WNBA Picks
Another full slate on deck in the WNBA today, headlined by the Minnesota Lynx traveling to Dallas to take on Paige Bueckers and the Wings. Not to mention, the Mystics vs. the Fire, the Sky vs. Aces, and the evening banger featuring the Liberty visiting the Valkyries in Golden State. Let’s look to close out June strong and add to the +16.5 units we’re up this month. Here are the TSI projects for Sunday, June 28th.
Dallas Wings (+3.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 177.5
Dallas has been playing 3.5 points worse than its season average over the last five games, mostly on the defensive end, where they’re giving up five more points per game than what they’ve done for the season. Minnesota looked oddly mortal in its back-to-back games against Washington, and they’re not quite playing as well as they have all season. Dallas has really been a totally different team at home, with an average game grade 9.5 points higher than on the road, while Minnesota has actually been a touch better on the road than they’ve been at home. TSI projects Lynx -1 with a total of 172.5 in this game, and in the two previous matchups, Minnesota has won by an average of 14 points per game with an average total of 176. I don’t feel great taking an Under on this Dallas defense right now, and the Lynx have kind of owned the Wings this season, so I’m going to stay away altogether.
Washington Mystics (-6.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 166.5
Washington has seemingly turned a corner, which isn’t totally out of nowhere, as they have a very talented young roster. They just beat Minnesota and took them to the wire in a loss in back-to-back games, and are playing nine points better than their season average over their last three games. Portland is the opposite; they’re playing 13 points worse than their season average over the last three after two blowouts to Chicago and a close win over Seattle. Portland has struggled on the road as well, playing four points worse on the road; on the other hand, Washington has been 5.5 points better at home than on the road. TSI projects Washington -6 with a total of 169.5, and I like Washington here even though the number is basically spot on. The home/road splits and the recent forms of these teams make me think Washington may blow this one open.
Bet: Mystics -6.5 or better
Chicago Sky (+7.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 178.5
Chicago is playing 5.5 points better over its last five games than its season average, thanks to a couple of beatdowns of Portland and one-point losses to contenders, Dallas and New York. Vegas got a wake-up call by Dallas, losing by 30, but since then, they’re playing five points above their season average from a game grade standpoint. Chicago has been six points better at home and actually has been six points better against playoff teams this season, while the Aces have been seven points better on the road and actually about 3.5 points worse against non-playoff teams. TSI projects Vegas -5 with a total of 177.5, so I’m going to back this Sky team at home against an Aces team that doesn’t seem that interested when they play non-playoff teams.
Bet: Sky +7.5 (Play to +6.5)
Golden State Valkyries (-1.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 163.5
Golden State is a weird team; they just beat Atlanta back-to-back, but prior to that, they were playing about three points below their season average. They’ve been five points better at home and about the same against playoff teams and non-playoff teams. New York is currently on a stretch of playing four points worse than their season average, though they did manage to beat the Aces in that stretch. The Liberty have been 1.5 points better on the road but have been 3.5 points worse against playoff teams. TSI projects Golden State -0.5 with a total of 170. I’d love to take an Over with New York on the road, but Golden State at home is like an Under magnet, so I’m going to pass on this.
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