Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 16 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Athletics at Chicago White Sox (-125, 8.5)
The White Sox (48-45) dominated last night’s series opener 14-1, cruising as -185 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Athletics (41-53) send out lefty Gage Jump (3-3, 3.77 ERA) and the White Sox turn to fellow southpaw Bryan Hudson (3-2, 2.25 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -115 road favorite and the White Sox a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Chicago, flipping the White Sox from a -105 home dog to a -125 home favorite. In other words, we’ve seen sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Southsiders.
At Circa, Chicago is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” one-way split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the White Sox here, are 92-65 (59%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 110-70 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Hudson has posted a 1.16 ERA at home compared to 3.78 on the road.
Meanwhile, Jump has gotten roughed up in his last two starts (both losses), allowing 10 earned runs in 7.2 innings pitched (12.50 ERA).
Chicago also has the better bullpen, posting an ERA of 4.04 (14th in MLB) compared to 5.26 for the Athletics (dead last).
The White Sox are 29-17 (63%) at home this season, the 4th best home record in MLB.
The Athletics are 22-25 (47%) on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-115, 10)
The Reds (43-50) took last night’s series opener 4-0, coming through as +100 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (54-42) tap righty Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA) and the Reds go with lefty Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 road favorite and Cincinnati a -105 home dog.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 69% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to back the Cubs.
However, despite Chicago receiving more than two-thirds of bets, we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of the Reds, pushing Cincinnati from a -105 home dog to a -115 home favorite.
This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Cincinnati, as the line has moved in favor of the Reds despite the public pounding the Cubs.
At DraftKings, the Reds are only receiving 31% of moneyline bets and 44% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.
Buy-low below .500 favorites facing a sell-high above .500 opponent, like the Reds here, are 55-30 (65%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Assad has posted a 5.90 ERA on the road compared to 2.30 at home.
Meanwhile, Lodolo has pitched well as of late, allowing only 1 earned run over 15 innings in his last three starts (0.60 ERA).
7:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-110, 8.5)
The Cardinals (49-44) stole last night’s series opener 2-1, cashing as +135 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Braves (54-39) start righty Reynaldo Lopez (4-1, 3.18 ERA) and the Cardinals trot out lefty Matthew Liberatore (4-6, 5.34 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 road favorite and St. Louis a -105 home dog.
The public is hammering the Braves at a cheap chalk price, with 80% of moneyline bets at DraftKings coming down in favor of Atlanta.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line fall away from the Braves (-115 to -110). This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Cardinals (-105 to -110), as the line has moved in their favor despite the overwhelming public love for Atlanta.
In other words, sharp Cardinals money has pushed this game down to a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving only 20% of moneyline bets but 75% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
When the line moves in their favor, the Cardinals have gone 20-12 (63%) with a 23% ROI this second, the 2nd best “line move” team in MLB.
