Rome tennis best bets for May 9th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia over the next two weeks. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are going to be motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Friday, May 9th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re in the midst of the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, and we’re covering all of it at VSiN — whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Vilius Gaubas vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov looked like he was coming for a spot in the top-15 early in the year. The Canadian won a title in Dallas, beating Miomir Kecmanovic, Taylor Fritz, Tomas Machac, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud along the way. It was one of the tougher draws you’ll see at a non-1000 event, but he was able to get through it and looked a lot like the guy that was 10th in the rankings in 2020. However, Shapovalov comes into this match after having lost four of his last five matches. The transition to clay just hasn’t been good for him, which probably shouldn’t be surprising considering he’s .500 on the surface in his career. Well, with Shapovalov in poor form, this is a good opportunity for Gaubas to potentially steal a spot in the Round of 32.
Gaubas has been awesome on clay at the Challenger-level throughout his career, and he has actually won two events on the dirt since the start of August. He also went to the final at a Challenger event in Rome just a few weeks back, losing to a talented Matteo Gigante in that match. Over the last 52 weeks, Gaubas has won 30 matches on clay at the Challenger level, and he has also proven himself to be capable of beating ATP-level talent. We saw that in his win over Damir Dzumhur in the Round of 128.
This is just a match between one player that loves this surface and another that hasn’t been great on it. So, while Shapovalov definitely has more talent than Gaubas, I’m not sure that’ll mean anything. Gaubas is a Spanish-trained player with a great forehand, and that’s a dangerous combination on the dirt. He should be the one that dictates rallies here, and I expect him to get a lot of errors out of Shapovalov. I also like Gaubas’ ability to return, as Shapovalov’s serve can come and go.
Pick: Gaubas +1.5 Sets (-138 – 1.5 units) & Gaubas ML (+205 – 0.5 units)
Luciano Darderi vs. Jack Draper
Draper’s run to the Madrid Open final confirmed what I suspected: his game is built for clay, even if British players rarely thrive on the surface. Draper’s lefty serve and heavy forehand gave him an edge in most of his matches, but he came up just short against Casper Ruud in a tight final. While he’ll be disappointed not to have closed out his second Masters 1000 title of the year, Draper’s performance in Spain was a breakthrough, pushing him into the world’s top five and proving he can hang with the best on any surface.
Now, Draper heads to Rome after an emotionally and physically taxing week, and history shows that it can be hard for players to back up big results. The conditions in Rome will be slower and less favorable to his power game, and fatigue could be a factor. That opens the door for Darderi, a strong clay-courter playing at home, to make things interesting. If Draper isn’t at his best, he could be in for a real test, and Darderi has the tools to take advantage. While Draper remains the clear favorite, this is a spot where an upset — or at least a dropped set — wouldn’t shock anyone. Darderi is going to have nothing to lose, making him more dangerous than he already is.
Pick: Darderi +1.5 Sets (-107 – 1.5 units) & Darderi ML (+300 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
