Netherlands vs. Morocco
Estadio Monterrey, Guadalupe, Mexico
Monday, June 29th, 9 p.m. ET
Morocco takes on the Netherlands in what should be one of the standout ties of the Round of 32. Both sides came through the group stage unbeaten, with Morocco finishing second in their group on seven points from two wins and a draw, while the Netherlands also collected seven points and progressed comfortably.
Of the two teams, Morocco is the side that has impressed me more. Their opening performance against Brazil was one of the best displays of the group stage, and I thought they were unfortunate not to get more from that match. Outside of the chaotic game against Haiti, they have looked extremely organized defensively and have rarely given opponents clear opportunities.
The Netherlands showed signs of vulnerability whenever teams put them under sustained pressure. Japan caused them plenty of problems late in their group-stage meeting by attacking with pace and intensity, and that feels like a blueprint Morocco can follow. This Moroccan side is at its best when they play aggressively, using their athleticism and speed to make sides uncomfortable and keep their heads on a swivel.
Morocco’s consistency over the last few years has been remarkable. They are unbeaten in their last 32 international matches and have conceded just 15 goals during that run. Ever since their run to the World Cup semi-finals in 2022, they have established themselves as one of the toughest teams in international football to break down.
What’s interesting is that despite scoring four fewer goals than the Netherlands during the group stage, Morocco actually generated more expected goals, creating 6.12 xG compared to the Dutch total of 5.23. When you combine that with their defensive record, it is difficult to understand why they are considered such outsiders in this matchup.
With hot conditions expected in Monterrey, fitness and energy could become a major factor as the match progresses. If this game is still level late on, I trust Morocco’s intensity and defensive structure more, and they are the side I am happy to back in this spot.
Morocco +0.25 on the Asian Handicap presents the best value of the day for me.
World Cup Best Bet: Morocco +0.25 Asian Handicap +105
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