Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, June 18 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Big Gain (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Big Gain
2. Palacios
3. Bourbon’s Fault
Mud and two turns the excuses I give BIG GAIN for his last race. Two-turn racing, in fact, has dominated his recent form – and I feel like this 7f trip with pace in front of him will prove more suitable. PALACIOS switches circuits in good form to go for the big money. Theoretically, the added one-turn ground will do him good. Got in two works for the new barn. If, as I see it, the race is top-heavy on speed, pricey BOURBON’S FAULT can run along for a piece of it.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Ez Pal
2. Get Your Steps In
3. Randie’s Rascal
Work video, as per usual with W Ward-trained horses, especially first-timers like EZ PAL, falls into the inscrutable range. General takeway – this horse has speed, this horse has talent, and this horse will break well. All that video on dirt, and he’s supposed to excel on turf. Similarly, the one work video for firster GET YOUR STEPS IN, the “half” from the gate on May 29, was of a potential turf horse working on dirt. GYSI on the inside of an unraced maiden who looked like they can run, broke sharply, got somewhat high-headed, high-kneed going toward wire, but then leveled out, and the more they asked, the more he kept giving. Could be something, RANDIE’S RASCAL got onto turf last time, which she almost certainly needs for her best, but ran into a Ward-trained rocket.
Second Race
1. Fifty Cent Dollars
2. Global Sensation
3. Derby Date
FIFTY CENT DOLLARS claimed for $16K two back, earned a tidy profit for these connections winning first start off the claim – so why not get aggressive and come right back in another $12.5K race, this one also offering vast riches for the class level? Got the ideal draw to make the most of what he has, and I’d expect something similar to his last race. On the other hand, not sure what to expect from GLOBAL SENSATION, who was in too tough last out, but returns on a mere week’s rest and did little actual competing last time. He did thrash DERBY DATE when they met earlier in the meet and would be “most likely winner” if you think he’s hitting his baseline. I’m dubious.
Third Race
1. Military Road
2. Fountain Run
3. Gewurztraminer
MILITARY ROAD barely home last time in NY but race not run to suit him, and he continued forging forward following the pasting two back of far lesser foes. Seems to be on trajectory to return to his very best again – might get the right setup at a fair price. There’s speed aplenty entered here – actually like FOUNTAIN RUN to be the one who on or near the gallop who stays on best, and not GEWURZTRAMINER. The latter, surely a short favorite, somewhat rushed into action off the $80K claim? On a losing streak? Not finishing things off? Form slipping?
Fourth Race
1. Hamlet
2. Kuch
3. Stoic Sage
Decent debut on turf for HAMLET, who showed zero last fall in his second and most recent outing, a KEE MSW dirt route. I look at this $30K MCL comeback race as a career reset. Strong work pattern. Likely value. Turf to dirt, MSW to MCL for KUCH, whose grass route speed could serve him well staying out of dirt kickback. STOIC SAGE’s three races – sloppy track, big trouble, Tapeta – might be more there, and I obviously am fading 6-5 M/L fave SUSAN’S BOY.
Fifth Race
1. Swill
2. Step Forward
3. Normandy Coast
SWILL needs scratches to draw in. Can we cross off his last six starts? I think we can – none on turf, and he’s a grass sprinter. There aren’t many of those here! First pass through the race, I kept toggling back to the conditions to see if I’d made a mistake, and this was a dirt race – so many dirt horses! Because of that, an actual turf sprinter who fits, STEP FORWARD, is going to get overbet. Granted, we could call him the most likely winner – but for the fact he never wins. NORMANDY COAST no turf starts and nothing in past or pedigree to say he’s a turf horse. On dirt, he’d be formidable.
Sixth Race
1. Whatever
2. Paired
3. Bourbon Rage
WHATEVER got the drop he needed to this $12.5K MCL level last time but didn’t get the right kind of race. That one-turn mile too sharp – this two-turn route more his style. Clunkety clunk clunk clunk – that’s the sound of PAIRED grinding through his two gears. Another who, like the top pick, requires two-turn racing. BOURBON RAGE tries dirt after three synth starts – expectations not high down at this level – a totally non-dirt pedigree here.
Eighth Race
1. My Boy Tony
2. Telescopic
3. Supercharger
MY BOY TONY is very, very much an “is who he is” horse – but that horse can win this race! I think 9f around two turns suits him better than the 11f around three he ran last time. Gets first run on closers, which will be key. TELESCOPIC can improve upon his most recent outings, but getting up to his very best might not get him a win – just that his price ought to be good enough that one might live with that marginal capability. As much as I liked the look of SUPERCHARGER’s win last time, it was immensely pace-aided in a way that’s not going to happen here as he steps up in class. Good bet last time, bad one this time.
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