France vs. England
Miami Stadium, Miami, Florida
Saturday, July 18th, 5 p.m. ET
The dread on my face as I write this says it all. England takes on France in the World Cup third-place playoff after crashing out in heartbreaking fashion, leading 1-0 in the 85th minute before conceding twice in the next seven minutes against Argentina. France, meanwhile, were comfortably second best in their semi-final defeat to Spain, so this now becomes a battle to see which side can recover mentally and finish the tournament on a high.
For me, the motivation factor favors France in more ways than one. Kylian Mbappé is still chasing the Golden Boot and has the chance to further cement his status as one of the greatest World Cup players to ever live. This is also Didier Deschamps’ final game in charge of France, his 187th match as manager, and I think the players will be desperate to send him off with one last victory.
I’m not convinced England will approach this game with the same motivation. Thomas Tuchel may rotate the squad and give opportunities to players who have featured less throughout the tournament, but beyond that, there isn’t much for England to play for. After the way the semi-final ended, recovering mentally for a third-place playoff won’t be easy.
The trends don’t do England any favors either. They have played in two previous World Cup third-place matches and lost both, while just one of their last nine meetings with France has ended in an England victory. England have also lost seven consecutive World Cup matches against teams that were ranked inside FIFA’s top 10 before the tournament began.
For me, everything points towards France. The motivation, the historical trends and the overall feel of the matchup all lean in their favor. Some people dismiss the third-place playoff, but I still think there is value to be found, and France on the Moneyline at -105 is my favorite play.
World Cup Best Bet: France ML -105
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