MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, June 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage has a 3.78 ERA and a 3.58 fielding independent. His 4.7 walks per nine innings rate is a concern, but he is allowing only 0.6 home runs per nine innings and faces a Red Sox lineup that is 29th in the league in scoring at home with 3.5 runs per game. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray has his lowest strikeout rate in 10 seasons at 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but he has still been plenty effective with a 3.03 ERA while allowing only 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. He is also supported by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.15.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -108 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -131 and Total 7.7
2:35 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter owns a 4.86 ERA but a slightly lower 4.53 fielding independent with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Twins pitcher Joe Ryan is sporting a 3.17 ERA and a 2.89 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings, but that ERA rises to 3.60 on the road. The Twins also rank 29th in bullpen ERA at 5.09, while the Rangers rank eighth with a 3.44 ERA.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +113
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -101
4:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has pitched better than his 4.28 ERA would indicate, with a 3.25 fielding independent while allowing only one home run and 1.6 walks per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz appears to be improving as the season progresses. He owns a 4.06 ERA with 7.4 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed, but has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. The Orioles lineup also sees a dip in production away from home, averaging five runs per game at home compared to 4.2 runs per game on the road.
Pick: Orioles vs. Mariners Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.5
7:05 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers has had issues allowing hard contact, with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, which has inflated his ERA to 4.36. However, he is registering 9.8 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings. White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has a 4.15 ERA and a 4.04 fielding independent, but lowers his ERA to 3.60 away from home. While the Yankees lead the league in scoring at home with 5.6 runs per game, the injury to Aaron Judge should cause that average to decline.
Pick: White Sox vs. Yankees Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
7:15 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez has a 2.90 ERA this season, but a much higher 3.82 fielding independent with 7.4 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has pitched better than his 4.24 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 2.96 fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. However, he faces a Braves lineup that entered Wednesday fifth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. The Giants entered Wednesday ranked 21st in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, but have been better at the plate in June, averaging 4.9 runs per game through the first 13 games of the month.
Pick: Giants vs. Braves Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
7:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron has pitched better than his 4.11 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.48 fielding independent with one home run and 2.2 walks per nine innings. While he is supported by a lineup that ranks just 25th in scoring, the Royals have been significantly better at home. They are last in the league in road scoring with just over 3.5 runs per game, but average more than 4.4 runs per game at home. Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore is posting a 4.71 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -114
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -127
