Anduril 250 Race the Base at Coronado Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Before last week’s race at Pocono, I gushed about how dominant Denny Hamlin had been in recent weeks and how impressive he was at Pocono in the Next Gen car era. In my final simulation, he wound up with the highest driver rating of the season for any driver, any track. I was not at all surprised when he brought home the checkered flag at +160 odds. Well, if you think those prices are crazy, wait till you hear about this week’s odds for the intriguing race at Naval Base Coronado, where a road course has been set up to honor the nation’s military as it approaches its 250th birthday.
Shane Van Gisbergen, the name synonymous with road course racing lately in the NASCAR Cup Series, is offered as a -160 favorite to win the Anduril 250 Race the Base. Naturally, he is atop the initial simulation as well, but in all honesty, his prospects don’t look as great as Hamlin’s last week, so who knows, maybe the circuit will see an underdog winner, to the delight of the fans and soldiers in attendance.
The Naval Base Coronado road course is a 3.4-mile, 16-turn jaunt through the streets of one of America’s most famous military bases. Because of the uniqueness of the race location and the pomp and circumstance that figures to accompany the celebration of the nation’s 250th birthday, this week’s checkered flag is going to be coveted. Like last year’s unique first event in Mexico City, we have very little to go on, but I have found that general road course handicapping has proven sufficient at races like this. In fact, road courses are typically more predictable than ovals, and I have correspondingly assigned a handicap-ability grade of B for that reason.
Usually, the most important simulation factors at road courses are 1) qualifying/starting spot and 2) recent driver history at road courses. Besides SVG, the drivers we have seen running up front at road courses over the last year have included Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Ty Gibbs. For as much as SVG is clearly the man to beat, perhaps one of these other guys could topple him. Earlier this season, Reddick took the road event at COTA, the only one of the six road course races run over the last calendar year that SVG did not win. Of course, if you’re wondering about Hamlin’s prospects for this week and next at Sonoma, road courses have been like Kryptonite to him recently. In fact, his road course handicap rating for this week ranks 20th in the circuit. There’s nothing quite like a drastic change of track format in NASCAR to abruptly end a winning streak.
Although the returns haven’t been as spectacular as they would have been had favorite Hamlin simply not been dominating races lately, we are on one of the hottest stretches our simulations have ever seen in terms of picking winners. I didn’t even count the unofficial Dover All-Star Race win in the earnings below. From an extended standpoint, if you go back to Race 9 of the 2025 season, we have pegged the winner in 20 races! The returns are around +80 units.
Not surprisingly, the odds board for this week is dominated by the usual road course suspects, with SVG (-160) the significant favorite, followed by Connor Zilisch (+650), Tyler Reddick (+900), Michael McDowell (+1400) and Ty Gibbs (+1600) as the top 5. If SVG has any chink in his road course armor, it would be that he typically doesn’t have good practice sessions, perhaps choosing to try different car setups in hopes of bettering himself for race day. However, he qualifies well and is clearly the most skilled road racer in the bunch.
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Cornado, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Pocono, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 16 races.
Initial Pocono simulation winner: Winner (+1.6 units) – NOW +2.6 units for the season
Final Pocono Simulation winner: Winner Hamlin (+1.6 units) – NOW +34.8 units for the season!
Final Pocono Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: One winner, one loser – total return +0.6 units – NOW +29.1 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Pocono projections: one winner, two losers, Hamlin -200 – total return -1 units – NOW -0.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Pocono projections: two winners, three losers, Hamlin -400, Lason -165 – total return -1 units – Now -4.15 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Pocono projections: seven winners (Hamlin, Larson, Gibbs, Buescher, Reddick, Blaney, Byron), three losers, – total return +3.1 units – Now -6.95 units for the season
The top 10 performance at Pocono was the highlight, as scoring seven winners there actually beat the return on Hamlin winning outright. If you consider that we have had 16 races, and the simulation has predicted 160 drivers as top 10s for the season, or in other words, 160 wagers, a return of -6.95 units is outstanding. Especially with the 20-cent or more lines that DraftKings offers.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter …
My personal top 5 Pocono predictions: three winners, two losers, Hamlin -400, Larson -165, Byron +185 – total return +1.85 units – Now -16 units for the season
Top Pocono Long Shots to win: four losers – total return -4 units – Now -1 unit for the season
Favorites to struggle at Pocono: Bell (26th), Elliott (11th), Wallace (21st), Keselowski (38th) – Now 46 for 61 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
Besides nailing all four drivers I picked to struggle finishing outside the top 10, the top 5 I predicted all finished in the top 9. It was one of my better races of the season. Hopefully the start of a nice trend.
Looking ahead to Coronado on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the six road races run over the last 12 months in the Cup Series, and here are the leaders during that time frame in specific racing categories. Also, like last week, you may have noticed that I limited the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average STARTING POSITION the last six ROAD COURSE races
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 3.33
2. Chase Briscoe: 5
3. Michael McDowell: 6.17
4. Ross Chastain: 7.67
5. Ryan Blaney: 7.83
6. Tyler Reddick: 8.33
…
25. Todd Gilliland: 25.5
26. John Hunter Nemechek: 26.17
27. Austin Dillon: 27.17
28. Austin Hill: 30
29. Ricky Stenhouse: 31.67
30. Erik Jones: 32
Average PRACTICE SPEED last six ROAD COURSE races
1. Ty Gibbs: 8.33
2. AJ Allmendinger: 10.33
3. Shane Van Gisbergen: 10.67
4. William Byron: 11.17
5. Kyle Larson: 11.17
6. Michael McDowell: 11.33
…
25. Ryan Preece: 24.67
26. Joey Logano: 25.5
27. Austin Hill: 26
28. Austin Dillon: 26.33
29. Brad Keselowski: 27.83
30. Denny Hamlin: 29.33
Average RUNNING POSITION last six ROAD COURSE races
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 3
2. Tyler Reddick: 10
3. Chase Briscoe: 10.17
4. Ty Gibbs: 10.83
5. Christopher Bell: 11.33
6. Michael McDowell: 11.83
…
25. Austin Dillon: 23.83
26. Carson Hocevar: 24.67
27. Ricky Stenhouse: 24.67
28. Brad Keselowski: 24.67
29. Erik Jones: 24.83
30. Todd Gilliland: 25.33
Average LAPS LED last six ROAD COURSE races
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 49
2. Tyler Reddick: 10.17
3. Ryan Blaney: 8.83
4. Michael McDowell: 7.33
5. Kyle Larson: 5
6. Chase Briscoe: 4.83
…
15. Connor Zilisch: 0
16. Austin Hill: 0
17. Chase Elliott: 0
18. Joey Logano: 0
19. Daniel Suarez: 0
20. Darrell Wallace: 0
21. Alex Bowman: 0
22. Austin Cindric: 0
23. Denny Hamlin: 0
24. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
25. Zane Smith: 0
26. Austin Dillon: 0
27. Carson Hocevar: 0
28. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
29. Erik Jones: 0
30. Todd Gilliland: 0
Average DRIVER RATING L6 ROAD COURSE races
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 139.8
2. Tyler Reddick: 103.98
3. Michael McDowell: 100.47
4. Chase Briscoe: 98.18
5. Ryan Blaney: 97.05
6. Ty Gibbs: 95.93
…
25. Austin Dillon: 54.35
26. Brad Keselowski: 53.97
27. Erik Jones: 52.67
28. Todd Gilliland: 52.07
29. Ricky Stenhouse: 46.55
30. Carson Hocevar: 45.52
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last six ROAD COURSE races
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 94.83
2. Chase Briscoe: 78.17
3. Christopher Bell: 74
4. Ty Gibbs: 73.83
5. Michael McDowell: 73.33
6. Tyler Reddick: 72.67
…
25. Austin Dillon: 23.33
26. Carson Hocevar: 19.83
27. Zane Smith: 16.83
28. Erik Jones: 14.17
29. Todd Gilliland: 13.83
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 13.5
Best AVERAGE FINISH last six ROAD COURSE races
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 1.17
2. Tyler Reddick: 5.67
3. Austin Hill: 9
4. Christopher Bell: 9.67
5. AJ Allmendinger: 10
6. Ty Gibbs: 10.17
…
25. Todd Gilliland: 23.83
26. Erik Jones: 25
27. Austin Cindric: 25.17
28. Brad Keselowski: 27.5
29. Ricky Stenhouse: 27.5
30. Carson Hocevar: 28.83
There are some pretty interesting statistical numbers above, most notably the dominance by SVG, especially when coming off Pocono, where he was one of the worst drivers on these lists. Also, the drivers that haven’t even led a single lap at a road course over the last year include Hamlin, Elliott, Wallace, Logano, Bowman and Cindric. That is a pretty impressive group that tends to struggle in these types of races.
With all of these stats in mind, my top-rated simulation drivers for road courses, both track and designation are, in order, SVG, Reddick, McDowell, Gibbs, Blaney. For recent ratings, the top 5 are Hamlin, Reddick, Gibbs, Larson, Blaney. A reminder that the most important simulation factor for road courses in general has been qualifying spot, followed by how each driver fares at road courses. All of this goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB on VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday after qualifying, which is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which WILL change a bit on Sunday in the morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:
Top 5: SVG, Reddick, Blaney, Larson, Gibbs
Top underdogs to consider: McDowell, Gibbs, Bell, Buescher, Zilisch
Favorites to fade: Hamlin, Logano, Wallace, Keselowski
The 75-lap event at Naval Base Coronado is set for 4 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
