Spain vs Belgium | 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals | Friday, July 10 | 3 p.m. ET | SoFi Stadium | Inglewood
Spain (-155) | Draw (+290) | Belgium (+425)
Over 2.5 Goals (-125) | Under 2.5 Goals (+100)
Spain -0.5 (-160) | Belgium +0.5 (+130)
SPAIN VS. BELGIUM KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Spain have kept five straight clean sheets and Unai Simón is the least busy goalkeeper at the tournament
- Belgium’s 4-1 win over USA was their best performance of the tournament, but it came against a team who never showed up
- Lamine Yamal completed 90 minutes against Portugal and is nearing full fitness at the perfect time
- Lukaku has scored in three straight World Cup games off the bench and is one goal from Roger Milla’s substitute scoring record
Friday’s quarterfinal is an all-European affair with Spain (+370 to lift the trophy)—one of the pre-tournament favorites—and a Belgium (+3000) side who have finally discovered their best form.
Spain scraped past Portugal 1-0 in Dallas, with substitute Mikel Merino netting a stoppage-time winner off a Ferran Torres assist to send Cristiano Ronaldo out of his final World Cup. It wasn’t Spain’s best display—chances went begging for Mikel Oyarzabal and Álex Baena, and they sat deep for long spells—but a fifth straight clean sheet and another impact sub sealed it.
Belgium thumped co-hosts USA 4-1 in Seattle to set up a quarterfinal with Spain. Charles De Ketelaere’s first-half double either side of Malik Tillman’s leveler did the early damage, Hans Vanaken pounced on a Matt Freese error for a third, and Romelu Lukaku added stoppage-time gloss—his third straight World Cup game on the scoresheet.
The question in Los Angeles is simple—has the off-field interference surrounding the decision to rescind Folarin Balogun’s red-card suspension sparked enough life into this Belgium side to challenge Spain’s control and possession-based approach?
SPAIN TEAM NEWS
Despite Spain’s injury issues, Luis de la Fuente has managed to keep a settled side throughout the tournament, and I expect to see the same lineup that started against Portugal. That means goalscoring hero Merino will have to settle for a place on the bench.
Nico Williams and Yéremy Pino were both named on the bench against Portugal after overcoming injuries picked up against Uruguay but didn’t feature. Torres is Spain’s only player on a yellow card and faces a suspension for the semifinal if he’s booked again.
Spain Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Luis de la Fuente
GK: U. Simón
RB: P. Porro | CB: P. Cubarsí | CB: A. Laporte | LB: M. Cucurella
CM: Rodri (C) | CM: Pedri
RM: L. Yamal | AM: D. Olmo | LM: A. Baena
CF: M. Oyarzabal
BELGIUM TEAM NEWS
Rudi Garcia’s bold selection choices have led to him discovering his best lineup at the expense of Kevin De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku, who were dropped for Dodi Lukébakio and Nicolas Raskin against USA. 21 minutes in, Amadou Onana ruptured his ACL, which will see him sidelined for several months sadly. He was replaced by Vanaken, whose goal and assist will be enough to earn him a start.
Zeno Debast has returned from injury but didn’t feature against USA and will be watching from the bench, considering how well Belgium’s back four restricted USA in open play. Center back Brandon Mechele is the only player on a yellow card and at risk of being suspended for the semifinal if they progress.
Belgium Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Rudi Garcia
GK: T. Courtois
RB: T. Castagne | CB: N. Ngoy | CB: B. Mechele | LB: M. De Cuyper
CM: N. Raskin | CM: H. Vanaken
RM: D. Lukébakio | AM: Y. Tielemans (C) | LM: L. Trossard
CF: C. De Ketelaere
SPAIN VS. BELGIUM MATCH ANALYSIS
Spain have been the benchmark for defending at this tournament, recording five straight clean sheets and making Unai Simón the least busy goalkeeper in the competition—six saves from 30 shots totaling 1.40 xG per Sofascore. No team has found a way through, and the center back pairing of Aymeric Laporte and Pau Cubarsí has been the foundation of their success.
The question is whether Belgium can carry their attacking momentum into this game and cause Spain problems. De Ketelaere, Leandro Trossard and Lukébakio were devastating against USA, but that was against a team who never showed up. Spain won’t do that. I think we’ll see Belgium take the approach of keeping themselves in the game until the 60-minute mark, which is why I expect Garcia to stick with Raskin, Vanaken and Tielemans in midfield—all three offer more energy and physicality than 35-year-old De Bruyne, who looks like the injuries and miles on the clock have caught up with him. That keeps Lukaku in reserve to come off the bench around the hour mark and cause problems with his presence and goalscoring form.
Just like De Bruyne, Lukaku is also not in great shape physically, having played just 39 minutes of football for Napoli this season after a serious thigh injury ruled him out for the first half of the campaign. But class is permanent—he’s scored in each of his last three World Cup appearances and added an assist, all from the bench. Only Cameroon legend Roger Milla, with four goals at Italia 1990, has scored more World Cup goals as a substitute. Lukaku is one goal away from matching that record and on current form he might only need a half chance.
Spain’s center back pairing is well-equipped to stop Lukaku getting that chance. Laporte is 6’3″ with an aggressive physical presence and veteran know-how, making him a direct matchup for the physically imposing 6’3″ Lukaku. Cubarsí’s positional sense, speed of thought and elite passing range allow him to sweep up, track late runs and distribute from the back. It’s a pairing tailor-made to handle everything Lukaku has offered at this tournament.
Every day Spain stay in this tournament is a day Lamine Yamal gets closer to full fitness and form. If you’ve watched him at Barcelona over the last two seasons—42 goals and 38 assists in 100 appearances across all competitions—you’ll know he’s absolute box office and destined for Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo status. His serious hamstring injury at the end of April has prevented him from showcasing his best to the world, but he completed 90 minutes against Portugal, which is a great sign that he’s close to being back to his best physically. The further Spain progress, the more dangerous Yamal becomes—and that should terrify a Belgium defense who managed just one clean sheet and conceded five goals against lesser opponents.
Garcia has stumbled on his best lineup almost by accident, and that’s OK—it’s what happens in tournament football sometimes. Dropping De Bruyne and Doku and losing Onana led to him finding answers in Raskin, Vanaken and Lukébakio that nobody expected. Those answers came from decisions made by a man with nothing to lose. Garcia’s contract with Belgium ends after this tournament—this could be his last high-profile job in football.
But the temptation to roll the dice one more time will be there, with the biggest question being whether Doku gets welcomed back into the fold. He’s the one player available to Garcia who’s on the path to world-class status and whose pace and directness could stretch Spain in a way nobody else has been able to.
De la Fuente is the polar opposite. He’s kept the same core throughout, trusting his system over sentiment, managing Yamal’s fitness with patience rather than panic, and using his bench to win games late—exactly how Merino sealed it against Portugal.
Spain know what they are. Belgium think they’ve figured it out against the USA. A World Cup quarterfinal is a dangerous place to put that to the test.
SPAIN VS. BELGIUM BETTING PICK
Spain have kept five clean sheets across 450 minutes of tournament football. The obvious play here is Spain Win to Zero at +185 in the Match Parlay section on DraftKings—and everything in my analysis points toward it.
But my gut is telling me to stay away from it. Garcia is a man with nothing to lose and willing to take bold chances if the game calls for it. You can’t rule out Lukaku’s goalscoring instincts no matter how unfit he is—this is a player who has found the net in three straight World Cup appearances off the bench and will find it again given half a chance. That combination—a manager with no tomorrow and a striker with a record to chase—is what turns me off the clean sheet.
For safety, I’m backing Spain Moneyline (-155) and Under 3.5 Goals (-260), which comes out at +120. Spain are a step too far for this Belgium side. The sportsbooks have the total set at 2.5 goals, but under 3.5 gives us an extra goal of cushion if Belgium do find a way through.
I’m also backing Lamine Yamal Anytime Goalscorer at +145. With 90 minutes under his belt against Portugal, this is the game where Yamal arrives at the World Cup. He’ll be up against Maxim De Cuyper, who is a fine attacking full-back but has defensive limitations—he can struggle in physical one-on-one duels and gets caught high up the pitch, leaving space in behind when Belgium are hit in transition.
If there was ever a game for Yamal to announce himself on the World Cup stage, this is it.
Spain vs. Belgium Betting Pick: Spain Moneyline and Under 3.5 Goals +130
Spain vs. Belgium Betting Pick: Lamine Yamal Anytime Goalscorer +145
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