Ohio State vs. Notre Dame:

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has been, in my opinion, a major success. Of course the TV ratings have been bonkers, but to see more fan bases have a reason to care about their teams well into December and beyond has been great to see, and we’ve had some excellent games and performances from some of these teams. 

That will culminate on Monday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes, left for dead after an embarrassing home loss to “That Team Up North” on November 30th, have been resuscitated and will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who were left for dead much earlier after an inexplicable home loss to Northern Illinois. Despite the bad loss each team suffered, my T Shoe Index has had these teams #1 and #2 in some order for the majority of the last two months, and I’m not going to lie, it feels pretty sweet to be vindicated like this and have these teams squaring off in the National Championship Game. Narratives aside, how can we make money on this game? Here is my TSI projection and some betting angles I like in this game:

 

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TSI makes Ohio State an 11-point favorite, which is mind-blowing when you consider the table-pounding I (on behalf of TSI) have done the latter part of the season for Notre Dame, despite internet trolls reminding me no less than half a dozen times per week that they lost to NIU. Also interesting here is that TSI has the total set around 49 points, indicating a 30-19 Buckeyes’ win, despite the current market being around OSU -8 with an Over/Under of 45.5. Ohio State’s defensive rating of 5.1 would put them in the elite category with some playoff champions of the past, and Notre Dame’s is also a top-tier defense, fitting between 2014 Ohio State and 2020 Alabama.

So, how will there be 49 points in this game, then? Well, Ohio State’s offense would rate only below Joe Burrow’s LSU, DeVonta Smith & Co’s Alabama, and the Brock Bowers 2022 Georgia offense that hung 40+ on Ohio State and left the carcass of TCU somewhere along the side of the road. Notre Dame’s offense rates ahead of 2015 Alabama, 2016 Clemson and 2017 Alabama, so there’s potential for both offenses to do more than a lot of people might expect.

How to bet the National Championship: Ohio State angles

Ohio State has started fast in every game of the playoff. There’s not really any reason to think that won’t continue, especially if Notre Dame is going to insist on sticking to its mostly man-coverage defense, as has been verbalized by the Notre Dame players in media availability this week.

Bet: Ohio State -2.5 first quarter (-120)

Just copy and paste everything I wrote about Emeka Egbuka going into the Michigan and Oregon games. In big games, they will feed him. He is about to play his last game in scarlet and gray and “Big Game Mek” will be the primary beneficiary of extra attention to Jeremiah Smith.

Bet: Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+145)

TreVeyon Henderson has been an absolute animal in this playoff, averaging over 11 yards per touch, and any time he touches the ball, it’s a threat to become a touchdown. Anything below -140 is value on his anytime touchdown prop, and I see it as low as -105 currently.

Bet: TreVeyon Henderson Anytime Touchdown (-105)

How to bet the National Championship: Notre Dame angles

The Ohio State run defense has been menacing, allowing just 50-something yards total to Texas and Oregon combined. The one aspect they’ve not been as dominant defending is the quarterback run, rather that’s by design of keeping everything in front of them or if it’s a true weakness, but either way, Riley Leonard is going to have to use his legs early and often to keep Notre Dame moving the chains in this game.

Bet: Riley Leonard Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts -115

The one bit of success Texas had against the Buckeyes was with throwing the ball to the running backs out of the backfield. Aneyas Wiliams averaged 13.2 yards per catch against Penn State with a long of 36. I think Notre Dame may target Ohio State LB Sonny Styles in coverage a lot in this game.

Bet: Aneyas Williams Longest Reception Over 10.5 Yards (-114)

I wish I could remember where I heard it to give proper credit, but an Ohio State podcast mentioned this week that OSU’s been most vulnerable outside the numbers in the deep passing game, which coincides with Riley Leonard’s best attribute as a passer. Enter Jaden Greathouse. He had a 54-yard touchdown against Penn State after breaking one tackle down the sideline, and Evan Stewart for Oregon had similar success against Ohio State CB Denzel Burke.

Bet: Jaden Greathouse Longest Reception Over 13.5 Yards (-114)

Other bets I like:

TreVeyon Henderson Longest Reception Over 10.5 yards (-121)

Riley Leonard Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-114)

Will Howard Over 19.5 Completions (-130)

Riley Leonard Under 178.5 Passing Yards (-115)

TreVeyon Henderson Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

Quinshon Judkins Over 0.5 Rushing TDs (-120)

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