Week 3 College Football Power Ratings:

This week and next week are the most important weeks of the season if you set your own college football lines. Now that we have at least two data points from just about every team, opinions are really being formed and extreme biases are setting in.

Look, a team that stinks in the first two weeks of the season may stink for the rest of the season. The inverse is also true with teams that have stood out in the early going. But, we’re at that time of the year when those who create power ratings have to decide how much their priors still matter. Has 120 minutes worth of football wiped away days, weeks, and months of research and analysis to prepare for the season?

 

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Ego also plays a part. You want to believe that you are right. That what you expected to happen – what you bet on happening – is still going to happen. That there are some extenuating circumstances as to why a team’s rating was too high or too low. That variance is just part of the equation and something where you have to weather the storm, not run from it.

It is also a key time of year because you are going to be pushed to back up your opinions with dollars and it could be a costly couple of weeks if what you believe is wrong. It could also be very profitable because the reactionary crowd is going to move lines too far away from where they should be. These are my favorite and least favorite weeks of the season for those reasons.

If I’m not going to dig my heels in and support my opinions, what am I doing creating opinions to begin with? At the same time, if I dig in and I’m wrong, how long will it take me to admit that I’m wrong? Those are primary questions in Weeks 3 and 4. After that, we wind up getting a lot of conference play and some degree of normalcy tends to creep in.

Remember – there is no preseason in college football. These two or three games have been the first real games of the season. Some things take time. Others are lost causes. Coaches are paid to figure out all of those things. Bettors have to figure out all of those things to get paid.

Here are my Week 3 College Football Power Ratings

RankTeamPRHFA
1Georgia973
2Ohio State933.5
3Texas923.5
4Alabama893.5
5Oregon86.53.5
6Mississippi863.5
7LSU853.5
8Penn State843.5
9USC842
10Notre Dame83.53.5
11Tennessee833.5
12Missouri822
13Oklahoma81.53.5
14Texas A&M81.53
15Clemson813
16Miami (Florida)80.52
17Utah79.53.5
18Michigan78.53.5
19Iowa State782
20Kansas State783.5
21Louisville783.5
22Arizona772
23Oklahoma State773.5
24TCU772.5
25Iowa75.52.5
26Washington752
27Auburn74.52
28Nebraska74.52
29Florida742
30Florida State742
31Kentucky742.5
32Boise State73.52.5
33Kansas73.52
34Georgia Tech731
35UCF733
36Virginia Tech732
37West Virginia733
38Wisconsin732
39Memphis72.52
40Arkansas722
41Tulane722
42Indiana701.5
43North Carolina State703.5
44Rutgers702
45South Carolina702.5
46Arizona State69.52
47Pittsburgh69.52
48SMU69.53.5
49Maryland692
50UCLA692
51Baylor68.52
52California68.52
53Minnesota68.52
54Syracuse68.52.5
55North Carolina67.52.5
56BYU672
57Colorado672
58Illinois672
59UNLV672
60Liberty66.53
61Oregon State663.5
62South Florida662
63Texas Tech662.5
64Washington State662.5
65Appalachian State65.52.5
66Michigan State65.52.5
67Virginia65.52
68Boston College651.5
69Cincinnati652
70Mississippi State652
71Purdue652
72Duke643
73Wake Forest642.5
74Houston63.52
75Fresno State632.5
76Texas State632
77Coastal Carolina622.5
78Miami (Ohio)623
79Northwestern621.5
80Bowling Green61.52
81Stanford61.51
82Louisiana-Lafayette613
83Northern Illinois611.5
84UTSA613.5
85Western Kentucky602.5
86East Carolina59.52
87James Madison59.53.5
88Toledo592.5
89Vanderbilt591
90Georgia Southern57.52
91Old Dominion57.52
92San Jose State57.52
93Air Force572.5
94Marshall572
95North Texas572
96South Alabama572.5
97Nevada56.51.5
98Rice56.52
99Arkansas State562
100Army562
101Colorado State561
102San Diego State562
103UAB562.5
104Wyoming55.52.5
105Hawai’i552
106Navy552
107Western Michigan552
108Ohio542
109Utah State542
110Jacksonville State532.5
111Troy532.5
112Tulsa531
113Southern Mississippi52.52
114Georgia State51.52
115Sam Houston State512
116Ball State50.52
117Central Michigan50.52
118Eastern Michigan50.52
119Florida Atlantic502
120Buffalo49.51
121Connecticut492
122Louisiana-Monroe492
123New Mexico491
124New Mexico State482.5
125Charlotte471
126Akron461
127Florida International461
128Louisiana Tech462
129Middle Tennessee462
130Massachusetts45.51
131UTEP43.52
132Kennesaw State432
133Kent State422
134Temple422

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: BYU +2, Duke +2, Indiana +3, Syracuse +2, Tulane +1.5, Bowling Green +2.5, Memphis +1.5, Rutgers +1, Texas +2, Arkansas +1.5, Cal +2.5, Louisville +2, Northern Illinois +3.5, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Michigan State +1.5, FIU +1.5, East Carolina +2.5, Ohio +1, Illinois +1.5, San Jose State +1.5, Nebraska +2, Clemson +1.5, Arizona State +3, USC +4, UNLV +1.5, Boise State +2, Houston +2, Tulane +2.5, Iowa State +1.5, Minnesota +2, Pitt +2, Boston College +2, Nevada +1, 

Down: SMU -4, Northwestern -3, Georgia Tech -1.5, Troy -5, Cincinnati -1, Florida Atlantic -2, Michigan -3, Auburn -1.5, Jacksonville State -3, Temple -2, Kentucky -2, Notre Dame -2.5, Maryland -2, UTSA -3, Middle Tennessee -2, Central Michigan -3, South Alabama -2, Kansas -2.5, Air Force -3, UAB -2, Arkansas State -3, Colorado -3, Oklahoma -1.5, App State -2, Oregon -4, Texas Tech -3, Liberty -2, Kent State -3, Wyoming -3, James Madison -2.5, Colorado State -2, Georgia State -1, UTEP -2.5, Fresno State -2, Alabama -1.5, Penn State -2, NC State -2, Kansas State -1.5, Wisconsin -1, Charlotte -4 (Brown inj.), San Diego State -2

Injury: Utah -5 (Rising)*, 

* – if out

Some notes on the biggest movers:

USC +4: The Trojans are legit, fam. D’Anton Lynn’s defense should only get better and Lincoln Riley has another star QB in Miller Moss. This is a second straight week with a big USC bump for me. Let’s see if I have them priced right now.

Northern Illinois +3.5: Even though I grew up in MAC country and went to a MAC school, I feel like this is the hardest conference in the country to rate. The Huskies deserve a big bump for beating Notre Dame. I don’t know if they’re any good, but they were good this past weekend.

Indiana +3: I know that Indiana has played two overmatched teams to this point, but Curt Cignetti has this team believing and there are a lot of James Madison transfers that he knows inside and out. (Unrelated, JMU looked terrible last week)

Arizona State +3: Another week, another bump for the Fightin’ Kenny Dillinghams. Cam Skattebo ran all over Mississippi State and this looks like a much different team.

Troy -5: Woof. I know Memphis is pretty good, but another adjustment needed to be made to the Trojans.

Oregon -4: This is a team I’ll be watching closely. Right now, they deserved a sizable downgrade. Maybe that’ll change if Dillon Gabriel and the offense can get in sync, but they are not on the same page at all right now.

SMU -4: I wrote last week that “one could be an outlier; two is likely a pattern”. There’s a pattern here with SMU and it is NOT a good one.

Charlotte -4: Biff Poggi said in his postgame that Florida transfer Max Brown suffered a serious injury and he’s definitely out for next week (and probably more). There was a lot of hope that Brown would be a dude. We may never know, but I know Charlotte gets a downgrade.

Wyoming -3: I know Idaho only lost to Oregon by 10 two weeks ago and maybe they’re a decent team, but Wyoming is a dumpster fire right now.

Michigan -3: If Ohio State doesn’t beat this version of Michigan, Ryan Day should be fired on the field postgame. Or shipped to Siberia.

Air Force -3: Um, what the hell happened in Colorado Springs? I’m willing to chalk it up to San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo knowing the option and that opponent very well to some degree, but not the full degree.

Texas Tech -3: A week after barely scraping by against Abilene Christian, Texas Tech got punked by Washington State. The weird part? The Red Raiders had 491 yards of offense and only scored 16 points.

Kent State -3: Saint Francis (PA) is not exactly a FCS powerhouse.

Arkansas State -3: The Red Wolves should have lost to Central Arkansas two weeks ago. They maybe should have lost to Tulsa this past week.

I had more downgrades of -3. I guess I’d rather be low on teams than high on teams at this stage.

Here are my Week 3 College Football Lines

DateAway TeamHome TeamLine
9/12Arizona StateTexas State+4.5
9/13UNLVKansas-8.5
ArizonaKansas State-4.5
9/14Oklahoma StateTulsa+23
North TexasTexas Tech-11.5
AlabamaWisconsin+14
Central MichiganIllinois-18.5
MemphisFlorida State-3.5
CincinnatiMiami (OH)PK
Louisiana TechNC State-27.5
LSUSouth Carolina+12.5
Arkansas StateMichigan-26
Boston CollegeMissouri-19
UMassBuffalo-5
Coastal CarolinaTemple+18
Texas A&MFlorida+5.5
Washington StateWashington (2 pt HFA)-11
OregonOregon State+17
West VirginiaPitt+1.5
Ball StateMiami (FL)-32
TulaneOklahoma-13
NevadaMinnesota-14
Notre DamePurdue+16.5
App StateEast Carolina+4
TroyIowa-25
UABArkansas-18
Utah (w/ Rising (5 pts)Utah State+23.5
Virginia TechOld Dominion+13.5
UTEPLiberty-26
UConnDuke-18
FIUFAU-6
MississippiWake Forest+19.5
Western KentuckyMiddle Tennessee+12
Jacksonville StateEastern Michigan+0.5
VanderbiltGeorgia State+5.5
UTSATexas-34.5
HawaiiSam Houston State+2
South FloridaSouthern Miss+11.5
ToledoMississippi State-8
New MexicoAuburn-27.5
Air ForceBaylor-13.5
UCFTCU-6.5
GeorgiaKentucky+20.5
ColoradoColorado State+10
IndianaUCLA-1
Kent StateTennessee-44.5
RiceHouston-9
MarylandVirginia+1.5
BYUWyoming+9
New Mexico StateFresno State-17.5
San Diego StateCal-14.5
Kennesaw StateSan Jose State-16.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Arizona +7 (+4.5) at Kansas State: Tulane gave Kansas State everything they could handle and very well could have won that game. I know Arizona didn’t look great last week, but they’re intriguing going to The Little Apple on Friday night.

Memphis +6 (+3.5) at Florida State: Mike Norvell’s old team is in Tallahassee this week. The Seminoles are coming off of a much-needed bye. I have some potential line value here, but it is tricky to fade a good coach off a bye. That said, what if FSU is just bad?

NC State -21 (-27.5) vs. Louisiana Tech: Look, I have not been impressed with the Wolfpack at all. That being said, Louisiana Tech has one data point against Nicholls and it wasn’t a good one.

LSU -7 (-12.5) at South Carolina: College Gameday is in Columbia and Williams-Brice Stadium is an awesome place for a game. I know we want to give SC a big boost for the win over Kentucky, but the Gamecocks had five yards per play and a pick six. That was not totally the blowout that the final score suggested it was. And they got VERY lucky to beat Old Dominion two weeks ago.

Washington -4 (-11) vs. Washington State: Even if I didn’t give UDub two points of HFA for playing this one in Seattle at Lumen Field, it’s still one of my biggest overlays of the week. I don’t think Jedd Fisch has really shown anything yet and they’ve won by a combined score of 65-12 over Weber State and Eastern Michigan. Hold last week against EMU against them if you want, but they had 8.8 yards per play and Will Rogers was 21-of-26 for 261 yards and four TD.

Western Kentucky -7 (-12.5) at Middle Tennessee: I think MTSU is one of the worst teams in the nation. WKU is definitely not Ole Miss, but the Blue Raiders were outgained by Tennessee Tech in the opener.

TCU -1.5 (-6.5) vs. UCF: This may be an error on my part, but I haven’t really moved TCU or UCF much, so this one of those games about priors. I feel like I’ve gotta trust them in this spot.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.