WNBA Picks
Well, last night we had our first losing day in I know how long, as the Toronto Tempo decided to no-show at home until overtime, failing to cover the -8.5 and the Under was dead at halftime. It happens. Back on the horse today with a four-game slate in the WNBA, featuring the Sky vs Fever, Dream vs Liberty, Wings vs Mercury, and Fire vs Aces. Here are the TSI projections for all four games.
Indiana Fever (-9.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 171
Indiana is just 2-3 in their previous five games, having won four of the previous five prior to that stretch. The Fever’s scoring dropped from 89 points per game over the winning stretch to just 81 in the last five, and the defense went from allowing 80 points per game to 84. Chicago is just 1-7 in their last eight games after starting 3-1 this season. The offense dropped from 84 points per game to 78, uncoincidentally, that’s about the time Rickea Jackson tore her ACL and is out for the season. Although the defense fell off, going from 79 points per game allowed to 88. TSI projects Fever -9.5 with a total of 168.5, and the highest projection formula I have is 169, so I’m going to take the Under here, since Chicago scores and allows fewer points per game on the road, and Indiana allows fewer points per game at home.
Bet: Under 171 (Play to 169.5)
Atlanta Dream (-3.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 164
This is certainly tonight’s marquee game. It has Commissioner’s Cup implications, a potential playoff preview, and a great measuring stick in early mid-June to see where these contenders are at comparatively. Atlanta has won four of their last five, winning by an average of 13 points per game in that stretch. New York has turned it on lately, winning five straight and improving their points allowed from 85 to 76 over that span. TSI projects Atlanta -1 with a total of 169, so I’m definitely playing the Over, as Atlanta home games score three more points per game than their away games, and New York’s road games average 8.5 points more than their home games. I also lean New York, but will pass on an official play due to Atlanta’s home/road performance splits heavily favoring them at home.
Bet: Over 164 (Play to 166)
Dallas Wings (-6.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 169.5
Dallas had won seven straight games before getting absolutely annihilated by Minnesota earlier this week on the second of a two-game road trip. Phoenix has actually won two of its last three, albeit against Seattle and Portland. TSI projects Dallas -6 with a total of 165. Transparently, I bet Dallas -4.5 at opening earlier yesterday, but I’d pass at this number. I do, however, like the Under, as Dallas home games have averaged 11 points per game fewer than their road games, and Phoenix’s road games have averaged 12 points per game fewer than their home games. If the line comes back down, I’d play Dallas -5.5 or better, but currently the spread is a pass.
Bet: Under 169.5 (Play to 167.5)
Portland Fire (+9.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 172
Portland is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, averaging just 74 points per game in that span, while allowing 87. Las Vegas has won four straight games, three of which were against playoff-caliber teams in LA and Golden State (twice). TSI projects Vegas -8 with a total of 171, so the lean would be Portland and Under, but the numbers aren’t strong enough to lead me to a play. The only relevant home/road split number I see is that Vegas has been 8.5 points better on the road (mostly due to a small sample at home and a blowout loss to Phoenix in there), so that formula goes against TSI anyway, which further keeps me off this game.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
