Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, April 22 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Lazlo (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Lazlo
2. Warlander
3. Operation Overlord
Can’t say I really understand the listed prices here, especially on the top two picks, and most of all on Warlander. LAZLO, for his part, does not seem like an 8-1 shot, but this is a fairly difficult race (big field, apparently well-matched) to price. Lazlo’s first start for trainer M Maker yielded a good second of 10 racing at this class level and distance over Turfway Tapeta, and that being his first out in nearly three months, he had a right to get a little tired late in the game. Showed he does stay, however, and is a fairly lightly raced 4yo who finished a competitive fourth last fall in the G3 Hill Prince fresh off a $40K claim. Think he’s set for the best race of his career, and the tactical pace can help him save some ground and avoid traffic jams. WARLANDER still wasn’t winning, but with the addition of blinkers last summer he started coming close. Subpar showings his first two outs on Tapeta, and the much-improved race last time hints at a horse on the rise who switches back to his preferred surface. Was OPERATION OVERLORD that much better in blinkers his last two than without them in his second start? Just four starts and barely missed last out in a similar spot at Gulfstream; respect chances, and barn was on fire at KEE last week, but guessing he’s too short a price with Irad for TAP.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Wednesday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Big Gain
2. Get Her Number
3. Tiverton
BIG GAIN made a big leap after being claimed for $40K in August. New connections didn’t / couldn’t run him until December, and he immediately hit a career peak. The $12.5K race that makes him eligible for this came about a year ago, long before he improved. Like him cutting back from solid route tries to a longer sprint. Strong work pattern, though in lone work video he’s asked for next to nothing. Don’t trust GET HER NUMBER to run right back to those RP and FG races, and this 8yo figures to get hammered in the betting. The very high-percentage trainer solid, not spectacular with KEE claiming and allowance runners. This horse has been around the block. His 7f record looks good enough, but I suspect he prefers 6f. Looking for TIVERTON to make a mild close and pass Air of Defiance for third.
Second Race
1. Ruiva
2. Express Success
3. Sanchoo
Maybe I’m misreading it, but think the morning line has the wrong W Ward horse favored. If nothing else, I can’t see RUIVA being 9-2 to Sanchoo’s 8-5. I like the look of Ruiva’s works better than Sanchoo’s, in any case – she appears to be very good out of the gate, and the filly seems to have some substance. Ward scratched her out of an MSW last week, thinking he could win it with his other horse, who might be a grass and did not fire on dirt. EXPRESS SUCCESS, like most of her siblings, ready to run early. Can’t glean too much from the team workout video, but if I had to guess based on them – and I suppose I do have to do that – would say she’s enough of a runner to contend. Only a handful of all the workouts are on video, and it’s entirely possible SANCHOO has worked better than I realize. Also possible, given the way this barn works horses, I am not understanding the nature of her works that I watched. But what we’re getting at here – not especially impressed. JETTIE’S BEACH might be all right but seems to have struggled with lead changes in stretch run of works.
Third Race
1. Don’t Say It
2. Commanded
3. Right Now
It’s a confusing race to begin with, a bunch of horses who on the whole look more like conditioned than open claimers, and to add another layer of uncertainty, there’s no pace. Probably in such a case it’s a better idea to try and beat the favorite, but DON’T SAY IT, from the available evidence, just looks best to me. That “available evidence,” to be clear, includes zero races on a fast dirt track. But while she’s mainly been turf/synth, her wet-track run last fall at KEE was just fine, and it came against better competition than this. Cleared that N3L condition with the last-out TP win and is spotted realistically but somewhat positively for the open $25K tag. COMMANDED comes in fresh and had a less-than-ideal trip racing over the KEE strip last October. She’s not especially fast, and I can’t really even glean her preferred style, but seems to fit better here than many. RIGHT NOW 4-0-0-0 on dirt, but that was the very start of her career and three of the races came before she started running in blinkers.
Fifth Race
1. Jack Charles
2. Tenacity
3. Rare Eclipse
Trainer W Ward with dirt-sprint, maiden-claiming, first-time starters at KEE: 16-4-7-2, and 11 of 16 first or second is a strong number. Ward firster JACK CHARLES is by Pinatubo out of a Siyouni mare, that is, all turf, but he seems to move just fine in dirt workout video, and I’d go so far as to say he’s worked encouragingly for a horse at this level. Posted his first breeze way back in Feb. 2024, and 4yo has taken forever to make the races – now that they got him here, they’re entering to win (or so the theory goes). TENACITY did nothing in two Turfway Tapeta MSW starts. This is a KEE dirt maiden-claimer, and Tenacity runs as a gelding for the first time. Just saying those TTC works since he received the unkindest cut look suggestive, especially at this price. RARE ECLIPSE’s lone dirt sprint was poor, but it came, FWIW, without Lasix, and since he didn’t even work back for several months, fair to assume that’s not a true gauge. First-time tagged for a live KEE barn.
Sixth Race
1. Me Governor
2. Pandora’s Gift
3. Big Trouble
ME GOVERNOR a turf-sprint stakes winner as a 2yo of 2024, and a year ago at KEE she came within one length of the mighty Shesospicy despite losing all kinds of ground from a wide draw. Development stalled a little — or at least wasn’t linear – second part of last year, but she still showed signs, and her 4yo bow suggested she’ll be better this year, especially back on preferred surface. Two KEE work videos and I thought for a turf horse breezing on dirt she looked pretty good, particularly on April 15. Will need to step forward to win, but price should be right. PANDORA’S GIFT clearly, clearly, clearly the horse to beat and deserving favorite. That said, she had a very light campaign the second half of last year, and after nearly winning the PID Masters in 2024, she clunked in it on Sept. 19, her most recent outing. That all might mean nothing, but she’s an odds-on favorite I don’t mind taking on. BIG TROUBLE is the other proven older-horse turf sprint stakes performer, though her best is a notch below Pandora’s. She did get a great setup in the FG stakes win three back.
Seventh Race
1. Evanescence
2. Roswell
3. Lynn’s Milky Way
EVANESCENCE ran really well over the KEE main track winning off in an N1X sprint a year ago, and I look for something even better this time. She lost the OP start last out with a troubled beginning, finishing fastest and looking pretty good in so doing. Back on fairly short rest, but also got in two CD drills since the 3/27 race – a good sign. Well drawn for a clear outside stalking/closing run, and ought to have pace to chase over a surface that has not carried speed this meet. ROSWELL was good last fall, and was even better two summers ago – she’s got a contending race in her. Don’t know what was up last out at GP, where she’d run well as a younger horse. Broke flat-footed and completely lost touch with the pack. You might’ve wondered at the 3f pole if she was going to pick up her feet – but she did! Easily the fastest finish in the race and she blew by everyone not far into the gallop-out. LYNN’S MILKY WAY faded late in her last start, passed by Beyond Belief, but while BB sat back and watched it all unfold in front of her, LMM broke from the rail and had a demanding journey racing just inside the very sharp pace-setting winner, R Disaster.
Eighth Race
1. Lahainaluna
2. Gold Sovereign
3. Go for Rocket
Tricky one to end the card. 4yo LAHAINALUNA, an even run at best, debuting in January over FG dirt. Shipped to Turfway shortly before his second out there on March 18, and ran much better over the Tapeta. The guess is – he hits a peak third time out and turns out to prefer turf. Looks like the type to stay 9f and could get a solid stalking trip. GOLD SOVEREIGN will be among the shorter prices, and probably deservedly so, but I’m not sure he has enough to overcome a wide draw without a lot of luck. Was gradually getting to an average-for-the-class level winner last fall at KEE. Clearly aimed this way for a couple months. 3yo GO FOR ROCKET faces elders, but after two duds as a 2yo, his 3yo bow showcased a much better horse – one who can continue improving.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
Put yourself in position to win big this year with DRF’s Kentucky Derby Package. Top data and trusted picks all in one place.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
