BMW Championship:
Hideki Matsuyama had a tumultuous week before last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. During a stopover in London while en route to Memphis, his wallet was stolen, as were the passports of his caddie and coach, who were forced to return to Japan. They couldn’t accompany Matsuyama to Memphis and likely will not be stateside until next week’s Tour Championship.
Nevertheless, Matsuyama, a pre-tournament 25-1 price, won the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs by two strokes (-17/263) over Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland. He led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting, Proximity, Total Birdies, Birdie Or Better Percentage and Par-3 Scoring.
He led by five strokes after Round 3 and made the turn on Sunday leading by the same margin and was at one point -3000 to win, but that is when it got a little interesting as Matsuyama started missing fairways and went 4 over in a five-hole stretch on Nos. 12-16. Schauffele had posted 15 under in the clubhouse and there was a three-way tie for the lead with him, Hovland and Matsuyama.
Matsuyama made a 26-foot birdie on 17 and then closed with another from six feet on 18 to win his second event of 2024 (Genesis Invitational).
This week, Matsuyama (18-1), who jumped from eighth to third in the FedEx Cup Points, will be one of the 50 players teeing it up at the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club in Denver.
Scottie Scheffler (+350) maintains around a 1,500-point lead in the FEC Points after a fourth last week, while Schauffele (+550) cut slightly into the points deficit with his runner-up finish but is still No. 2 in the point standings.
It was a miserable week for Rory McIlroy (12-1) as he ranked 65th out of 70 players for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, a category he typically leads, 63rd for Strokes Gained: Approach and 69th for Strokes Gained: Putting, to shoot 9 over for the tournament and finish T-68.
Collin Morikawa (14-1) finished T-22 last week but was terrible with his irons, ranking 64th out of 70 for Greens In Regulation and 68th for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Despite hitting just 29 of 56 fairways, Hovland (18-1), who won this event last year at Olympia Fields, finished runner-up and had his best chance for his first 2024 victory since the PGA Championship in May.
Ludvig Åberg (22-1) finished T-40 last week and was near the bottom for Driving Accuracy and Greens In Regulation.
Patrick Cantlay (22-1), a winner in three of the last 10 FEC events, got off to a slow start in Memphis but played well on the weekend to finish T-12.
Other players in the top 10 of the FEC Points include Wyndham Clark (35-1), Sungjae Im (50-1) and Sahith Theegala (55-1).
The Field
The Top 50 in the FedEx Cup Points are in this week’s BMW Championship. These same Top 50 have also qualified for all eight “Signature events” in the 2025 season.
After this week’s no-cut event, the top 30 in the FEC Points will advance to next week’s Tour Championship.
Last week, three players moved into the Top 50:
| Player | Position | Starting Rank | Finishing Rank |
| Viktor Hovland | T-2 | 57th | 16th |
| Eric Cole | T-18 | 54th | 46th |
| Nick Dunlap | T-5 | 67th | 48th |
Unfortunately for these three players, they were pushed out of the Top 50:
| Player | Position | Starting Rank | Finishing Rank |
| Tom Kim | T-50 | 43rd | 51st |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 58th | 48th | 52nd |
| Jake Knapp | 67th | 50th | 59th |
Here are the current FedEx Cup Point Standings.
This week’s field courtesy of PGA Tour Communications:
The Course
Castle Pines Golf Club is located in Castle Rock, Colo., which is a little less than 30 miles south of downtown Denver and a little less than 40 miles north of Colorado Springs. The Jack Nicklaus design opened in 1981 and hosted The International event, which featured a Modified Stableford scoring system, from 1986 to 2006.
The course will have the distinction of being the longest course ever played on the PGA Tour. The par-72 is listed at 8,130 yards but will play more like a 7,400-7,500-yard course because of the 6,300 feet of elevation (by far the most on tour).
In 2006 with help from Jack Nicklaus and Total Turf company, Castle Pines was renovated with new bunkers (77 total), rebuilt tees and greens, redesigned water features (10 water danger holes) and an almost entirely new third hole.
The average fairway width is around 35 yards. The rough is around four inches and is a mix of Kentucky bluegrass, fescue and ryegrass.
The majority of the greens slope from back to front and are a bentgrass (70%) and poa annua (30%) mix and will run fast at 13 on the stimpmeter.
Further course facts are provided by the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America.
Here is the official BMW Championship scorecard courtesy of PGATOUR.com:
CBS Sports’ Jim Nantz narrates a hole-by-hole flyover preview of Castle Pines for Golf Digest.
While there are no direct course correlations to Castle Pines, Muirfield Village is certainly a place to start because it is a Jack Nicklaus design with wider fairways into smaller targets onto fast greens. Of course, Muirfield Village was Jack’s ode to Augusta National, so that can be examined. Shadow Creek in Las Vegas hosted only one PGA Tour event (2020 CJ Cup) but is also played at altitude with elevation changes throughout the course. Summit Club, also in Las Vegas, hosted the 2021 CJ Cup and also has similar altitude and elevation changes as Shadow Creek.
BMW Championship Recent History
2023: Viktor Hovland (-17/263); Olympia Fields; 18-1
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14/270); Wilmington; 16-1
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27/261); Caves Valley; 25-1*
2020: Jon Rahm (-4/276); Olympia Fields; 10-1**
2019: Justin Thomas (-25/263); Medinah; 16-1
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20/260); Aronimink; 140-1***
2017: Marc Leishman (-23/261); Conway Farms; 45-1
2016: Dustin Johnson (-23/265); Crooked Stick; 10-1
2015: Jason Day (-22/262); Conway Farms; 15-2
2014: Billy Horschel (-14/266); Cherry Hills; 66-1
2013: Zach Johnson (-16/268); Conway Farms; 40-1
2012: Rory McIlroy (-20/268); Crooked Stick; 7-1
2011: Justin Rose (-13/271); Cog Hill; 66-1
2010: Dustin Johnson (-9/275); Cog Hill; 33-1
Playoff win over Bryson DeChambeau – *
Playoff win over Dustin Johnson – **
Playoff win over Justin Rose – ***
Statistical Analysis
While we have no historical data for Castle Pines like we do most regular PGA Tour stops to indicate important statistics, we can certainly make educated guesses on what will matter most for success this week. Like almost every Nicklaus design, Castle Pines will be a “second shot” golf course and approach play will go a long way to deciding who is victorious here.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 1.444
- Tony Finau 0.883
- Tom Hoge 0.857
- Xander Schauffele 0.812
- Corey Conners 0.801
- Aaron Rai 0.795
- Shane Lowry 0.600
- Ludvig Åberg 0.558
- Justin Thomas 0.552
- Akshay Bhatia 0.465
- Si Woo Kim 0.458
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.441
- Austin Eckroat 0.407
- Viktor Hovland 0.405
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.380
Typical of Nicklaus designs, the fairways are relatively wide and you can try to rip it off the tee with the driver, but trouble does lurk with thicker rough, so distance is not all that matters. Total Driving combines both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy.
Total Driving — Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Rory McIlroy 85 (2 + 83)
- Ludvig Åberg 88 (23 + 65)
- Scottie Scheffler 91 (70 + 21)
- Xander Schauffele 103 (36 + 67)
- Austin Eckroat 104 (86 + 18)
- Tommy Fleetwood 107 (98 + 9)
- Sam Burns 110 (38 + 72)
- Keegan Bradley 111 (51 + 60)
- Corey Conners 117 (83 + 34)
- Cameron Young 121 (23 + 98)
- Akshay Bhatia 122 (89 + 33)
- Davis Thompson 126 (45 + 81)
- Shane Lowry 128 (106 + 22)
- Max Greyserman 138 (9 + 129)
- Stephan Jaeger 138 (26 + 112)
- Collin Morikawa 138 (134 + 4)
Good Drive Percentage is the percentage of time a player hits a good drive. On par-4s and par-5s, the number of fairways hit, + the # of Greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot. / by the number of par-4d and par-5s played.
Good Drive Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Aaron Rai 88.03%
- Scottie Scheffler 86.85
- Collin Morikawa 85.71
- Sepp Straka 85.61
- Tommy Fleetwood 85.49
- Russell Henley 85.34
- Alex Noren 84.48
- Shane Lowry 84.22
- Viktor Hovland 84.11
- Corey Conners 84.00
- Akshay Bhatia 83.82
- Si Woo Kim 83.67
- Xander Schauffele 83.30
- Austin Eckroat 83.20
- Chris Kirk 83.18
While the course is listed as 700 yards longer than it was when Castle Pines was last utilized on the PGA Tour in 2006, there are still a fair amount of birdie opportunities.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 27.86%
- Sam Burns 25.20
- Xander Schauffele 25.04
- Wyndham Clark 24.77
- Tony Finau 24.74
- Byeong Hun An 24.63
- Nick Dunlap 24.51
- Tom Hoge 24.30
- Viktor Hovland 24.15
- Collin Morikawa 23.88
- Max Greyserman 23.75
- Ludvig Åberg 23.72
- Sungjae Im 23.70
- Davis Thompson 23.64
- Justin Thomas 23.63
There are 10 water danger holes and plenty of bunkers that guard elevated greens and runoff areas around the greens that can lead to some big numbers on scorecards.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Xander Schauffele 9.31%
- Scottie Scheffler 9.37
- Aaron Rai 11.87
- Alex Noren 12.16
- Collin Morikawa 13.02
- Tommy Fleetwood 13.05
- Billy Horschel 13.30
- Ludvig Åberg 13.32
- Hideki Matsuyama 13.42
- Russell Henley 13.50
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 13.58
- Jason Day 13.77
- Robert MacIntyre 13.77
- Davis Thompson 13.89
- Rory McIlroy 13.93
Despite three of the four par-5s measuring 600+ yards, these are birdie and/or eagle opportunities and players must be able to take advantage of them.
Par 5 Scoring Average (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 4.42
- Nick Dunlap 4.46
- Tony Finau 4.47
- Max Greyserman 4.48
- Patrick Cantlay 4.49
- Xander Schauffele 4.49
- Sam Burns 4.50
- Billy Horschel 4.51
- Taylor Pendrith 4.51
- Davis Thompson 4.51
- Stephan Jaeger 4.52
- Byeong Hun An 4.53
- Jason Day 4.53
- Tom Hoge 4.53
- Si Woo Kim 4.53
- Sahith Theegala 4.53
Penal runoff areas collect any errant approach shots, which means the short game will be tested.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.699
- Davis Thompson 0.455
- Alex Noren 0.430
- Collin Morikawa 0.425
- Justin Thomas 0.419
- Denny McCarthy 0.386
- Scottie Scheffler 0.381
- Tony Finau 0.363
- Rory McIlroy 0.313
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.267
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.266
- Max Homa 0.245
- J.T. Poston 0.244
- Stephan Jaeger 0.226
- Xander Schauffele 0.224
Scrambling (2024 PGA Tour season)
- Xander Schauffele 70.91%
- Hideki Matsuyama 68.18
- Scottie Scheffler 68.11
- Alex Noren 67.75
- Denny McCarthy 66.48
- Collin Morikawa 65.88
- Tommy Fleetwood 65.78
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 65.72
- Robert MacIntyre 64.93
- Billy Horschel 64.78
- Russell Henley 64.65
- Ludvig Åberg 64.54
- Jason Day 64.49
- Aaron Rai 64.29
- Patrick Cantlay 64.19
The greens at Castle Pines are fast (13 on the stimpmeter) and are predominantly bentgrass.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round — Fast Greens (Last 50 rounds)
- Matthieu Pavon 1.15 (8 rounds)
- Alex Noren 0.73
- Nick Dunlap 0.70 (9 rounds)
- Sahith Theegala 0.68
- Max Homa 0.65
- Denny McCarthy 0.60
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.59
- Max Greyserman 0.56 (10 rounds)
- Ludvig Åberg 0.55 (34 rounds)
- Sam Burns 0.53
- Adam Hadwin 0.46
- Tom Hoge 0.38
- Wyndham Clark 0.35
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.34
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.34
Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round — Bentgrass Greens (Last 50 rounds)
- Denny McCarthy 0.98
- Patrick Cantlay 0.88
- J.T. Poston 0.87
- Keegan Bradley 0.80
- Max Greyserman 0.73 (20 rounds)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.71
- Eric Cole 0.67
- Sam Burns 0.65
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.63
- Viktor Hovland 0.62
- Sahith Theegala 0.61
- Xander Schauffele 0.57
- Max Homa 0.56
- Sungjae Im 0.56
- Adam Hadwin 0.53
Selections
Patrick Cantlay (+2050, Circa Sports)
While Cantlay settled for a T-12 last week in Memphis, he was T-3 for last 36-hole and last 54-hole scoring last weekend.
Cantlay is also a proven winner on Nicklaus designs, having won The Memorial twice at Muirfield Village and the ZOZO Championship at Sherwood.
He also is a proven player at altitude having won his first pro event in Bogota, Colombia, on the then-Web.com Tour and has a victory plus three runners-up at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, plus a runner-up at TPC Scottsdale.
Wyndham Clark (33-1, Circa Sports)
Clark certainly has had his down points in the 2024 season missing three of four cuts at the majors.
However, he won at the rain-shortened event at Pebble Beach (cashing an 80-1 for us in the process), had two runners-up at The Players and the Arnold Palmer, plus a T-3 at the RBC Heritage and seems to be starting to peak at the end of the season with a T-7 last week in Memphis.
The Denver native has played this course more than any player in this field.
Tony Finau (33-1, FanDuel)
Speaking of players used to altitude, the Utah-born Finau, now a Phoenix resident, is certainly used to playing in these conditions.
Aside from winning for the first time in close to a year and a half, Finau is one spot out of automatic qualification for The Presidents Cup and needs a minimum solo third to earn the automatic spot.
Ranking sixth and 12th for Putting Average in his last two events points to a massive improvement with the putter.
Billy Horschel (40-1, FanDuel)
Horschel earned his third top-10 finish in a row last week with a T-10 in Memphis.
He is also a former winner of The Memorial at Muirfield Village and takes to Nicklaus designs very well.
Horschel won this event in 2014 the last time it was played in the Denver area at Cherry Hills.
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