Spain vs. Argentina
New York/New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Sunday, July 19th, 3:00 p.m. ET
After six weeks of action, here we are. Time for the biggest fixture in soccer, the World Cup Final. For the first time ever, the match will be contested between the current holders of both the European Championships and Copa America as Spain meets Argentina.
I put an undervalued Spain up against France in their semi-final clash for this column in midweek; they didn’t disappoint, and I’m going in again. Taking them to win in regular time looks to be where the value lies in this showpiece matchup.
Luis de la Fuente’s side once again displayed their relentless ball retention, high-intensity pressing and elite defensive structure, limiting the fearsome French attack to feeding off scraps. Mbappe & Co. mustered a dismal 0.31 expected goals as Spain kept a record sixth clean sheet of the tournament, meaning they have conceded just one goal in beating the likes of Belgium, Portugal and France en route to the final.
Rodri is back to his Ballon d’Or-winning best, taking control of the midfield, with Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal providing the creative sparks, the latter getting fitter by the game. Five-goal Mikel Oyarzabal remains quietly prolific, and after his emphatic penalty kick in the semi-final, he now has 18 goals in his last 20 international appearances. He also got the winner in the Euro final in 2024.
Argentina hasn’t overly impressed me throughout the tournament, carried largely by the brilliance of Lionel Messi and his eight goals and four assists. They have needed to dig deep to make it to the final, needing extra time to clamber past Cape Verde, coming from 2-0 down to Egypt with 79 minutes on the clock to win 3-2, then hitting two late goals to beat England 2-1 in the semi.
Thomas Tuchel’s tactics have been widely slammed as his side surrendered a position of strength by sitting incredibly deep and inviting Messi to hurt them, which he eventually did. Spain will not take that approach; they will dominate the ball, make their opponents work incredibly hard in the 90° heat while restricting their touches in dangerous areas to a minimum.
Rather than backing Spain to lift the trophy at -165, taking them on the moneyline offers the value at plus money. Their defensive discipline and midfield superiority against an Argentina side that has relied on moments of (Messi) magic and comeback victories make them a solid play to finish the job in regulation.
World Cup Best Bet: Spain vs Argentina – Spain Moneyline at +128
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