WNBA Picks
It was kind of a wild night in the W last night, as the abominable LA Sparks managed to take down the Fever in Caitlin Clark’s return, Connecticut took Minnesota to the wire again, and Golden State pulled away from Toronto late to secure a win. We lost both bets we made by a total of 1.5 points, which is a gut punch, but that’s life when you’re sports betting sometimes. On to Thursday, where we’ve got another trifecta of games, featuring the Dream vs Storm, Mercury vs Fever, and Fire vs Aces. Here are the TSI projections for Thursday’s games.
Atlanta Dream (-10.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 168.5
Atlanta has now lost five straight games and is playing 10.5 points worse than their season average over that span. But nothing is a better opportunity to get right than a home game vs Seattle, as the Storm have been 10 points worse on the road this season. TSI projects Atlanta -13 with a total of 166, so I really like buying low on the Dream here. They’ve won their home games against teams outside the top seven by an average of 14 points this season, and exceeded their season average game grade by five points in those games.
Bet: Dream -10.5 (Play to -11.5)
Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 174.5
Caitlin Clark has been announced out for this game, likely as a precaution considering the last time these teams met was the Alyssa Thomas throat push of Clark. Aliyah Boston will return for the Fever after missing last night’s game. The Fever are on a back-to-back, but since they rested Boston last night, I’m not sure it’ll be as much of a factor here. Both teams have been seven points worse in their respective home/road roles, so that’s a push in this game. TSI projects Indiana -0.5 with a total of 171.5. I’d like to play the Under, but in two games this season, the score has averaged 190 total points, so I’m going to pass here.
Portland Fire (+8.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 175.5
I’m not sure what to make of Vegas at this point. A’ja Wilson is questionable again but has been in a walking boot for a week; they just cut Chennedy Carter, who was a lock for 6POY a month ago; they went to OT with Chicago and lost to Indiana by almost 20 at home last weekend. They’re kind of a mess. Portland is not very good, but plays hard and is much better at home than on the road. TSI projects Vegas -8.5 with a total of 174, so not much value here. I’d lean Portland, merely as a fade of Vegas’s current state. At home against top seven teams, Portland’s rating has been five points above its season average, so they’ve generally gotten up for these big home guys.
Lean: Fire +8.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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