Week 6 College Football Power Ratings:

Week 6 of the college football season has the chance to be chaotic. There are not a lot of big, impactful games, but there are a lot of road favorites. By my numbers, I have 26 road favorites out of 49 games. Some of them are only a half-point or a one-point favorite, so those are effectively toss-up games, but there are a lot of big road favorites as well of over a touchdown.

Most of this week’s games are conference contests as well, so it will be interesting to see how those games play out, especially with some of the long road trips for teams in the Big Ten and ACC with teams going to places that they aren’t used to going. Michigan State is trekking all the way to Eugene. Virginia Tech is going to Palo Alto. Miami is going to Berkeley. USC is going to Minneapolis. Michigan is playing the first road game of the season in Seattle in a rematch of the National Championship Game with two very different-looking rosters. UCLA is in Happy Valley.

 

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It should make for a compelling week of games, even if we’re lacking the signature games that make college football so exciting. Like the instant classic between Georgia and Alabama. We may get another game like that with Ohio State and Oregon in Week 7, but we just don’t have it this week.

What we do have are some Power Ratings updates. Remember that it’s a three-step process for me each week. Compare my line to the closing line. Check the box score. Look for injuries – which is hard to do with the way teams don’t really announce much on Sundays.

But the box score stuff is really important in my mind. I have a few examples to share and then we’ll get into the Power Ratings and this week’s lines.

Indiana won 42-28 over Maryland and was -4 in TO margin. That was a beating that got covered up a bit by the turnover issue.

NC State played to “expectation” against Northern Illinois as a seven-point favorite that won by seven, but they had just 176 yards in that game.

Rice had zero turnovers, 6.6 yards per play, and only scored 20 points in the 21-20 loss to Charlotte

Clemson had two one-play, 34-yard TD drives and a two-play, 43-yard TD drive against Stanford, a Cardinal team that had major travel issues getting to Greenville

By paying attention to some of these, you may get some early-week line value by fading the benefactors of misleading or “hidden” numbers. You’ll also typically see line moves as a result of these types of things.

Here are my Week 6 College Football Power Ratings

RankTeamPRHFA
1Georgia933
2Ohio State933.5
3Texas923.5
4Alabama903.5
5Tennessee893.5
6Oregon87.53.5
7Clemson853
8Mississippi853.5
9Miami (Florida)842
10Penn State843.5
11Notre Dame83.53.5
12USC822
13LSU813.5
14Iowa State80.52
15Louisville80.53.5
16Texas A&M79.53
17Indiana791.5
18Utah783.5
19Kansas State77.53.5
20Iowa772.5
21Missouri772
22Nebraska76.52
23Michigan763.5
24Arizona75.52
25Boise State75.52.5
26Oklahoma75.53.5
27Kentucky752.5
28Arkansas74.52
29Pittsburgh74.52
30Virginia Tech73.52
31Washington73.52
32Georgia Tech731
33Oklahoma State733.5
34South Carolina72.52.5
35Auburn722
36UCF723
37BYU71.52
38Tulane71.52
39West Virginia71.53
40Florida712
41SMU713.5
42California70.52
43Colorado70.52
44Rutgers70.52
45TCU70.52.5
46Kansas702
47Texas Tech702.5
48UNLV702
49Wisconsin702
50Minnesota69.52
51Illinois692
52Maryland692
53Cincinnati68.52
54Memphis68.52
55Boston College681.5
56Arizona State67.52
57Michigan State67.52.5
58Virginia67.52
59Baylor672
60Florida State672
61Washington State672.5
62Fresno State66.52.5
63Louisiana-Lafayette66.53
64Syracuse66.52.5
65Navy662
66North Carolina662.5
67Oregon State663.5
68Bowling Green64.52
69Texas State64.52
70James Madison643.5
71Liberty63.53
72South Florida63.52
73Stanford63.51
74Duke633
75Wake Forest632.5
76Toledo62.52.5
77UCLA62.52
78Northwestern621.5
79South Alabama622.5
80Army61.52
81Purdue61.52
82Appalachian State59.52.5
83East Carolina59.52
84Houston59.52
85North Texas59.52
86San Jose State59.52
87Miami (Ohio)593
88UTSA593.5
89Vanderbilt591
90Mississippi State58.52
91Old Dominion58.52
92Sam Houston State58.52
93Western Kentucky58.52.5
94Coastal Carolina582.5
95Northern Illinois581.5
96Georgia Southern57.52
97Jacksonville State57.52.5
98Marshall572
99North Carolina State573.5
100Connecticut56.52
101Nevada56.51.5
102Arkansas State562
103UAB552.5
104Western Michigan552
105Georgia State542
106Ohio532
107Colorado State521
108Eastern Michigan522
109Hawai’i522
110Air Force512.5
111New Mexico511
112Tulsa511
113Utah State512
114Rice49.52
115Wyoming49.52.5
116Louisiana-Monroe492
117San Diego State492
118Troy492.5
119Central Michigan48.52
120Buffalo481
121Florida Atlantic47.52
122Southern Mississippi47.52
123Charlotte46.51
124Massachusetts46.51
125Louisiana Tech462
126Temple462
127Akron44.51
128UTEP44.52
129Ball State442
130Florida International441
131Middle Tennessee43.52
132Kennesaw State412
133New Mexico State40.52.5
134Kent State35.52

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Army +3, Virginia Tech +2, Washington +2.5, Nebraska +2, Kentucky +3, Navy +6, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Clemson +1.5, Central Michigan +2, James Madison +3, North Carolina +1.5, Indiana +3, UConn +5, UMass +1, Colorado +2.5, Old Dominion +2.5, SMU +1.5, Cincinnati +1.5, Tulane +1.5, Arizona +1.5, Texas State +1.5, Iowa State +2.5, Charlotte +1.5, North Texas +2.5, UNLV +1.5, Alabama +1, New Mexico +2, Boise State +2, Washington State +1, Louisiana +2, Jacksonville State +2.5, 

Down: Miami (FL) -2, Rutgers -2.5, Northern Illinois -1, Buffalo -2, Boston College -2, Purdue -1.5, Ole Miss -2.5, Oklahoma State -1.5, UAB -3, Kent State -1.5, San Diego State -4, Ball State -3, Buffalo -1.5, Miami (OH) -3, UCF -4, Florida State -2.5, Texas Tech -1.5, Kansas -1.5, South Florida -2.5, Utah -1.5, Memphis -1.5, BYU -1.5, Baylor -1.5, Houston -1.5, Rice -4, UCLA -3.5, Louisiana Tech -2, Georgia -2.5, New Mexico State -4, Air Force -2, Kennesaw State -2, Oklahoma -2, NC State -2.5, Tulsa -2, Troy -2

Injury: Boston College -4 (Castellanos)*

* – if out

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Navy +6: Another big bump, as promised, for the Middies. Even though my PR didn’t call for it, I took them against UAB and they rolled with ease. I don’t even know if four points is enough. By the way, speaking of box scores, Navy ran for 227 and threw for 225. It is extremely rare to see those two numbers almost identical. This is a completely different team.

UConn +5: The Huskies pummeled Buffalo a week after destroying Florida Atlantic. They’re really playing well on offense right now.

Army +3: Another bump for a service academy. Army hammered Temple on Thursday night and their run game is in tip-top shape.

James Madison +3: The Dukes followed up their 70 burger against UNC with a 60 burger against Ball State. Alonza Barrett is steering that ship in a big way.

Kentucky +3: The ‘Cats went into Oxford and beat Ole Miss. Remember, they nearly beat Georgia earlier this year. I don’t really know how good this team is, mainly because of Brock Vandagriff and the offense, but the defense is once again very legit.

Indiana +3: Another week, another resounding win for Curt Cignetti. They’re probably 10-0 when they go to Columbus on November 23 off of a bye with Ohio State looking ahead to Michigan.

UCF -4: I don’t think the box score made the performance against Colorado look as bad as the final score, but that should have been a good spot for the Knights and they failed. By the way, Colorado, who I bumped 2.5 points, seems to like life in the Big 12. I think we didn’t realize how exceptional the Pac-12 was last season.

San Diego State -4: This is a market correction and also an adjustment to an awful team. The Aztecs stink under Sean Lewis and the farther we get from that random year at Kent State, the more I wonder if the one-time wunderkind was all bark and no bite.

New Mexico State -4: Big market correction here. My line was 2 in the New Mexico vs. New Mexico State game. If we ran it back now, it would be 8, still below where it closed, but a lot closer.

Rice -4: Market correction here as well. I’ve realized that I haven’t had a good Charlotte line at any point this season, but this one was off by a lot, especially with the result.

UCLA -3.5: Holy hell, this team is terrible. And the Big Ten is going to eat them alive.

Ball State -3: Market correction; thanks for the cover against CMU, though, boys! After that JMU showing this week, I can’t see myself betting them again.
UAB -3: Market correction, although I think my Navy power rating was just egregiously wrong. Hell, it still might be, even with a six-point bump.

Here are my Week 6 College Football Lines

DateAway TeamHome TeamLine
10/3Texas StateTroy+13
Sam Houston StateUTEP+12
10/4Jacksonville StateKennesaw State+9.5
HoustonTCU-13.5
Michigan StateOregon-23.5
SyracuseUNLV-5.5
10/5PittNorth Carolina+6
UCFFlorida-1
East CarolinaCharlotte+12
SMULouisville-13
AuburnGeorgia-24
TulaneUAB+14
ClemsonFlorida State+16
MississippiSouth Carolina+10
Old DominionCoastal Carolina-2
Western MichiganBall State+9
Wake ForestNC State+2.5
Miami (OH)Toledo-6
App StateMarshall+0.5
DukeGeorgia Tech-11
Bowling GreenAkron+19
Boston CollegeVirginia-1.5
UMassNorthern Illinois-13
NavyAir Force+12.5
AlabamaVanderbilt+30
IndianaNorthwestern+15.5
Utah StateBoise State-27
KansasArizona State+0.5
Miami (FL)Cal+11.5
NevadaSan Jose State-5
Virginia TechStanford+9
Texas TechArizona-7.5
TennesseeArkansas+12.5
ArmyTulsa+9.5
BaylorIowa State-15.5
West VirginiaOklahoma State-5
TempleUConn-12.5
MissouriTexas A&M-5.5
James MadisonUL Monroe+13
LouisianaSouthern Miss+17
RutgersNebraska-8
South AlabamaArkansas State+4
USCMinnesota+10.5
MichiganWashington+0.5
IowaOhio State-19.5
Colorado StateOregon State-17.5
HawaiiSan Diego State+1
UCLAPenn State-25
PurdueWisconsin-10.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Pitt -2.5 (-6) at North Carolina: I have loved what I’ve seen from Pitt’s offense this season and I genuinely think they’re undervalued by the market.

East Carolina -8 (-12) at Charlotte: As I mentioned, my Charlotte power rating hasn’t been right all season, but I also think the market has severely overvalued this team.

Louisville -6.5 (-13) vs. SMU: Maybe the Mustangs have indeed figured it out, but I had my Louisville/Notre Dame line dead on last week and I really don’t find SMU to be a very good team.

Wake Forest -2.5 (+5) vs. NC State: I’m sorry, but I think NC State is a really, really bad football team. Not that Wake Forest has many redeeming qualities, but they’ve been way more consistent on offense.
Alabama -24 (-30) at Vanderbilt: Vandy has no home-field advantage and Alabama has extra incentive to blow teams out now with where Jalen Milroe’s Heisman hopes have gone.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.