’s improving with every game, and the final is the one you’d want him peaking for.
Then there’s Lionel Messi. At 39, what he’s doing on this stage is unbelievable. Eight goals, four assists and leading nearly every attacking category for Argentina in what could be his final World Cup. Against England, he read the game like only he can — identifying space on the right side and gravitating toward it to set up both goals. On the equalizer, instead of whipping in the corner first time, he played short, received the ball back and drew Elliot Anderson toward him to give Fernández the space he needed to get Argentina back on level terms. Minutes later he recycled another set piece, delivering the cross that Martínez headed home at the far post. The years slow the legs but not the brain.
Sunday’s final is the changing of the guard. Yamal is the next big thing in football, a 19-year-old with the world at his feet who should go on to dominate the game and pick up the mantle from the GOAT himself. The only thing left to decide is whether the trophy changes hands too.
SPAIN VS. ARGENTINA BETTING PICK
Again, I feel I have to address the favorable decisions going Argentina’s way. Against England, they committed 12 fouls in the first half alone with Simeone responsible for five, yet only Martínez was booked before the break, with Romero and De Paul cautioned after halftime. I think they’ll approach this game the same way — being overly physical, committing tactical fouls to disrupt the game and Spain’s rhythm, targeting Yamal and Olmo like they targeted Jude Bellingham and Anderson to see what referee Slavko Vinčić and VAR will tolerate.
We also have to take into consideration the halftime show. FIFA reports it will be 20 to 26 minutes, but with the performance taking place on the field and reportedly lasting 11 minutes, the actual delay could stretch longer as the stage, equipment and performers are set up and taken down. That extended break is worth noting for what comes next.
Argentina will sit in, compress the midfield and make this ugly in the first half. Spain won’t panic, but breaking down a packed central block takes time, patience and precision. The extended halftime break only adds to the case for a slow start, with both sides knowing they can reset and regroup after an unusually long interval.
The conditions in New Jersey reinforce that. Wildfire smoke drifting down from Canada is expected to impact air quality, with temperatures around 82°F forecast by Weather.com. Neither side will want to expend unnecessary energy early, particularly Argentina, who will be content to conserve energy, frustrate Spain and keep the game tight until the second half.
Everything points to a low-scoring first half, and there are a few ways to play this. You can bet the Correct Score of 0-0 at +140. Effectively the same bet but at better odds is Under 0.5 Goals First Half at +143. You can bet the draw at -105, which covers you if it’s 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2, etc. Instead, I’m playing Second Half Highest Scoring Half at -105. If there’s a goal in the first half, we have the security of this cashing if there are two or more in the second — a possibility given what’s at stake and how both sides have rallied late in games throughout this tournament.
If and when Argentina push forward in this game, Spain have the tools to handle it in a way England couldn’t. The Three Lions capitulated after going 1-0 up, letting Argentina take control of the game. Tuchel went to a back five and sacrificed width, taking Anthony Gordon off. His side sat deep and afforded Argentina the space to build pressure. Messi exploited the space on the right and the rest is history. Spain won’t do that. If Argentina push forward, Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Dani Olmo or Pedri will show to receive the ball and pass their way out of danger, dragging Spain up the pitch and relieving pressure on their back line. In the latter stages, Yamal, Baena, Williams or Pino can do the same with their ball-carrying ability and pace — something England were simply incapable of doing.
Spain have all the tools to beat this Argentina side. They’ll keep possession, slow the game down and control the tempo. I stand by what I said in my England vs. Argentina Preview — Argentina are not a strong team physically and the numbers back it up. Per Sofascore, Spain are ranked 17th in distance covered at this tournament, averaging 102.8 km per game. Argentina are dead last in 48th, covering just 81.6 km. Argentina have also played extra time twice; Spain haven’t played any. And the age gap favors La Roja — Spain’s starting eleven against France averaged 26.6 years old compared to Argentina’s 29.3 against England. The longer this game goes, the more those legs matter.
Looking at the rest of the markets, I do like Spain to Win to Zero at +270. They held France to 0.31 xG from 10 shots and have conceded just once all tournament — a Charles De Ketelaere header against Belgium. If any defense is equipped to end Argentina’s scoring run, it’s this one. But La Albiceleste have scored two or more in every game at this tournament, and I’m not willing to bet against that record — or the magic of Messi — despite Spain’s physical advantage, tactical superiority in the wide areas and ability to dominate possession.
Instead, I’m backing Spain to Score First at -125 and Spain Moneyline at +130. Argentina’s approach of sitting in and committing tactical fouls works when the other side tries to carry the ball through central midfield — Spain won’t give them that opportunity. They’ll pass their way out of it. Argentina, who won’t be adventurous until they need to be, will allow Spain to dominate and eventually find the opening goal. Nine of Argentina’s 11 goals in the knockout phase have come in the 79th minute or later — they’re a second-half team who strike late, which only strengthens the case for Spain scoring first. Once ahead, I think Spain can pick Argentina off on the counter with their quality in the wide areas.
Messi is the greatest to ever do it and the best player at this tournament. This Spain side are better than any one man. Back La Roja.
Spain vs. Argentina Betting Pick: Second Half Highest Scoring Half -105
Spain vs. Argentina Betting Pick: Spain to Score First -125
Spain vs. Argentina Betting Pick: Spain Moneyline +130
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