France vs Iraq | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group I | Monday, June 22 | 5PM EST | Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia
France (-1400) | Draw (+1100) | Iraq (+3000)
Over 3.5 Goals (-110) | Under 3.5 Goals (-115)
France -2.5 (-130) | Iraq +2.5 (+105)
Iraq jump out of the frying pan and into the fire Monday afternoon. Fresh off a 4-1 drubbing by Norway, they head to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia to face the current tournament favorites France (+400 to win it all).
Les Bleus were second best for large spells against Senegal, but a half-time tactical reshuffle proved to be the catalyst. Mbappé stole the headlines with a double past Edouard Mendy, the second taking him clear of Olivier Giroud as France’s outright record scorer. Substitute Bradley Barcola added gloss with a delicate chipped finish. France were far from flawless, but they moved up through the gears in the second half to record a comfortable 3-1 win.
Iraq showed brief promise, drawing level through Aymen Hussein’s header, but defensive frailty proved their undoing. A mix-up between Zaid Tahseen and goalkeeper Jalal Hassan was swiftly punished by Haaland, who claimed his second on the stroke of half-time. Ostigard was left unmarked to power home from a corner, and a Hussein own goal completed the misery. The errors were costly and the 4-1 scoreline was ultimately deserved.
Iraq will need to address their defensive frailties if they are to have any chance of denying a France side who are finding their rhythm.
FRANCE TEAM NEWS
Didier Deschamps has no injury or suspension concerns ahead of this game. He will make changes, but they will be positional not personnel, with Michael Olise moving to the center to play behind Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé shifting to the right.
France Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Didier Deschamps
GK: M. Maignan
RB: J. Koundé | CB: W. Saliba | CB: D. Upamecano | LB: T. Hernández
CM: A. Tchouaméni | CM: A. Rabiot
RM: O. Dembélé | AM: M. Olise | LM: D. Doué
CF: K. Mbappé (C)
IRAQ TEAM NEWS
Graham Arnold also arrives at this game with a full squad at his disposal. With defeat all but guaranteeing elimination from the tournament, it will be interesting to see if Arnold risks it all and goes for a more attacking set-up.
Center-back Zaid Tahseen picked up a yellow card against Norway and will be suspended for their final group game against Senegal if he goes into the referee’s book again.
Iraq Predicted Lineup 4-4-2
Manager: Graham Arnold
GK: J. Hassan (C)
RB: H. Ali | CB: Z. Tahseen | CB: A. Hashem | LB: M. Doski
RM: I. Bayesh | CM: A. Al-Ammari | CM: Z. Iqbal | LM: A. Jasim
CF: A. Hussein | CF: A. Al-Hamadi
MATCH BREAKDOWN
A lot of people criticized France’s first-half performance against Senegal with the highlight being Alexi Lalas calling them “arrogant” and “casual” during the half-time interval. Zlatan Ibrahimović dismissed this idea entirely post-match saying “It’s not arrogance, it’s confidence. Ignorant people will say it’s arrogance, intelligent people will say it’s confidence” and I agree 100%.
If you’ve followed France closely over the last few years, you’ll know one of the biggest frustrations about them is Didier Deschamps’ pragmatic and conservative approach. The discourse in France centers on his refusal to release the handbrake and allow Les Bleus to flex their full attacking prowess. This is a man who won the World Cup in 2018 and guided them to the final in 2022 — Deschamps has long since earned the right to trust his methods, and with this being his final tournament before stepping down, he isn’t about to change for anyone or anything. This approach can result in performances looking flat at times, but they get the job done efficiently. That describes the Senegal victory to a T.
In the first half, they generated just 0.03 xG from a solitary shot — hardly the output you expect from the tournament favorites — and were lucky not to go a goal behind. But Deschamps’ half-time switch, moving Olise into the center and pushing Dembélé out wide, flipped the contest on its head. The second-half numbers tell the story: 1.75 xG, four big chances, 10 shots, three goals and a stonewall penalty that never was. Senegal simply had no answer for the pace and movement of Mbappé and co., who got in behind their backline several times.
That swing is precisely what Ibrahimović meant. France weren’t second best in the first half so much as in second gear — and the moment they put their foot down, Senegal couldn’t live with them. Knowing you can do that, and choosing when, isn’t arrogance; it’s confidence. It’s also why I backed them to win this tournament in late March at +700.
Bradley Barcola’s impact off the bench underlines the quality and depth Deschamps has at his disposal — but it was Rayan Cherki’s nine-minute cameo that caught my eye. The Manchester City man tried almost too hard to make an impression, forcing the issue rather than letting it come naturally. And that’s exactly the point: every one of these French players sitting on the bench desperately wants to play, wants to be part of this team, and when called upon, they’ll run their socks off to stay in Deschamps’ thoughts. That kind of strength in depth and attitude is what separates the contenders from the rest.
Iraq’s underlying numbers from their Norway defeat make for grim reading. They were pulled apart at times, conceding four goals from 12 shots worth a hefty 2.52 xG, while surrendering five big chances and 61% of possession. Once Norway turned the screw, Iraq simply had no answer.
Norway carry two world-class talents in Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard and ran out comfortable 4-1 winners. France arrive with elite quality in almost every position — if that’s the damage two could help inflict, how do Iraq cope with a side stacked with them?
THE BET
I think it’s pretty obvious where I’m leaning. France carry too much attacking firepower, pace and movement for this Iraq defense to contain. I’m going with a short ladder on France’s Team Total Goals, Over 3.5 and Over 4.5. With Olise moving to the middle, I believe they’ll find their attacking rhythm from the off, not after the break. France enjoyed the second half against Senegal and will want to enjoy this one from kick-off.
Pick: France Team Total Over 3.5 Goals +123 (1 Unit)
Pick: France Team Total Over 4.5 Goals +274 (0.5 Unit)
