Week 6 College Football Power Ratings:
Week 6 of the college football season has the chance to be chaotic. There are not a lot of big, impactful games, but there are a lot of road favorites. By my numbers, I have 26 road favorites out of 49 games. Some of them are only a half-point or a one-point favorite, so those are effectively toss-up games, but there are a lot of big road favorites as well of over a touchdown.
Most of this week’s games are conference contests as well, so it will be interesting to see how those games play out, especially with some of the long road trips for teams in the Big Ten and ACC with teams going to places that they aren’t used to going. Michigan State is trekking all the way to Eugene. Virginia Tech is going to Palo Alto. Miami is going to Berkeley. USC is going to Minneapolis. Michigan is playing the first road game of the season in Seattle in a rematch of the National Championship Game with two very different-looking rosters. UCLA is in Happy Valley.
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It should make for a compelling week of games, even if we’re lacking the signature games that make college football so exciting. Like the instant classic between Georgia and Alabama. We may get another game like that with Ohio State and Oregon in Week 7, but we just don’t have it this week.
What we do have are some Power Ratings updates. Remember that it’s a three-step process for me each week. Compare my line to the closing line. Check the box score. Look for injuries – which is hard to do with the way teams don’t really announce much on Sundays.
But the box score stuff is really important in my mind. I have a few examples to share and then we’ll get into the Power Ratings and this week’s lines.
Indiana won 42-28 over Maryland and was -4 in TO margin. That was a beating that got covered up a bit by the turnover issue.
NC State played to “expectation” against Northern Illinois as a seven-point favorite that won by seven, but they had just 176 yards in that game.
Rice had zero turnovers, 6.6 yards per play, and only scored 20 points in the 21-20 loss to Charlotte
Clemson had two one-play, 34-yard TD drives and a two-play, 43-yard TD drive against Stanford, a Cardinal team that had major travel issues getting to Greenville
By paying attention to some of these, you may get some early-week line value by fading the benefactors of misleading or “hidden” numbers. You’ll also typically see line moves as a result of these types of things.
Here are my Week 6 College Football Power Ratings
Rank | Team | PR | HFA |
1 | Georgia | 93 | 3 |
2 | Ohio State | 93 | 3.5 |
3 | Texas | 92 | 3.5 |
4 | Alabama | 90 | 3.5 |
5 | Tennessee | 89 | 3.5 |
6 | Oregon | 87.5 | 3.5 |
7 | Clemson | 85 | 3 |
8 | Mississippi | 85 | 3.5 |
9 | Miami (Florida) | 84 | 2 |
10 | Penn State | 84 | 3.5 |
11 | Notre Dame | 83.5 | 3.5 |
12 | USC | 82 | 2 |
13 | LSU | 81 | 3.5 |
14 | Iowa State | 80.5 | 2 |
15 | Louisville | 80.5 | 3.5 |
16 | Texas A&M | 79.5 | 3 |
17 | Indiana | 79 | 1.5 |
18 | Utah | 78 | 3.5 |
19 | Kansas State | 77.5 | 3.5 |
20 | Iowa | 77 | 2.5 |
21 | Missouri | 77 | 2 |
22 | Nebraska | 76.5 | 2 |
23 | Michigan | 76 | 3.5 |
24 | Arizona | 75.5 | 2 |
25 | Boise State | 75.5 | 2.5 |
26 | Oklahoma | 75.5 | 3.5 |
27 | Kentucky | 75 | 2.5 |
28 | Arkansas | 74.5 | 2 |
29 | Pittsburgh | 74.5 | 2 |
30 | Virginia Tech | 73.5 | 2 |
31 | Washington | 73.5 | 2 |
32 | Georgia Tech | 73 | 1 |
33 | Oklahoma State | 73 | 3.5 |
34 | South Carolina | 72.5 | 2.5 |
35 | Auburn | 72 | 2 |
36 | UCF | 72 | 3 |
37 | BYU | 71.5 | 2 |
38 | Tulane | 71.5 | 2 |
39 | West Virginia | 71.5 | 3 |
40 | Florida | 71 | 2 |
41 | SMU | 71 | 3.5 |
42 | California | 70.5 | 2 |
43 | Colorado | 70.5 | 2 |
44 | Rutgers | 70.5 | 2 |
45 | TCU | 70.5 | 2.5 |
46 | Kansas | 70 | 2 |
47 | Texas Tech | 70 | 2.5 |
48 | UNLV | 70 | 2 |
49 | Wisconsin | 70 | 2 |
50 | Minnesota | 69.5 | 2 |
51 | Illinois | 69 | 2 |
52 | Maryland | 69 | 2 |
53 | Cincinnati | 68.5 | 2 |
54 | Memphis | 68.5 | 2 |
55 | Boston College | 68 | 1.5 |
56 | Arizona State | 67.5 | 2 |
57 | Michigan State | 67.5 | 2.5 |
58 | Virginia | 67.5 | 2 |
59 | Baylor | 67 | 2 |
60 | Florida State | 67 | 2 |
61 | Washington State | 67 | 2.5 |
62 | Fresno State | 66.5 | 2.5 |
63 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 66.5 | 3 |
64 | Syracuse | 66.5 | 2.5 |
65 | Navy | 66 | 2 |
66 | North Carolina | 66 | 2.5 |
67 | Oregon State | 66 | 3.5 |
68 | Bowling Green | 64.5 | 2 |
69 | Texas State | 64.5 | 2 |
70 | James Madison | 64 | 3.5 |
71 | Liberty | 63.5 | 3 |
72 | South Florida | 63.5 | 2 |
73 | Stanford | 63.5 | 1 |
74 | Duke | 63 | 3 |
75 | Wake Forest | 63 | 2.5 |
76 | Toledo | 62.5 | 2.5 |
77 | UCLA | 62.5 | 2 |
78 | Northwestern | 62 | 1.5 |
79 | South Alabama | 62 | 2.5 |
80 | Army | 61.5 | 2 |
81 | Purdue | 61.5 | 2 |
82 | Appalachian State | 59.5 | 2.5 |
83 | East Carolina | 59.5 | 2 |
84 | Houston | 59.5 | 2 |
85 | North Texas | 59.5 | 2 |
86 | San Jose State | 59.5 | 2 |
87 | Miami (Ohio) | 59 | 3 |
88 | UTSA | 59 | 3.5 |
89 | Vanderbilt | 59 | 1 |
90 | Mississippi State | 58.5 | 2 |
91 | Old Dominion | 58.5 | 2 |
92 | Sam Houston State | 58.5 | 2 |
93 | Western Kentucky | 58.5 | 2.5 |
94 | Coastal Carolina | 58 | 2.5 |
95 | Northern Illinois | 58 | 1.5 |
96 | Georgia Southern | 57.5 | 2 |
97 | Jacksonville State | 57.5 | 2.5 |
98 | Marshall | 57 | 2 |
99 | North Carolina State | 57 | 3.5 |
100 | Connecticut | 56.5 | 2 |
101 | Nevada | 56.5 | 1.5 |
102 | Arkansas State | 56 | 2 |
103 | UAB | 55 | 2.5 |
104 | Western Michigan | 55 | 2 |
105 | Georgia State | 54 | 2 |
106 | Ohio | 53 | 2 |
107 | Colorado State | 52 | 1 |
108 | Eastern Michigan | 52 | 2 |
109 | Hawai’i | 52 | 2 |
110 | Air Force | 51 | 2.5 |
111 | New Mexico | 51 | 1 |
112 | Tulsa | 51 | 1 |
113 | Utah State | 51 | 2 |
114 | Rice | 49.5 | 2 |
115 | Wyoming | 49.5 | 2.5 |
116 | Louisiana-Monroe | 49 | 2 |
117 | San Diego State | 49 | 2 |
118 | Troy | 49 | 2.5 |
119 | Central Michigan | 48.5 | 2 |
120 | Buffalo | 48 | 1 |
121 | Florida Atlantic | 47.5 | 2 |
122 | Southern Mississippi | 47.5 | 2 |
123 | Charlotte | 46.5 | 1 |
124 | Massachusetts | 46.5 | 1 |
125 | Louisiana Tech | 46 | 2 |
126 | Temple | 46 | 2 |
127 | Akron | 44.5 | 1 |
128 | UTEP | 44.5 | 2 |
129 | Ball State | 44 | 2 |
130 | Florida International | 44 | 1 |
131 | Middle Tennessee | 43.5 | 2 |
132 | Kennesaw State | 41 | 2 |
133 | New Mexico State | 40.5 | 2.5 |
134 | Kent State | 35.5 | 2 |
Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:
Up: Army +3, Virginia Tech +2, Washington +2.5, Nebraska +2, Kentucky +3, Navy +6, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Clemson +1.5, Central Michigan +2, James Madison +3, North Carolina +1.5, Indiana +3, UConn +5, UMass +1, Colorado +2.5, Old Dominion +2.5, SMU +1.5, Cincinnati +1.5, Tulane +1.5, Arizona +1.5, Texas State +1.5, Iowa State +2.5, Charlotte +1.5, North Texas +2.5, UNLV +1.5, Alabama +1, New Mexico +2, Boise State +2, Washington State +1, Louisiana +2, Jacksonville State +2.5,
Down: Miami (FL) -2, Rutgers -2.5, Northern Illinois -1, Buffalo -2, Boston College -2, Purdue -1.5, Ole Miss -2.5, Oklahoma State -1.5, UAB -3, Kent State -1.5, San Diego State -4, Ball State -3, Buffalo -1.5, Miami (OH) -3, UCF -4, Florida State -2.5, Texas Tech -1.5, Kansas -1.5, South Florida -2.5, Utah -1.5, Memphis -1.5, BYU -1.5, Baylor -1.5, Houston -1.5, Rice -4, UCLA -3.5, Louisiana Tech -2, Georgia -2.5, New Mexico State -4, Air Force -2, Kennesaw State -2, Oklahoma -2, NC State -2.5, Tulsa -2, Troy -2
Injury: Boston College -4 (Castellanos)*
* – if out
Some notes on the biggest movers:
Navy +6: Another big bump, as promised, for the Middies. Even though my PR didn’t call for it, I took them against UAB and they rolled with ease. I don’t even know if four points is enough. By the way, speaking of box scores, Navy ran for 227 and threw for 225. It is extremely rare to see those two numbers almost identical. This is a completely different team.
UConn +5: The Huskies pummeled Buffalo a week after destroying Florida Atlantic. They’re really playing well on offense right now.
Army +3: Another bump for a service academy. Army hammered Temple on Thursday night and their run game is in tip-top shape.
James Madison +3: The Dukes followed up their 70 burger against UNC with a 60 burger against Ball State. Alonza Barrett is steering that ship in a big way.
Kentucky +3: The ‘Cats went into Oxford and beat Ole Miss. Remember, they nearly beat Georgia earlier this year. I don’t really know how good this team is, mainly because of Brock Vandagriff and the offense, but the defense is once again very legit.
Indiana +3: Another week, another resounding win for Curt Cignetti. They’re probably 10-0 when they go to Columbus on November 23 off of a bye with Ohio State looking ahead to Michigan.
UCF -4: I don’t think the box score made the performance against Colorado look as bad as the final score, but that should have been a good spot for the Knights and they failed. By the way, Colorado, who I bumped 2.5 points, seems to like life in the Big 12. I think we didn’t realize how exceptional the Pac-12 was last season.
San Diego State -4: This is a market correction and also an adjustment to an awful team. The Aztecs stink under Sean Lewis and the farther we get from that random year at Kent State, the more I wonder if the one-time wunderkind was all bark and no bite.
New Mexico State -4: Big market correction here. My line was 2 in the New Mexico vs. New Mexico State game. If we ran it back now, it would be 8, still below where it closed, but a lot closer.
Rice -4: Market correction here as well. I’ve realized that I haven’t had a good Charlotte line at any point this season, but this one was off by a lot, especially with the result.
UCLA -3.5: Holy hell, this team is terrible. And the Big Ten is going to eat them alive.
Ball State -3: Market correction; thanks for the cover against CMU, though, boys! After that JMU showing this week, I can’t see myself betting them again.
UAB -3: Market correction, although I think my Navy power rating was just egregiously wrong. Hell, it still might be, even with a six-point bump.
Here are my Week 6 College Football Lines
Date | Away Team | Home Team | Line |
10/3 | Texas State | Troy | +13 |
Sam Houston State | UTEP | +12 | |
10/4 | Jacksonville State | Kennesaw State | +9.5 |
Houston | TCU | -13.5 | |
Michigan State | Oregon | -23.5 | |
Syracuse | UNLV | -5.5 | |
10/5 | Pitt | North Carolina | +6 |
UCF | Florida | -1 | |
East Carolina | Charlotte | +12 | |
SMU | Louisville | -13 | |
Auburn | Georgia | -24 | |
Tulane | UAB | +14 | |
Clemson | Florida State | +16 | |
Mississippi | South Carolina | +10 | |
Old Dominion | Coastal Carolina | -2 | |
Western Michigan | Ball State | +9 | |
Wake Forest | NC State | +2.5 | |
Miami (OH) | Toledo | -6 | |
App State | Marshall | +0.5 | |
Duke | Georgia Tech | -11 | |
Bowling Green | Akron | +19 | |
Boston College | Virginia | -1.5 | |
UMass | Northern Illinois | -13 | |
Navy | Air Force | +12.5 | |
Alabama | Vanderbilt | +30 | |
Indiana | Northwestern | +15.5 | |
Utah State | Boise State | -27 | |
Kansas | Arizona State | +0.5 | |
Miami (FL) | Cal | +11.5 | |
Nevada | San Jose State | -5 | |
Virginia Tech | Stanford | +9 | |
Texas Tech | Arizona | -7.5 | |
Tennessee | Arkansas | +12.5 | |
Army | Tulsa | +9.5 | |
Baylor | Iowa State | -15.5 | |
West Virginia | Oklahoma State | -5 | |
Temple | UConn | -12.5 | |
Missouri | Texas A&M | -5.5 | |
James Madison | UL Monroe | +13 | |
Louisiana | Southern Miss | +17 | |
Rutgers | Nebraska | -8 | |
South Alabama | Arkansas State | +4 | |
USC | Minnesota | +10.5 | |
Michigan | Washington | +0.5 | |
Iowa | Ohio State | -19.5 | |
Colorado State | Oregon State | -17.5 | |
Hawaii | San Diego State | +1 | |
UCLA | Penn State | -25 | |
Purdue | Wisconsin | -10.5 |
Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines
Pitt -2.5 (-6) at North Carolina: I have loved what I’ve seen from Pitt’s offense this season and I genuinely think they’re undervalued by the market.
East Carolina -8 (-12) at Charlotte: As I mentioned, my Charlotte power rating hasn’t been right all season, but I also think the market has severely overvalued this team.
Louisville -6.5 (-13) vs. SMU: Maybe the Mustangs have indeed figured it out, but I had my Louisville/Notre Dame line dead on last week and I really don’t find SMU to be a very good team.
Wake Forest -2.5 (+5) vs. NC State: I’m sorry, but I think NC State is a really, really bad football team. Not that Wake Forest has many redeeming qualities, but they’ve been way more consistent on offense.
Alabama -24 (-30) at Vanderbilt: Vandy has no home-field advantage and Alabama has extra incentive to blow teams out now with where Jalen Milroe’s Heisman hopes have gone.
I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.