U.S. Open Top Contenders
The U.S. Open will be held at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina June 13-16. Based on the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, here are the top 10 favorites and some notes on their chances for this week.
Scottie Scheffler (Win: +300 / Top 5: -120 / Top 10: -250)
Scheffler’s odds tell you everything you need to know about how dominant he has been this season. The OWGR and PGA No. 1 is the biggest favorite to win a major since Tiger Woods was listed at +180 to win the PGA Championship in 2009. Scheffler comes into this event after having won the Memorial Tournament last week, marking his fifth victory of the short season. Two of those wins came at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters, two of the bigger tournaments of the year. On top of that, Scheffler has finished inside the Top 10 in 12 of the 13 events he has played this season. He’s a factor every time he’s on the golf course, and he even finished T-8 when he showed up late to the PGA Championship because of a short stint in prison. He’s unflappable.
As far as the course goes, Scheffler fits pretty much anywhere. He’s first on the PGA TOUR in SG: Total and SG: Approach to Green, while also being second in SG: Off The Tee. He’s also first in Greens in Regulation Percentage and fourth in Scrambling. All of that is good enough to make up for him being just 71st in SG: Putting. In fact, he averages 5.22 birdies per round, which is the best mark on tour. And the tour average is just 3.77. He should navigate Pinehurst just fine.
Xander Schauffele (Win: 11-1 / Top 5: +240 / Top 10: +120)
Schauffele finally broke through and won his first major, shooting a 21-under to edge out Bryson DeChambeau in the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Course. The monkey is finally off the 30-year-old’s back, and that should allow him to play freely moving forward. That’s pretty dangerous for the rest of the golfers, as Schauffele often finds himself in positions to win and squanders opportunities.
Schauffele is likely going to have chances at Pinehurst, too. Schauffele doesn’t necessarily go that big off the tee, as he’s 41st in Driving Distance. But he’s seventh in SG: Off The Tee and 26th on the PGA TOUR in driving accuracy percentage. Combining that with the fact that he is second in SG: Total, sixth in SG: Approach to Green, first in Scrambling and 16th in SG:Putting, Schauffele is a threat to win anywhere.
Rory McIlroy (Win: 11-1 / Top 5: +250 / Top 10: +125)
McIlroy hasn’t been a real factor at a major in quite some time, but he has won two tournaments in 2024, played well at the RBC Canadian Open two weeks ago and is still a top-five player in both the FedExCup and OWGR rankings. McIlroy is also third on the PGA TOUR in SG: Total, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in SG: Off The Tee. And even some of McIlroy’s non-elite numbers aren’t bad. He just needs to find a way to put it all together on the biggest stage again.
Is McIlroy focused? That’s probably the biggest question with him. McIlroy resigned from his position on the PGA TOUR Policy Board, but he’s still peppered with questions about LIV Golf and the Public Investment Fund. He’s also going through an awful lot in his personal life. The four-time major champion is going to have to compartmentalize all of that in order to win this event.
Collin Morikawa (Win: 14-1 / Top 5: +320 / Top 10: +150)
Morikawa is coming off a second-place finish at the Memorial Tournament, The 27-year-old still hasn’t won any tournaments in 2024, but he’s certainly knocking on the door. He has six Top 10 finishes this season, and he has also finished T4 or better in each of his last three events. One of those was a stellar outing in which he shot 15-under at the PGA Championship — which is impressive considering he was T3 at the Masters. Morikawa will now be hoping that a great recent run of form will help him win his third major.
The good news for Morikawa is that Pinehurst is a course that rewards accuracy off the tee. Well, Moriakawa is first on the PGA TOUR in driving accuracy in 2024. He’s also one of the most reliable iron players in the world. He just needs to find a way to get hot with the putter. He’s only 96th on the PGA TOUR in SG: Putting this year. Morikawa’s putting has been rather poor in key moments, too.
Bryson DeChambeau (Win: 18-1 / Top 5: +400 / Top 10: +200)
It’s hard to compare DeChambeau to the rest of the field when it comes to key statistics. However, we know that the 30-year-old is long off the tee, and he’s averaging 320.9 yards per drive in LIV Golf this year. That’s the longest average amongst LIV golfers. Also, DeChambeau’s 72.45% GIR in LIV Golf would put him second on the PGA TOUR.
Of course, it’s easy to rule out what DeChambeau is doing in what is currently a lesser tour. But the last time we saw DeChambeau, he shot a 20-under to finish second at the PGA Championship. Considering DeChambeau also finished T6 at the Masters, it’s pretty safe to say he’s playing at a near-elite level right now. He needs to be taken very seriously at Pinehurst.
Viktor Hovland (Win: 20-1 / Top 5: +400 / Top 10: +200)
Hovland shot 18-under and finished third at the PGA Championship, marking a big-time return to form for the Norwegian. Hovland has always been one of the best ball-strikers on the planet, which is why he has been able to compete despite leaving a lot to be desired around the greens. But this weekend is really going to depend on which version of Hovland shows up. He looked like his former self at Valhalla, but Pinehurst has the potential to chew him up and spit him out.
Even at his very best, Hovland wasn’t very good when it came to Scrambling. And his driving accuracy isn’t exactly great. He’s going to need to put it together when it comes to both in order to play well on this golf course.
Brooks Koepka (Win: 20-1 / Top 5: +450 / Top 10: +210)
The last time the US Open was played at Pinehurst No. 2, Koepka finished T4. That was back when Koepka was only 24 years old, and the Florida native hadn’t yet won a major. Now, Koepka is a five-time major champion, and he won one as recently as last season. Koepka also happened to earn a victory at LIV Singapore, shooting a 15-under to edge out Cameron Smith in early May. He followed that up with another decent outing at LIV Houston. Sure, you can downplay LIV all you want, but good golf is good golf.
The reality is that Koepka is going to have a shot at winning this thing as long as he’s putting well. The two-time US Open champion is great off the tee and can hit every shot in the book with his irons. He just needs to make that count by taking advantage of the position he puts himself in on the greens.
Ludvig Aberg (Win: 22-1 / Top 5: +450 / Top 10: +210)
Aberg finished in second place at the Masters, but he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. The 24-year-old clearly has all the talent in the world, but he’s still capable of turning in some head-scratching performances on big stages. Theoretically, Aberg’s ball-striking should give him a chance anywhere, as he’s seventh on the PGA TOUR in SG: Total, 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 18th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 15th in SG: Approach the Green. On top of that, he’s 28th in Driving Distance and 24th in Driving Accuracy.
Aberg just needs to put it all together for an entire weekend, and it really starts with his iron play. If he can dial it in with those, he’s very much live to win on a course like this. The reality is that Aberg’s first major is coming very soon, so backing him until he wins one makes a lot of sense.
Jon Rahm (WD)
Rahm withdrew from the event on Tuesday, citing a foot infection.
Tommy Fleetwood (Win: 35-1 / Top 5: +650 / Top 10: +280)
It’s well documented that Fleetwood has never won a PGA TOUR event, but that’s going to have to change eventually. He’s too good to retire without a win, and he has won tournaments on the DP World Tour. And realistically, there’s no reason Fleetwood can’t win a major.
Fleetwood is also an interesting fit for this golf course. Pinehurst rewards guys that are accurate off the tee, and Fleetwood is third on the PGA TOUR in Driving Accuracy this year. On top of that, he’s one of the best in the business when it comes to iron play. And it’s not like he’s bad with the putter either. Fleetwood just needs to be a little more consistent on the greens, especially later in tournaments.
