Senegal vs. Norway
New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Monday June 22nd – 8:00 p.m. ET
Norway (+135) | Draw (+250) | Senegal (+195)
Over 2.5 Goals (-105) | Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
One of the best strikers on the planet returns to action Monday as Erling Haaland and Norway (#26 FIFA Ranking) take on Senegal (#16). All eyes will be on the Golden Boot hopeful as he looks to continue his run. Two goals in a 4–1 win over Iraq (#60) got the Norwegians off to a perfect start. Norway created 2.87 xG (expected goals) in their opening match, securing three goals plus an own goal, while Iraq managed just 1.03 xG.
Senegal put on an impressive performance even in defeat. They held France (#2) scoreless for over an hour before the inevitable Kylian Mbappé made himself known. The French were always going to be too much for Senegal in the end, with Senegal pulling one back late in extra time before conceding again. They created 0.98 xG on the night while limiting France to just 1.77 xG.
Norway has gone four matches without a loss but three straight without a clean sheet. Both teams have scored in seven of Norway’s last eight matches, and five of the last seven have gone Over 2.5 goals.
The handicap gets really interesting when you look at the three-way moneyline. Norway are one of the fan favorites of this tournament — everyone knows Erling Haaland’s name and everyone wants to see him score goals and lead this team on a magical run. That may well happen, but why are they listed as (+135) favorites? This line looks like a complete trap.
Senegal has world-class talent from some of the best clubs on the planet. Ibrahim Mbaye of PSG scored the lone goal in their opening match. Striker Nicolas Jackson, on loan at Bayern Munich from Chelsea, has the ability to score at any time. Add former Liverpool speedster Sadio Mané on the left, and this is a dangerous attack. With France taking on Iraq in the other group match and expected to win comfortably, Senegal will be fighting for every point to secure a third-place finish — though they are more than capable of taking all three here.
I like the spread in this one. I found Senegal at +0.5 at a better price than the double chance on DraftKings. It’s a larger play given the juice, but I think it’s worth it. If you’re not comfortable laying that price, the “Tie No Bet” market is worth a look — Senegal can be found at +115, with the bet voided if the match ends in a draw. It is a preference among soccer bettors, but I always choose the path where a draw can also win me money.
Pick: Senegal +0.5 (-160) [2 UNITS]
