MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, July 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:35 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
The White Sox are giving Noah Schultz his first MLB start since May 24 after he posted a 5.82 ERA in six starts, but his 4.76 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings points toward positivity. The Orioles counter with Dean Kremer, who has not made an MLB start since April 18 and owns a 4.09 ERA in his two starts this season. He is tasked with facing a White Sox lineup that ranks eighth in the league in scoring with more than 4.8 runs per game. The Orioles also have the weaker bullpen, ranking 23rd in ERA at 4.44, while the White Sox rank 16th at 4.15.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +118
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox +104
1:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore owns a 4.05 ERA but a lower 3.42 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs allowed and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Guardians lineup that entered Tuesday averaging fewer than 3.1 runs per game over its previous 23 games. The Rangers rank 23rd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while Guardians starter Joey Cantillo owns a 3.87 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.1 walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 13th in ERA at 3.94, while the Rangers rank 12th at 3.81.
Pick: Guardians vs. Rangers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
1:35 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox
While the Red Sox offense has heated up recently, it still ranks last in the American League in home scoring with fewer than 3.7 runs per game. They face Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez, who owns a 3.44 ERA and a 2.75 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs allowed and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that leads the league in scoring with more than 5.3 runs per game. Boston counters with Payton Tolle, who has posted a 2.78 ERA while allowing 0.8 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings, and he is supported by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.20.
Pick: Nationals vs. Red Sox Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton pitches to a great deal of contact and may be due for regression on his 2.39 ERA, as he also owns a 5.06 fielding independent with six strikeouts and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. He catches the Yankees at the right time, as they entered Tuesday having scored just 31 total runs over their past 12 games. The Tigers have struggled offensively as well, ranking 27th in road run production with fewer than four runs per game. Yankees starter Will Warren owns a 3.75 ERA and a 3.60 fielding independent with nine strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -140 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -163 and Total 8.7
2:20 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
While it will be a warm day in Chicago with the wind blowing out heavily, the Padres own the league’s lowest-scoring offense at 3.9 runs per game. They face Colin Rea, who owns a 4.80 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 11th in ERA at 3.81. The Padres rank fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.25 and send Walker Buehler to the mound, who has pitched better than his 3.81 ERA would indicate with a 3.42 fielding independent while allowing 0.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +118 and Under 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres +109 and Total 10.8
3:07 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays were expected to start Patrick Corbin in this game but decided Tuesday night to move him to the bullpen. Spencer Miles will either start or serve as the bulk pitcher after posting a 3.00 ERA with 0.7 home runs allowed and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He should also benefit from facing a Mets lineup that ranks last in the National League in road scoring with 3.7 runs per game. Mets starter Freddy Peralta owns a 4.53 ERA but a better 4.16 fielding independent. He is also in a rough stretch, having allowed 20 total runs, 17 earned, over his last four starts.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -102 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -132 and Total 8.1
6:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Though Phillies starter Zack Wheeler is recording his fewest strikeouts per nine innings since 2020 at 8.8, he has been outstanding with a 2.04 ERA while allowing one home run and 2.3 walks per nine innings. Pirates starter Paul Skenes has had some uncharacteristic struggles recently, but he still owns a 3.10 ERA with a lower 2.75 fielding independent while recording 11 strikeouts and allowing 0.9 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 17th in scoring with 4.4 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates vs. Phillies Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
7:15 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Though Braves starter Reynaldo López is not fully stretched out to provide the length of a traditional starter, he is backed by a bullpen that leads the league in ERA at 2.77. López owns a 3.47 ERA but a higher 4.47 fielding independent with 4.1 walks per nine innings. While he is recording only 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy is generating even fewer whiffs with 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings and appears due for regression on his 3.12 ERA, as he owns a 4.28 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 19th in ERA at 4.37.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -125 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -169 and Total 9.2
7:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Seth Lugo has once again been one of the club’s most reliable pitchers, posting a 4.18 ERA with a lower 4.04 fielding independent while allowing one home run and three walks per nine innings. Rays starter Shane McClanahan has been solid with a 3.30 ERA while allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings and recording 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Although the heat and wind should help offense in this game, the Royals have struggled at the plate all season, ranking 21st in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Royals Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
9:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics
Athletics starter JT Ginn has gotten off to a nice start this season with a 3.15 ERA, but there are concerns about regression, as he also owns a 4.01 fielding independent with 3.7 walks and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in road scoring with more than six runs per game. Shohei Ohtani, who owns a stellar 1.58 ERA, was scheduled to make this start but was scratched late Tuesday, making a bullpen game or a minor leaguer the more likely option.
Pick: Dodgers vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.8
