EPL Bets and Predictions November 2-4:
Wolves vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET
This week, my EPL best bet comes in a big clash at the bottom of the table. Both sides moved up one place last match day after positive results. Wolves climbed off the bottom of the table on goal difference, while Crystal Palace moved out of the relegation zone at the expense of Ipswich.
Palace beat Aston Villa in the League Cup in midweek, but it was a heavily rotated Villa side who have bigger fish to fry, so it was the surprise defeat of Tottenham last weekend that I think is influencing the prices here. The key factor there was that win coming at home, and on their day, the Eagles can make Selhurst Park a real fortress.
Regular readers of this column will know I have been very critical of Wolves across the opening weeks of the season, fading them on more than one occasion. However, in the last couple of matches, I have seen glimpses of recovery and massive improvement.
Having switched to a back three, Gary O’Neil has his side looking much tighter defensively but also a lot sharper going forward. Matheus Cunha has stepped up and scored his fourth league goal of the season when netting a 93rd-minute equalizer for his side in the 2-2 draw with Brighton last weekend.
This is the first of two fixtures that could define their season but certainly the future of their manager. Following this match, they host the side who have replaced them at the bottom of the table, Southampton.
The changing of fortune started with a game versus Manchester City, where most people expected them to get blown away. They played well and were so unlucky not to get at least a point, but for a wonder strike from Gvardiol and a hotly disputed added-on-time goal from John Stones, they would have done.
Craig Dawson marked Erling Haaland out of the game which will give them confidence that if they can do that against him, they can do it against anyone. After that performance, I felt they would beat someone at a big price. This could be the week, but I am adding a little security by taking them tie no bet, meaning a full refund of our stake should the game end all square.
Palace does not convince me despite those two recent wins and the second one plays a part in my thinking here. They put a strong side out in the cup game, while Wolves, having already been knocked out, have had the week to focus and prepare for this fixture.
Two of Oliver Glasner’s best players, Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze, came off with injuries in the first half at Villa Park. Talisman Eze left the field due to a hamstring strain and must be a massive doubt to make this game. That would be a hammer blow to Palace’s hopes.
I am playing it a little safe by taking tie no bet, but at odds of -103, I can afford to do so. If the Palace team news goes our way, that price will be long gone come kickoff on Saturday afternoon.
EPL Bet: Wolves vs Crystal Palace – Wolves tie no bet at -103.
Southampton vs. Everton
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
When I first looked over the odds of this week’s slate, I couldn’t believe Southampton were priced up as the favorites to win this clash. Since then, money has come for them to make them an even warmer order. I must take advantage by getting Everton onside.
At the time of writing, Everton tie no bet is -103, but judging how the market is going, it could become plus money by the time you read this. I’m shocked. Southampton’s Premier League record this season is played nine, won none, drawn one and lost eight.
That draw came against fellow newly promoted side Ipswich, who have yet to win this season. Saints have scored the fewest goals and conceded the third most with a manager who refuses to change a style of play that is not working at this level.
The only reason I could possibly see for a lack of support in Everton is their player of the season so far, Dwight McNeil, is rated as 50/50 to make this match. Even without him, Sean Dyche has enough in his squad to overcome that loss and get a positive result from a trip to the south coast.
Everton started their campaign poorly, but their performances and underlying numbers were a lot better than the results they were getting. That has now become more balanced after a run of six games without defeat across all competitions.
The Toffees are not entertaining. They know their limitations and go out to get the job done, with more substance over style. Last time out, they played Fulham and snatched an undeserved tie, but that’s how they play, and Dyche has made a career out of setting his sides up that way.
Southampton will look to play pretty, with lots of possession and attempts to pass their way through the lines. Everton will be happy to let them try to do that. The visitors will be physical, play to their strengths and make the most of any set pieces they get—an area that happens to be a Southampton weakness, and that is being kind. In truth, they are diabolical at defending them.
The price is too tempting to ignore, but in case the team news doesn’t go in our favor, the tie no bet offers a nice layer of security.
EPL Bet: Southampton vs Everton – Everton tie no bet at -103.
Fulham vs. Brentford
Monday, 4:00 p.m. ET
For the final bet of the week, I am keeping it simple. I am taking Brentford on the Moneyline at +260.
I can’t believe the discrepancy in the prices of these two teams with Fulham priced at minus money in places. There has been a slight move for Brentford, and I expect more, so this looks like one to get on early as the prices begin to move closer together.
Fulham are 10th in the table. Brentford is one place above them having gained one point more, with both sides conceding as many goals as they have scored. They really are that evenly matched, yet not in the betting odds. That equals value.
The Cottagers are winless in three, and although they picked up plenty of plaudits for the first game in that sequence at Manchester City, they didn’t pick up any points. A disappointing performance against Aston Villa followed. They lost convincingly 3-1 despite taking an early lead. Last weekend, they went in front again only to concede an added-on time equalizer to Everton.
People will point to Brentford’s road record, which stands at four games played and four losses. But those four games were against Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester United. The Bees tend to fall short against the bigger sides but come into their own against the teams on a similar level to them such as Fulham.
Brentford also have an excellent record at Craven Cottage. Since losing in the old Third Division in 1990, they have visited here 13 times in various competitions and only been beaten once and winning on six occasions, including 3-0 last season.
With Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa back in tandem after injury, Thomas Frank has a lethal strike partnership to call on. They both scored twice in the 4-3 defeat of Ipswich last weekend and they can cause the home defense all kinds of problems here to extend that excellent record at a very nice price.
EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs Brentford – Brentford Moneyline at +260.
