MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, June 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has been solid since coming off the injured list, posting a 2.57 ERA. While his strikeout numbers are down overall with only 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings, that figure has climbed back to nine strikeouts per nine innings over his last four starts. Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns owns an impressive 2.01 ERA, but that may be due for some regression, as he has a 3.16 fielding independent with one home run and 2.9 walks per nine innings allowed. He is also supported by a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA since May 1 at 5.99.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -118 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -142 and Total 7.4
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto has struggled this season, posting a 7.24 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He has yet to pitch longer than 4 2/3 innings this season. While the Giants rank just 21st in run production this season with fewer than 4.2 runs per game, they have averaged more than 4.9 runs per game in June. Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has a 3.47 ERA overall and has historically shown significant home-and-road splits, posting a lifetime 2.92 ERA at home compared to a 3.89 ERA on the road.
Pick: Giants vs. Marlins Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero has been much improved from a season ago, posting a 3.67 ERA with one home run and 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he is backed by an offense that ranks 25th in scoring with fewer than 4.1 runs per game. The White Sox rank ninth in scoring with 4.7 runs per game and send Davis Martin to the mound. Martin owns a 3.31 ERA and 2.90 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +104
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -133
2:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
The Guardians are currently leaning heavily on their pitching staff, as injuries have led to offensive struggles. Entering Saturday, Cleveland had scored only 38 total runs over its last 13 games. However, they face an Astros team whose bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA at 4.67 and will send Kai-Wei Teng to the mound. Teng owns a 4.31 ERA and 4.88 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 4.3 walks allowed per nine innings.
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi has a 4.60 ERA but a lower 4.34 fielding independent and has improved significantly as the season has progressed, allowing three earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 10th in ERA at 3.41.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +120 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -101 and Total 8.3
2:20 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has seen his ERA rise to 4.26, allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings and surrendering at least five runs in four of his last six starts. He will also be impacted by winds expected to blow out early in the game.
Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease owns a 2.71 ERA with an elite 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings, though he can run into command issues, allowing 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Cubs Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
3:10 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has struggled this season, posting a 7.13 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.2 walks allowed per nine innings. His ERA jumps to 8.44 at home.
Pirates starter Jared Jones owns a 6.23 ERA with 2.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, but his 5.06 fielding independent and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings point toward positive regression. He is supported by a lineup that ranks fifth in scoring with more than five runs per game, while the Rockies bullpen ranks 29th in ERA at 5.11.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -136
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -173
4:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert owns a 3.43 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings this season. However, he has uncharacteristically struggled at home, posting a 5.02 ERA with 2.1 home runs allowed per nine innings.
He faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks 29th overall in scoring with fewer than four runs per game, though Boston has been significantly better on the road, ranking 15th in road scoring with 4.5 runs per game compared to just 3.4 runs per game at home.
Red Sox starter Payton Tolle owns a 2.93 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings, but he has allowed at least three runs in three of his last five starts.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Mariners Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.1
