Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 451-400 record for +44.62 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-103 at PIT)
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 170-91 SU (+43.22 units, ROI: 16.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-149 vs COL)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 16-2 (+13.06 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-157 vs BOS)
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 43-106 skid (-38.83 units, ROI -26.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-105 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 153-121 for -3.03 units and an ROI of -1.1%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+100 at TEX)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 35-29 for –3.53 units (ROI -5.5%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (-117 vs MIL), MINNESOTA (-175 vs LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-143 at DET)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 51-89 for -42.51 units and an ROI of -30.4%! Fading these teams is producing better than ever before.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+144 at MIN), BOSTON (+134 at NYM)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 105-136 for +0.78 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, however, it has lost over nine units the last four-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+162 vs NYY), ST LOUIS (-112 vs ATL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 48-27 for -11.57 units, ROI -15.4%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-198 at WSH), LA DODGERS (-283 vs AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 186-239 for -32.70 units. This ROI of -7.7% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-103 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+144 at MIN), BOSTON (+134 at NYM), DETROIT (+119 vs PHI), HOUSTON (+100 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at CIN), ATLANTA (-107 at STL)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 158-102 for +36.58 units, an ROI of +14.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-115 vs ATH), MILWAUKEE GAME 2 (-126 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-115 vs SEA), SAN DIEGO (-112 vs TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 122-148 start for -21.30 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 50-69 for -19.54 units and a solid ROI of -16.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CLEVELAND (+128 at MIA), TEXAS (-120 vs HOU), ARIZONA (+226 at LAD)
3-games – TORONTO (-107 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 94-97 for +10.42 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (-105 at CWS), SEATTLE (-105 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 451-400 record for +44.62 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-103 at PIT)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,153-2,032 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.20 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+119 vs PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-115 vs ATH), ARIZONA (+226 at LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2178-2756 (44.1%) for -273.96 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-143 at DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at CIN), SEATTLE (-105 at TB), ATHLETICS (-105 at CWS), ATLANTA (-107 at STL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 392-196 (66.7%) for +57.76 units and an ROI of 9.8%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs SEA)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 65-43-5 (60.2%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 35-16 Over streak in the last 51).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-PIT GAME 1 (o/u at 8.5)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 170-91 SU (+43.22 units, ROI: 16.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-149 vs COL)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 196-235 SU for +37.06 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-105 at CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 43-106 skid (-38.83 units, ROI -26.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-105 at CWS)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 103-185 (-62.67 units, ROI: -21.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-105 at CWS)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 310-320 run (+10.98 units, ROI: 1.7%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE (-105 at TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 83-69 (+17.86 units, ROI: 11.8%) in their last 152 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+134 at NYM), DETROIT (+119 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 195-159 (+13.95 units, ROI: 3.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+134 at NYM), DETROIT (+119 vs PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA +226 (+30 diff), HOUSTON +100 (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE GAME 2 -126 (+30 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -115 (+22), SAN FRANCISCO -149 (+21)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ATL-STL OVER 8 (+1.0)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: AZ-LAD UNDER 9 (-1.3), MIL-PIT GAME 1 UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), MIL-PIT GAME 2 UNDER 9 (-0.5), CLE-MIA UNDER 8 (-0.5), KC-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5), CHC-CIN UNDER 10 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) COLORADO (39-57) at (952) SAN FRANCISCO (39-55)
Trend: COL is 13-37 (-14.90 units) on the road last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+124 at SF)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (52-42) at (956) CINCINNATI (43-50)
Trend: CIN is 22-19 (+4.80 units) vs teams with a winning record with starter Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-114 vs CHC)
(959) ARIZONA (47-47) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-34)
Trend: AZ is 16-28 (-7.74 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+226 at LAD)
(961) ATHLETICS (41-53) at (962) CHICAGO-AL (48-45)
Trend: CWS is 29-17 (+13.81 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-115 vs ATH)
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (38-57) at (964) MINNESOTA (46-49)
Trend: MIN is 23-7 (+11.51 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-175 vs LAA)
(965) SEATTLE (47-48) at (966) TAMPA BAY (55-37)
Trend: SEA is 31-24 (+12.13 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-105 at TB)
Trend: TB is 32-16 (+22.34 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs SEA)
(969) KANSAS CITY (38-57) at (970) BALTIMORE (44-51)
Trend: KC is 18-31 (-9.05 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+129 at BAL)
Trend: BAL is 17-6 (+9.61 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against opponents with a 47% or lower win pct in last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-157 vs KC)
(971) NEW YORK-AL (52-42) at (972) WASHINGTON (48-47)
Trend: Over the total is 31-15-3 (+14.50 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-WSH (o/u at 9)
(973) BOSTON (44-48) at (974) NEW YORK-NL (40-55)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 16-2 (+13.06 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-157 vs BOS)
(975) CLEVELAND (49-46) at (976) MIAMI (52-43)
Trend: MIA is 31-18 (+9.52 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-155 vs CLE)
(977) PHILADELPHIA (52-43) at (978) DETROIT (44-50)
Trend: PHI is 17-28 (-16.63 units) in line range of -145 or lower (including underdog) with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-143 at DET)
(979) TORONTO (45-49) at (980) SAN DIEGO (46-48)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 25-10 (+13.75 units) vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-112 vs TOR)
(981) MILWAUKEE (59-34) at (982) PITTSBURGH (47-47) (DH Game #1)
Trend: MIL is 11-3 (+6.96 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (+1.5 at PIT)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #34: Colorado at San Francisco, Thu 7/9-Sun 7/12
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 25-5 (83.3%, +13.54 units) surge hosting Colorado
– The ROI on this trend is 45.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-149 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, MIAMI, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NY YANKEES at WSH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MIAMI, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1, NY METS, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-WSH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, July 20)
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