Josh Appelbaum

The public almost never wants to bet on an underdog. Why? Because underdogs are perceived to be the inferior team and casual bettors are psychologically programmed to want to bet on the superior team. However, while it doesn't happen often, every now and again the public will fall in love with an underdog. Maybe the team has a compelling storyline that ropes them into rooting for them. Or maybe the public overvalues the underdog and thinks they're getting too many points to pass up._x000D_

To bet against the public, you have to go where the public is. This might sound obvious, but it's critically important. Every sport is different and bettors need to be mindful of this. Contrarian betting only works by targeting the most heavily bet games with the most lopsided public betting. If the public is hammering one side to the tune of 65% of bets or more, the side receiving 35% or less of bets would be the smart contrarian play.

Some might say being a contrarian is just blindly going against what everyone else is doing. But in betting, there is a method to the madness. By going contrarian, bettors can extract additional value by capitalizing on public bias, taking advantage of shaded and inflated lines and getting better numbers in the form of additional points or sweetened payouts. Best of all, contrarian bettors place themselves on the side of the house.

​The most crucial step to bankroll management is tracking every single bet you make. _x000D_ _x000D_

Over the past few days we've discussed the importance of flat betting, betting to risk instead The dirty little secret with handicappers who sell their picks is that their number one goal isn't to win bets for their members. It's to get people to buy their picks. Once you've purchased their picks, the handicapper has already won. It doesn't matter if the pick wins or loses, the handicapper keeps the payment. _x000D_

Over the past few days we've discussed the importance of flat betting, betting to risk instead of betting to win and limiting our numbers of bets each day. Now it's time to discuss one of the most critical aspects of bankroll management: Avoiding parlays._x000D_ _x000D_