Spain vs Austria | 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 | Thursday, July 2 | 3 p.m. ET | SoFi Stadium | Inglewood
Spain (-300) | Draw (+425) | Austria (+900)
Over 2.5 Goals (-120) | Under 2.5 Goals (-105)
Spain -1.5 (+100) | Austria +1.5 (-125)
Thursday’s first knockout game is an all-European affair with Spain—one of the pre-tournament favorites—and an Austrian side on the rise under Ralf Rangnick.
Spain, the European champions, won Group H with seven points, securing their spot in the Round of 32. Their opening fixture put the brakes on that favorites tag, as Cape Verde held them to a 0-0 draw, Spain’s attack unable to take their chances. They bounced back with a comfortable 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia and wrapped up top spot by defeating Uruguay 1-0 in their final group match.
Austria’s 1-1-1 record was enough to secure second place in Group J and edge out Algeria on goal difference. A 3-1 win over Jordan, a 2-0 loss to Argentina, and a dramatic, last-gasp 3-3 draw against Algeria was enough to advance to the knockout stage for the first time since 1954.
The group stage is behind them. What’s left to answer is whether Rangnick’s gegenpressing philosophy can rattle a Spain side still searching for its attacking rhythm and its first World Cup knockout win since the final in 2010.
SPAIN TEAM NEWS
A rash of injuries has gutted Luis de la Fuente’s attacking options heading into the knockout stage. Nico Williams suffered a right adductor injury in stoppage time of the Uruguay match while Yeremy Pino narrowly avoided a fractured collarbone but remains sidelined with a shoulder sprain. New Liverpool signing Víctor Muñoz, meanwhile, is still working back from a calf injury that flared up again during his recovery.
This means we’ll see Alex Baena continue on the left side of the attacking three after getting on the scoresheet against Uruguay. It’s a decision you won’t hear me complaining about—I’ll fully support any player with Alex B. on the back of their shirt.
With limited attacking options, I think we’ll see Mikel Merino lose his place in central midfield. The Premier League champion has performed well up top for Arsenal and will provide much-needed backup. I expect Dani Olmo to replace him in the middle of the park, meaning Gavi and Fabián Ruiz will have to settle for a seat on the bench.
Spain Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Luis de la Fuente
GK: U. Simón
RB: M. Llorente | CB: P. Cubarsí | CB: A. Laporte | LB: M. Cucurella
CM: Rodri (C) | CM: D. Olmo | CM: Pedri
RW: L. Yamal | CF: M. Oyarzabal | LW: A. Baena
AUSTRIA TEAM NEWS
Rangnick may have to reshuffle his pack after Marko Arnautovic and David Alaba—both the wrong side of 30 and susceptible to injury—picked up slight knocks in the final group game.
Stefan Posch continues to feature despite suffering a broken jaw in a collision with Jordan’s goalkeeper in the opener. Fortunately, he doesn’t require surgery and is wearing a custom-fitted protective face brace to be able to compete.
Kalajdžić’s injury-time equalizer against Algeria will be a great confidence boost for the Wolves striker, who has suffered three ACL injuries in recent years.
Austria Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Ralf Rangnick
GK: A. Schlager
RB: S. Posch | CB: P. Lienhart | CB: D. Alaba (C) | LB: P. Mwene
CM: N. Seiwald | CM: X. Schlager
RM: K. Laimer | AM: R. Schmid | LM: M. Sabitzer
CF: M. Arnautović
MATCH BREAKDOWN
Currently, this Spain attack is a shadow of the fast, direct, and dynamic version that lifted the trophy at Euro 2024. Coming into the tournament, de la Fuente gambled on the health of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams—the stars of Euro 2024—and it hasn’t paid off so far.
Yamal—who scored against Saudi Arabia—is still getting up to full fitness and will need to be close to it for the Round of 16, where Spain will likely face Portugal if they get past Croatia. Williams, who last started May 10, has been struck down with more bad luck—a reckless and needless De la Cruz challenge in injury time that could end his tournament.
Fortunately for La Roja, the defense has stepped up and, alongside Mexico, is the only other side yet to concede. Goalkeeper Unai Simón has only had to make four saves from 15 shots totaling 1.20 xG. The back four of Marcos Llorente, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte and Marc Cucurella have been solid, helped by the central midfield three dominating possession, averaging 69.4% of the ball — the highest of any team in the tournament.
Austria won’t let Spain stroll to those numbers, though. Rangnick will instruct his players to press Spain’s midfield three aggressively, looking to win the ball in advanced areas and hit them on the counter rather than sitting back and inviting pressure.
Arnautović—who’s set to lead the line—is a technically gifted, physically imposing forward known for his aerial dominance and ability to hold up the ball, but at 37 he’s not going to sustain the pressing intensity over 90 minutes or burst forward at pace once Austria wins the ball back. Austria’s backup options, Michael Gregoritsch (6’4″) and Kalajdžić (6’7″), also fit the target man profile rather than being counter-attacking forwards who can threaten in behind.
Austria have the tools to ask questions of a Spanish defense that other sides haven’t troubled. Whether they have the legs and the finishing to do it when the moment arrives is another matter.
THE BET
Spain’s defensive record speaks for itself — three clean sheets across 270 minutes of group-stage football. The concern has been the attack, not the back line.
Austria’s group stage doesn’t ease that concern. Argentina won 2-0—Messi’s penalty miss notwithstanding—with just 54% possession and restricted Rangnick’s side to six shots and 0.53 xG. Considering the way de la Fuente has constructed this Spain side, it’s hard to see Austria coming anywhere close to seeing that much of the ball, giving them fewer opportunities to test Simón.
With Yamal continuing to build his fitness and form, Spain will have enough to wrap this game in 90 minutes and book their place in the Round of 16.
Spain’s defensive solidity is the most consistent thing about this team right now. Back it.
Pick: Spain Win to Zero (-115)
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