MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, July 12.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:15 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has pitched better than his 3.58 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 2.98 fielding independent with one home run and two walks allowed per nine innings. The Brewers give Robert Gasser the start on the mound, who owns a 4.15 ERA but a higher 4.98 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and faces a Pirates lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with 5.5 runs per game. Both bullpens are quite spent after playing 18 innings on Saturday.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -118 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -145 and Total 7.8
1:35 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has pitched better than his 4.56 ERA would indicate, as he has a 4.34 fielding independent with 2.9 walks per nine innings and is supported by a lineup that is last in road scoring with 3.8 runs per game. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has a 4.21 ERA but a lower 3.78 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Royals vs. Orioles Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
1:40 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers
While Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has a low 2.28 ERA, his 3.11 fielding independent is a concern, and he is supported by an offense that is 27th in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal has a 3.06 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts and 1.3 walks per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA since June 1 at 3.10, while the Phillies rank 26th during that span with a 5.41 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -108 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -143 and Total 7.7
1:45 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd’s 3.26 fielding independent compared to his 4.31 ERA suggests better results could be on the way, but he’s getting only 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings since coming off the injured list after averaging 10 strikeouts per nine innings earlier this season. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has greatly improved as the season has gone along. He owns a 3.92 ERA overall with 7.2 strikeouts and four walks per nine innings, and he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 straight starts.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +114
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -122
2:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has been superb this season, posting a 3.10 ERA while allowing only one home run per nine innings. His ERA drops to 2.49 away from home. White Sox starting pitcher Noah Schultz has a 6.00 ERA, with command being his biggest issue, as he is issuing 5.4 walks per nine innings. The Athletics rank 10th in the league in walk rate.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline +100 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -114 and Total 9.2
4:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has had a tough season, posting a 6.46 ERA while allowing plenty of contact with only seven strikeouts per nine innings. He has also surrendered 1.4 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Trevor McDonald has pitched better than his 5.46 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.98 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and three walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.50, while the Rockies rank 26th at 4.95.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -144
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -168
