The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 14. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Since 2015, when five-win teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 26-49 SU but 43-30-2 ATS (61.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): WISCONSIN (-2 vs. Minnesota), OREGON STATE (+20.5 at Boise State), NC STATE (+3.5 at North Carolina), APPALACHIAN STATE (+2.5 at Georgia Southern), MICHIGAN STATE (-1.5 vs. Rutgers), KANSAS (+1 at Baylor), AUBURN (+11.5 at Alabama), LA MONROE (+9.5 vs. LA-Lafayette)

College football season finale games expected to be defensive slugfests have been just that. As of the last 21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 (80%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NEBRASKA-IOWA (o/u at 39.5) 

When two AP poll-ranked teams meet up and the better-ranked home team has been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-18 SU and 48-22-3 ATS (68.6%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-2.5 vs. S Carolina)

EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 18-5 ATS in last 23
System Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+7 at WMU) 

Trend: Over the total converted in 10 straight Michigan-Ohio State games
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in Michigan-Ohio State (o/u at 43)

Trend: BAYLOR has won the last 11 SU and ATS versus Kansas
Trend Match: PLAY BAYLOR (-1 vs. KU) 

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-19-2 (20.8%) ATS in the last 26 Home games
System Match: FADE NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-12.5 vs. CMU) 

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: PURDUE +29.5 at IU (+9.6 difference) 

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the ’24 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Monday afternoon. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

Here are the systems with updated language and records (from midway through this season) we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. This angle has produced at around a 46% consistently since first discovered, so I would expect an end-of-season slowdown. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, TULANE, OHIO, TEXAS STATE, LIBERTY, SAN JOSE STATE, UCF, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH TEXAS, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, COASTAL CAROLINA, FIU, TROY, OLD DOMINION, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UAB, ARIZONA STATE, FRESNO STATE, SMU, NOTRE DAME, JACKSONVILLE STATE, NEW MEXICO STATE, KENNESAW STATE, APP STATE, FLORIDA, LSU, INDIANA, VA TECH, JAMES MADISON, BYU, AIR FORCE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 231-251 ATS (47.9%). In 2022 it was 46.5%; in 2023 it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. This year, it is actually 67-63 ATS, so I would expect this to cool down over the rest of the season. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO, LIBERTY, ARMY, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH TEXAS, DUKE, ILLINOIS, KANSAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, OLD DOMINION, ARIZONA ST, SMU, NOTRE DAME, NEW MEXICO STATE, TCU, FLORIDA, INDIANA, OREGON, VIRGINIA TECH, BYU, AIR FORCE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 219-241 ATS (47.6%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023 and again in 2024 so far, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TOLEDO, TEXAS STATE, LIBERTY, NORTH TEXAS, TENNESSEE, DUKE, ILLINOIS, OLD DOMINION, ARIZONA STATE, FL ATLANTIC, NOTRE DAME, TCU, FLORIDA, TEXAS, AIR FORCE, NEW MEXICO 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-167 ATS (51.5%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (OH), OREGON STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, GEORGIA TECH, UTSA, SOUTH CAROLINA, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, EASTERN MICHIGAN, COASTAL CAROLINA, PITTSBURGH, NC STATE, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UAB, FRESNO STATE, AUBURN, JACKSONVILLE STATE, KENNESAW STATE, APP STATE, NEVADA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it is off to a strong 20-13 ATS start in 2024.  It suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, GEORGIA TECH, SOUTH CAROLINA, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, COASTAL CAROLINA, NC STATE, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UAB, FRESNO STATE, AUBURN, JACKSONVILLE STATE, APP STATE, WYOMING

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 62.5%! This year, it’s just 18-25 ATS, dropping the overall system mark to 168-115 ATS (59.4%). Still, it goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): Tuesday: BUFFALO, TOLEDO
Thursday: TULANE
Friday: OHIO, BOWLING GREEN, COLORADO, WISCONSIN, OREGON STATE, NAVY, SOUTH ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, LIBERTY, COLORADO STATE, SAN JOSE STATE, IOWA, GEORGIA TECH, UCF

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 405-444 ATS (47.7%), even after a 92-90 ATS start to this season. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEXAS STATE-S ALABAMA, UTAH STATE-COLORADO STATE, N TEXAS-TEMPLE, WVU-TEXAS TECH, E MICHIGAN-W MICHIGAN, OLD DOMINION-ARKANSAS ST, FL ATLANTIC-TULSA, APP STATE-GA SOUTHERN, WYOMING-WASHINGTON STATE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI (OH)-BOWLING GREEN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start. This system also improved its win percentage in 2023, so it’s on an upward climb. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIAMI (OH)-BOWLING GREEN, MINNESOTA-WISCONSIN, NEBRASKA-IOWA, MICHIGAN-OHIO STATE, ILLINOIS-NORTHWESTERN, C MICHIGAN-N ILLINOIS, KENNESAW STATE-LA TECH, HOUSTON-BYU, AIR FORCE-SAN DIEGO STATE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and an ROI of 11.9%. This has happened in only about one of every ten games on average, so it is rare.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): WISCONSIN, SAN JOSE STATE, WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, COASTAL CAROLINA, OLD DOMINION, NORTH CAROLINA, CHARLOTTE, TULSA, TCU, IOWA STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a majority number of money line bets on a road underdog of +3 points or fewer, bettors are 12-8 SU (60%) for +6.04 units of profit and an ROI of 30.2%. This is an angle in which bettors tend to go away from their comfort zone and have been rewarded.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): SOUTH CAROLINA, KANSAS, COASTAL CAROLINA, APP STATE

Systems for College Football Regular Season Finale Games

These are college football betting trend systems involving teams playing in their regular season finale games 

CFB Regular Season Finale System #1
Since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 55-6 SU but just 23-38 ATS (37.7%) in season finale games.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BUFFALO (-21 vs. Kent State), BOISE STATE (-20.5 vs. Oregon State), OLE MISS (-26.5 vs. Mississippi State), OHIO STATE (-20.5 vs. Michigan), INDIANA (-29.5 vs. Purdue), PENN STATE (-24.5 vs. Maryland) 

CFB Regular Season Finale System #2
Since 2015, home underdogs of 7 points or more are just 21-126 SU and 58-87-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): AKRON (+8 vs. Toledo), FLORIDA STATE (+15 vs. Florida), TEMPLE (+11 vs. North Texas), VANDERBILT (+10.5 vs. Tennessee), MASSACHUSETTS (+10 vs. Connecticut), SYRACUSE (+11 vs. Miami FL), NORTHWESTERN (+7.5 vs. Illinois), ARIZONA (+8.5 vs. Arizona State), LA-MONROE (+9 vs. LA-Lafayette), USC (+7.5 vs. Notre Dame) 

CFB Regular Season Finale System #3
In season finale games since 2015, teams scoring more than 43 PPG are 36-8 SU and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) versus teams scoring less.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (FL) (-11 vs. Syracuse) 

CFB Regular Season Finale System #4
In season finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the rad team in the matchup, the record has been 81-11 SU and 55-36-1 ATS (60.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TOLEDO (-8.5 vs. Akron), FLORIDA (-15 vs. Florida State), CONNECTICUT (-10 vs. Massachusetts), DUKE (-4 vs. Wake Forest), ILLINOIS (-7.5 vs. Northwestern), ARIZONA STATE (-8.5 vs. Arizona), LA-LAFAYETTE (-9.5 vs. LA-Monroe), NOTRE DAME (-7.5 vs. USC)

CFB Regular Season Finale System #5
One of the most intriguing regular season finale angles involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 26-49 SU but 43-30-2 ATS (61.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): WISCONSIN (-2 vs. Minnesota), OREGON STATE (+20.5 at Boise State), NC STATE (+3.5 at North Carolina), APPALACHIAN STATE (+2.5 at Georgia Southern), MICHIGAN STATE (-1.5 vs. Rutgers), KANSAS (+1 at Baylor), AUBURN (+11.5 at Alabama), LA-MONROE (+9.5 vs. LA-Lafayette) 

CFB Regular Season Finale System #6
College football season finale underdogs of 4 points or more that have a better record than their opponent have gone just 5-17 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22 tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): PITTSBURGH (+5 at Boston College), ARKANSAS STATE (+4 vs. Old Dominion), FRESNO STATE (+9.5 at UCLA)

CFB Regular Season Finale System #7
Some of the best season-finale types of teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 17-18 SU and 10-26 ATS (27.8%) in their season finale games.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): MIAMI (OH) (+2.5 at Bowling Green), SAM HOUSTON STATE (+3 vs. Liberty), COLORADO STATE (-6 vs. Utah St), MICHIGAN (+21 vs Ohio State), WASHINGTON (+19 at Oregon) 

CFB Regular Season Finale System #8
College football season finale games expected to be defensive slugfests have been just that. As of the last 21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 (80%).
System Matches: NEBRASKA-IOWA UNDER 39.5, several others have totals in the low 40s as of Monday afternoon

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following college football betting trends are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* COASTAL CAROLINA is 11-11 SU and 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): COASTAL CAROLINA (+1 at Georgia State)

* KENT STATE is 9-23 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (+21 at Buffalo)

* TULSA is 10-21 SU and 18-12 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): TULSA (+1.5 vs. FAU)

Worst

* MARSHALL is 12-9 SU and 8-13 ATS (38.1%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (FADE): MARSHALL (+3.5 at JMU)

* MASSACHUSETTS is 3-25 SU and 13-15 ATS (46.4%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (FADE): UMASS ML (+300 vs. UConn) 

College Football Revenge Systems

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 101-19 SU and 77-38-5 ATS (67%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE (-21 vs. Michigan), ILLINOIS (-7.5 at Northwestern), ARIZONA STATE (-8.5 at Arizona), INDIANA (-29.5 vs. Purdue), FLORIDA (-15 at FSU), OREGON (-19 vs. Washington)

Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 680-594 ATS (53.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, BOWLING GREEN, MINNESOTA, SOUTH ALABAMA, SAM HOUSTON STATE, NEBRASKA, GEORGIA TECH, COLORADO STATE, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, VANDERBILT, MARSHALL, OHIO ST, ILLINOIS, ARIZONA STATE, WESTERN KENTUCKY, AUBURN, KANSAS STATE, OREGON, INDIANA, USC 

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 216-175 ATS (55.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO STATE (-6 vs. Utah State), TEMPLE (+11 vs. North Texas), INDIANA (-29.5 vs. Purdue), UTEP (+2.5 at NMSU), HAWAII (+2 vs. New Mexico)

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting trend systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 191-92 SU and 164-111-8 ATS (59.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEMSON (-2.5 vs. S Carolina), TEXAS A&M (+6 vs. Texas)

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 110-21 SU and 80-47-4 ATS (63%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-2.5 vs S Carolina)

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-18 SU and 48-22-3 ATS (68.6%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-2.5 vs. S Carolina)

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #2 – Road-ranked teams vs. non-ranked hosts
In games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 127-34 SU and 87-71-3 ATS (55.1%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, ILLINOIS, MIAMI FL, ARIZONA ST, NOTRE DAME

Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 109-15 SU and 69-52-3 ATS (57%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, ILLINOIS, MIAMI (FL), ARIZONA STATE, NOTRE DAME

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #3 – Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors
In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 105-12 SU but just 47-64-2 ATS (42.3%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 35-8 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) since 2017.
System Matches: FADE BIG FAVORITES – TULANE, COLORADO, BOISE ST, OLE MISS, GEORGIA, OHIO STATE, SMU, PENN STATE, INDIANA, OREGON, UNLV, BYU
PLAY SMALLER FAVORITES/UNDERDOGS – ARMY, MISSOURI, ALABAMA, IOWA STATE 

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top college football betting trends and systems for conference play.

Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 77-109 ATS (41.4%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+2 at Wisconsin), NC STATE (+3.5 at UNC) 

Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 141-107 ATS (56.9%) surge since 2010.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+19 at Oregon) 

Top Team Trends in Conference Games

Negative FADE trends:

• UCF has lost 11 of its last 12 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
System Match (FADE): UCF (-9 vs. Utah)

• TEMPLE is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 conference games when coming off a road loss
System Match (FADE): TEMPLE (+11 vs. N Texas)

• MEMPHIS is on a 5-19 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+14 at Tulane) 

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• PURDUE has a respectable 12-4 ATS record in its last 16 games as Big Ten dog of 20+ points
System Match (PLAY): PURDUE (+29.5 at Indiana)

• PENN ST has become a reliable Big Ten favorite, 20-8 ATS in its last 28
System Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-24 vs. Maryland)

• MICHIGAN is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win
System Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (+21 at Ohio State)

• EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 18-5 ATS in the last 23
System Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+7 at WMU)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems 

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 95-65 ATS (59.4%).
System Match (PLAY): FLORIDA STATE (+15 vs. Florida)

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 40-67 SU and 36-67-4 ATS (35%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS STATE (-1 at S Alabama)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 138-185-1 ATS (42.7%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): HAWAII (+2 vs. New Mexico) 

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following college football betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE STATE +1.5 (+3.1)
2. HAWAII +2 (+2.8)
3. WEST VIRGINIA +3.5 (+2.5)
4. MINNESOTA +2 (+2.4)
5. RUTGERS +1.5 (+2.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARMY -7 (+5.1)
2. NOTRE DAME -7.5 (+4.4)
3. OHIO -15.5 (+4.0)
4. VIRGINIA TECH -7 (+3.5)
5. TULANE -14 (+3.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PURDUE +29.5 (+9.6)
2. HOUSTON +13 (+5.4)
3. SAM HOUSTON STATE +3 (+5.2)
4. KENT STATE +22 (+5.0)
5. MEMPHIS +14 (+4.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE -20.5 (+5.1)
2. OLE MISS -26 (+4.9)
3. OHIO -15.5 (+4.4)
4. MIAMI (FL) -11 (+4.0)
5. ALABAMA -11.5 (+3.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOLEDO-AKRON OVER 48 (+5.3)
2. KENT STATE-BUFFALO OVER 49 (+5.1)
3. UCONN-UMASS OVER 49.5 (+3.3)
4. UTAH STATE-COLORADO ST OVER 52 (+3.1)
5. ILLINOIS-NORTHWESTERN OVER 44 (+3.0) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI (FL)-SYRACUSE UNDER 67.5 (-4.9)
2. OKLAHOMA STATE-COLORADO UNDER 65 (-2.9)
3. OLD DOMINION-ARKANSAS ST UNDER 58.5 (-2.6)
4(tie). TEXAS STATE-S ALABAMA UNDER 61.5 (-2.2)
APP STATE-GA SOUTHERN UNDER 62.5 (-2.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PITTSBURGH +5 (+9.2)
2. SAN DIEGO STATE +3.5 (+8.5)
3. HAWAII +2 (+7.9)
4. MEMPHIS +14 (+7.2)
5. KENT STATE +22 (+6.8) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARMY -7 (+12.9)
2. NAVY -1 (+10.9)
3. JAMES MADISON -3.5 (+7.7)
4. CHARLOTTE -3 (+6.5)
5. MIAMI (FL) -11 (+6.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KENT STATE-BUFFALO OVER 49 (+5.6)
2. TEXAS-TEXAS A&M OVER 48.5 (+5.5)
3. SOUTH CAROLINA-CLEMSON OVER 49 (+5.4)
4. JACKSONVILLE STATE-W KENTUCKY OVER 60.5 (+5.1)
5. OKLAHOMA-LSU OVER 47 (+4.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. AUBURN-ALABAMA UNDER 52 (-4.4)
2. ARKANSAS-MIZZOU UNDER 54.5 (-4.3)
3. WYOMING-WASHINGTON STATE UNDER 58.5 (-4.0)
4. MIDDLE TENN STATE-FIU UNDER 52 (-2.9)
5. OKLAHOMA STATE-COLORADO UNDER 65 (-2.6) 

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* AKRON is 14-30-1 (31.8%) ATS at Home since 2016
System Match: FADE AKRON (+8.5 vs Toledo) 

* ALABAMA is on a 24-9 ATS (72.7%) surge at home
System Match: PLAY ALABAMA (-11.5 vs Auburn) 

* ARKANSAS is 3-14 (17.6%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2020
System Match: FADE ARKANSAS (+3.5 at Mizzou) 

* BALL STATE is 34-21-1 (61.8%) Under the total over the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Ball St-Ohio (o/u at 52.5) 

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 25-13 (65.8%) ATS in Conference games since 2020
System Match: PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE (-5 vs Pitt) 

* BUFFALO is 21-11 (65.6%) ATS at home since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-22 vs Kent St)

* CALIFORNIA is 27-14 (65.9%) ATS as underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+13.5 at SMU) 

* CHARLOTTE is 3-14 (17.6%) ATS at Home since 2022
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (-3 vs UAB) 

* E MICHIGAN is 39-17 (69.6%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2016
System Match: PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN (+7 at WMU) 

* FLA INTERNATIONAL is 14-28 (33.3%) in Conference games over the last six seasons
System Match: FADE FIU (-8.5 vs MTSU) 

* FLORIDA is 6-16-1 (27.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE FLORIDA (-15 at Florida State) 

* FRESNO STATE is 31-18-1 (63.3%) Under the total since 2021
* FRESNO STATE is 20-11 (64.5%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (+9.5 at UCLA), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

* JAMES MADISON is 23-12 (65.7%) ATS as favorite since 2020
System Match: PLAY JAMES MADISON (-3.5 vs Marshall) 

* KANSAS is 37-21 (63.8%) Over the total since 2019
* KANSAS is 4-15 (21.1%) ATS as favorite since 2018
System Match: FADE KANSAS (*if they become favored at Baylor, +1 currently), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 61.5) 

* KANSAS STATE is 44-28-2 (61.1%) ATS since 2019
System Match: PLAY KANSAS ST (+3 at Iowa St)

* KENT STATE is 9-23 (28.1%) ATS in the last 32 games as an underdog
System Match: FADE KENT STate (+22 at Buffalo)
* LOUISIANA TECH is 36-21-1 (63.2%) Over the total since 2019

* LOUISIANA TECH is 10-20 (33.3%) ATS in Conference games over the last four seasons
Systems Match: FADE LOUISIANA TECH (-12 vs Kennesaw St), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43) 

* LOUISVILLE is 5-11 (31.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
System Match: FADE LOUISVILLE (-3.5 at Kentucky) 

* LSU is 23-15 (60.5%) Over the total since 2022
System Match: PLAY OVER in OU-LSU (o/u at 47) 

* MIAMI (OH) is on a 34-19-1 (64.2%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Miami (OH)-BGSU (o/u at 42) 

* MICHIGAN is 33-20-1 (62.3%) ATS in the last four seasons (including 17-7 ATS in Road/Neutral games)
System Match: PLAY MICHIGAN (+21 at Ohio State) 

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 27-21 (56.3%) Under the total since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Miss State-Ole Miss (o/u at 61.5) 

* NEW MEXICO is 20-40 (33.3%) ATS in Conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 6-17 (26.1%) ATS as Favorite since ’18
Systems Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-2 at Hawaii) 

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 31-20 (60.8%) ATS in L4 seasons (including 11-4 ATS as a favorite)
System Match: PLAY NEW MEXICO ST (-2.5 vs UTEP) 

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-19-2 (20.8%) ATS in L26 Home games
System Match: FADE NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-12.5 vs CMU) 

* OLE MISS is 9-19-2 (32.1%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
System Match: FADE OLE MISS (-26 vs Mississippi St) 

* OREGON STATE is 25-14 (65.8%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2016
System Match: PLAY OREGON STATE (+20.5 at Boise State) 

* PENN STATE is 33-17 (66%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’19
System Match: PLAY PENN STATE (-24.5 vs. Maryland)

* PITTSBURGH is 37-23 (61.7%) Over the total since 2020
* PITTSBURGH is 1-8 ATS (11.1%) in the last nine games as a road underdog
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+5 at BC), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* S ALABAMA is 17-37 (31.5%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’14
System Match: FADE SOUTH ALABAMA (+1 vs Texas St) 

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 16-5 (76.2%) ATS as underdog since 2017
System Match: PLAY SAM HOUSTON STATE (+3 vs. Liberty) 

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 44-25 (63.8%) Under the total since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER in AF-SDSU (o/u at 43.5) 

* TEMPLE is 18-11 (62.1%) ATS coming off SU Loss since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEMPLE (+11 vs. N Texas) 

* TULANE is 48-22 (68.6%) ATS as Favorite since 2014
System Match: PLAY TULANE (-14 vs. Memphis) 

* UCLA is 9-18 (33.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE UCLA (-9.5 vs. Fresno State) 

* UNLV is on a 17-7 (70.8%) ATS run following a SU win
System Match: PLAY UNLV (-17.5 vs. Nevada) 

* W KENTUCKY is 12-24 (33.3%) ATS as Favorite since 2019
System Match: FADE WESTERN KENTUCKY (-1.5 vs. Jax St)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(321) MINNESOTA at (322) WISCONSIN
ROAD TEAMS are on a 9-1 ATS surge in the MIN-WIS rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+2 at UW)

(327) MISSISSIPPI ST at (328) OLE MISS
ROAD TEAMS and UNDERDOGS are on a 7-1-1 ATS run, and UNDER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Egg Bowl series
Trend Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI ST (+26 at Ole Miss), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 61.5)

(333) NEBRASKA at (334) IOWA
Trend: UNDERDOGS are on a 6-0 ATS streak in the Nebraska-Iowa series
Trend Match: PLAY NEBRASKA (+5.5 at Iowa) 

(335) GEORGIA TECH at (336) GEORGIA
Trend: ROAD TEAMS are 18-4-1 ATS in GT-Georgia rivalry since 2000
Trend Match: PLAY GEORGIA TECH (+19.5 at UGA) 

(359) NAVY at (360) EAST CAROLINA
Trend: NAVY has won its last eight games ATS versus East Carolina
Trend Match: PLAY NAVY (-1 at ECU) 

(345) COASTAL CAROLINA at (346) GEORGIA ST
Trend: ROAD TEAMS are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in CCU-GSU series since 2017
Trend Match: PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA (+1 at GA State)

(347) SOUTH CAROLINA at (348) CLEMSON
Trend: ROAD TEAMS are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak in the USC-Clemson series
Trend Match: PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA (+2.5 at Clemson) 

(353) FLORIDA at (354) FLORIDA STATE
Trend: ROAD TEAMS are 10-2 ATS in the Florida-FSU series since 2011
Trend Match: PLAY FLORIDA (-15 at FSU)

(355) C MICHIGAN at (356) N ILLINOIS
Trend: UNDERDOGS are on a 9-1 ATS run in the CMU-NIU series
Trend Match: PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+12.5 at NIU) 

(379) MICHIGAN at (380) OHIO ST
Trend: OVER the total converted in 10 straight Michigan-Ohio St games
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43) 

(385) RUTGERS at (386) MICHIGAN ST
Trend: ROAD TEAMS are on a 4-3 SU and 7-0 ATS streak in the Rutgers-MSU h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY RUTGERS (+1.5 at MSU) 

(389) ARIZONA ST at (390) ARIZONA
Trend: OVER the total is 10-2 in the last 12 games of the ASU-Arizona h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 53.5) 

(409) KANSAS at (410) BAYLOR
Trend: BAYLOR has won the last 11 SU and ATS versus Kansas
Trend Match: PLAY BAYLOR (-1 vs KU) 

(417) ARKANSAS at (418) MISSOURI
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 of the ARK-MIS series
Trend Match: PLAY MISSOURI (-3.5 vs Arkansas) 

(419) AUBURN at (420) ALABAMA
Trend: HOME TEAMS are on a 7-0 ATS streak in Iron Bowl rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY ALABAMA (-11.5 vs Auburn) 

(431) UTEP at (432) NEW MEXICO ST
Trend: FAVORITES are on 8-1-1 ATS surge in UTEP-NMSU series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW MEXICO ST (-2.5 vs UTEP) 

(437) NOTRE DAME at (438) USC
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of Notre Dame-USC rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY USC (+7.5 vs ND)

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