The 2026 tennis season is fully into the North American hard-court swing, and this weekend wraps up our final 1000-level tune-up event for the US Open with the ATP and WTA Tour stops in Cincinnati.
This tournament carries significant weight on both tours, giving us a strong read on form, fitness, and potential title paths heading into New York. Well, we only have two matches left to dissect. On the men’s side, Frances Tiafoe and Arthur Fils will fight for the Cincinnati crown. On the women’s side, it’ll be an all-American clash between Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula.
With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the Cincinnati Open finals on Sunday, August 23.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Arthur Fils
Fils is a pretty massive favorite at most traditional shops, but you can get him for the equivalent of -163 at one of the major prediction markets — or just about -170 at another. Of course, betting against Tiafoe on American soil is rough, and I have already taken a bit of a beating fading him over the last few matches. However, even with the crowd firmly in Tiafoe’s corner, the actual on-court matchup favors the Frenchman.
In looking at some of my favorite numbers from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovation, there’s just way more that Fils does better than Tiafoe. Since the start of 2026, both players have Serve Quality scores of 7.9. However, Fils has Tiafoe beat when it comes to Return Quality (6.7 vs. 6.6), Forehand Quality (8.3 vs. 7.5), and Backhand Quality (7.9 vs. 7.1). On top of that, Fils is winning 55% of his baseline points, while Tiafoe is down at 53%. So, while it’s fair to give Tiafoe a slight bump with this match taking place in Cincinnati, I don’t know how you can pass on Fils at a reasonable number. The advanced stats suggest he’s better than Tiafoe at pretty much everything.
This also feels like a match in which the oddsmakers will be hoping to catch some casual bettors slipping. Fans that don’t watch as much tennis as some of us sickos will be pouncing on Tiafoe at a plus-money price. I wouldn’t suggest taking the bait. Fils has the game to take Tiafoe down in the United States, much like he did in Miami in 2025.
Bet: Fils -163 / 62 cents (2 unit)
Coco Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula
I won’t be playing anything in the women’s final. If you checked out my pre-tournament futures, you probably know that I gave out Pegula to win her quarter and the tournament. The price for the latter was 14-1, so we have a really strong price with Pegula here. At some point, I would like to hedge that play, but I’ll be looking for extremely favorable opportunities to do so within the match. I won’t try to do it at a mediocre pre-flop price. Gauff is a pretty big favorite. I’m not sure that makes much sense.
Gauff could very well win this one. Her issues on serve appear to have vanished, plus she’s hitting her forehand with more conviction. If she continues to avoid some of the mistakes that have plagued her in recent seasons, her edge in athleticism could help her tough out a win over Pegula. However, Pegula is the steadier of these two players. So, if the sloppier version of Gauff shows up, we could cash a big ticket.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
