VSiN soccer contributor, finder of “The Angle” for college basketball, and Follow The Money producer Luke DiVasta shares his favorite MLS picks for Saturday, May 9.
Odds as of May 6, 10 p.m. ET
Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami
1:00 p.m. ET
Toronto FC (+205) | Draw (+300) | Inter Miami (-105)
Over 3.5 Goals (+125) | Under 3.5 Goals (-155)
Toronto FC | 3-5-3 | 8th in Eastern Conference
Inter Miami | 5-4-2 | 3rd in Eastern Conference
This Saturday, we start focusing on Inter Miami and Lionel Messi. Preseason rankings and odds had them as one of the main favorites to take down the MLS. Inter Miami have cruised through the beginning of the season and sit in the top three in the East. Scoring goals has not been an issue for the club, as they are tied for first in the Eastern Conference in goals scored (22). Their issues arise when it comes to defending, having allowed 19 goals this season.
Inter Miami have run into a slight bump in form. First, they drew against the New England Revolution 1-1 two weeks ago. Then, this past weekend, after leading 3-0 in the first half, they found a way to blow it and drop all the points, falling 4-3 to Orlando City. This club absolutely fires off shots at home, averaging 22 shot attempts per game, which ranks second in the MLS. When they travel, that number falls sharply to 12.9 shots per game.
Toronto FC has had some recent success against Miami. Last season, the two sides faced each other twice in the MLS, and both matches ended in a 1-1 draw. Toronto is coming off a tough loss in their domestic cup, falling to Ottawa 3-1. However, in their last nine MLS matches, they have only lost once—two weeks ago to Atlanta United. Outside of that, Toronto has found a way to squeak points out of nearly every situation.
Toronto ranks seventh in the MLS in shots allowed per game (10.7), and when they are at home, that number improves to just 9.6 shots allowed. Their 2-5-1 home record this season leaves a lot to be desired, but getting points out of almost every match in their own building has to count for something.
Breaking down the three-way moneyline angle, when a road team is slightly minus money, I tend to think we are being baited into betting them. Miami will be the public favorite—everyone knows it is Messi’s club. I just think if they were in a better spot, that number would be juiced more. Give me this Toronto side to secure points at home again.
Pick: Toronto FC Win or Draw (-130)
2026 MLS Picks: 5-4 (+2.9 Units)
