Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Playoffs First Round Game 2s. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* ATLANTA is 19-35 SU and 16-38 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since Apr 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6.5 at NYK)
* First Round Game 2s with double-digit home favorites have gone Under the total at a 15-6 (71.4%) clip since 2013, with only seven of the visiting foes eclipsing 100 points.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-BOS (o/u at 216.5), POR-SAS (o/u at 219.5), PHX-OKC (o/u at 213.5)
* #2 seeds start fast – #2 seeded teams are on a run of 44-8 SU and 34-18 ATS (65.4%) in the first two games of first round series over the last 13 years.
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-13.5 vs PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs POR)
NBA First Round Trends/Systems
First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range
Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 102-15 SU and 71-46 ATS (60.7%).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs TOR), BOSTON (-13.5 vs PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs POR), DETROIT (-9.5 vs ORL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 vs PHX)
Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet – Only 12 of the last 62 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 50-12 SU and 40-21-1 ATS (65.6%).
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 at LAL)
With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last six postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 88-65-5 (57.5%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 77-69-2 (52.7%).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-CLE (o/u at 222.5), MIN-DEN (o/u at 230.5), POR-SAS (o/u at 219.5), ORL-DET (o/u at 218.5)
UNDER – ATL-NYK (o/u at 217.5), PHI-BOS (o/u at 216.5), HOU-LAL (o/u at 205.5), PHX-OKC (o/u at 213.5)
Last Game Trends
Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 68-127 SU and 81-112-2 ATS (42%) in the next contest since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+9.5 at CLE), PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at BOS), PHOENIX (+17.5 at OKC), PORTLAND (+11.5 at SAS)
Teams that shoot 40% or less from the floor in a first round game have been lousy bets in the next contest, going 56-79-3 ATS (41.5%) since 2014.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-4.5 at LAL), PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at BOS), PHOENIX (+17.5 at OKC)
Beware of teams that shoot the 3pt shot well in one game but still lose. Those that shot 40.0% or better on 3-point shots but still lost have gone just 25-46-1 ATS (35.2%) in the next contest since 2016 in the first round.
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+9.5 at CLE)
First Round Trends by Game Number
Over the last nine non-neutral playoff seasons, first round game 2 hosts are on a 57-15 SU and 48-24 ATS (66.7%) run!
Trend Matches: PLAY ON ALL EIGHT HOME TEAMS
Opening game home winners are, of course, also a solid game 2 bet – Contrary to popular “yin and yang” bettors’ beliefs, home teams that won in game 1 of a first round series are 39-12 SU and 33-18 ATS (64.7%) since 2016. However, they were 2-4 ATS last spring.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs TOR), NEW YORK (-6.5 vs ATL), DENVER (-7.5 vs MIN), BOSTON (-13.5 vs PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs POR), LA LAKERS (+4.5 vs HOU), OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 vs PHX)
Game 2s with double-digit home favorites have gone Under the total at a 15-6 (71.4%) clip since 2013, with only seven of the visiting foes eclipsing 100 points.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-BOS (o/u at 216.5), POR-SAS (o/u at 219.5), PHX-OKC (o/u at 213.5)
Trends by Seed Number
#1 seeds are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) in their last 13 first round games when trailing in a series.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-9.5 vs ORL)
#2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 75-17 SU and 58-34 ATS (63%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
#2 seeds start fast – #2 seeded teams are on a run of 44-8 SU and 34-18 ATS (65.4%) in the first two games of first round series over the last 13 years.
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-13.5 vs PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs POR)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 25-42 SU and 24-40-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-4.5 at LAL), ORLANDO (+9.5 at DET), PHOENIX (+17.5 at OKC)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 87-44 SU and 76-51-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs ATL), SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs POR)
* NBA teams playing on road in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 17-4 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-NYK (o/u at 217.5), PHI-BOS (o/u at 216.5), POR-SAS (o/u at 219.5), HOU-LAL (o/u at 205.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 61-21 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-CLE (o/u at 222.5), ATL-NYK (o/u at 217.5), MIN-DEN (o/u at 230.5), PHI-BOS (o/u at 216.5), POR-SAS (o/u at 219.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 24-5 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): HOU-LAL (o/u at 205.5), PHX-OKC (o/u at 213.5)
* CLEVELAND is just 20-22 SU and 13-29 ATS (31%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs TOR)
* ATLANTA is 19-35 SU and 16-38 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since April 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6.5 at NYK)
* ATLANTA is 143-112 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYK (o/u at 217.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 30-13 Over the total playing on the road in OneDayRest games since November 2024
* BOSTON is 20-4 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since June 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in PHI-BOS (o/u at 216.5)
* PHOENIX is 3-11 SU and ATS playing on the road in 3rd in 8+ Days games since February 2023
* PHOENIX is 10-9 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG this season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PHOENIX (+17.5 at OKC)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:
Monday, April 20, 2026
(501) TORONTO at (502) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are 6-3 ATS in the last nine of the TOR-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+9.5 at CLE)
(503) ATLANTA at (504) NEW YORK
* Underdogs are 6-5 SU and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the Hawks-Knicks set
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 at NYK)
(505) MINNESOTA at (506) DENVER
* MINNESOTA is 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 visits to Ball Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+7.5 at DEN)
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
(511) PHILADELPHIA at (512) BOSTON
* Home teams are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six of the PHI-BOS divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-13.5 vs PHI)
(513) PORTLAND at (514) SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between Portland and San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs POR)
(515) HOUSTON at (516) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+4.5 vs HOU)
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
(519) ORLANDO at (520) DETROIT
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Magic-Pistons set in the Motor City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-DET (o/u at 218.5)
(521) PHOENIX at (522) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is on 12-3 run in the Suns-Thunder series in Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 213.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 144-127 (53.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 363-294 (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-SAS (spread -11.5, total 219.5), PHX-OKC (spread -17.5, total 213.5)
UNDER – PHI-BOS (spread -13.5, total 216.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Playoff large wins also lead to Unders
In the playoffs, NBA teams off a 30-point win have had their next game totals go Under at a 28-14-1 (66.7%) rate in the last five seasons.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-BOS (o/u at 216.5), PHX-OKC (o/u at 213.5)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 411-358 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-CLE (o/u at 222.5), ORL-DET (o/u at 218.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 360-367 SU and 330-389-8 ATS (45.9%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs TOR), LA LAKERS (+4.5 vs HOU)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 185-126 SU and 177-127-7 ATS (58.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 vs PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 83-111-1 ATS (42.8%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 vs MIN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 20, 2026. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, HOUSTON, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, HOUSTON, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW YORK, PORTLAND, HOUSTON, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, NEW YORK ML, DENVER ML, BOSTON ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, HOUSTON ML, DETROIT ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-CLE, ATL-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-CLE, POR-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-BOS, POR-SAS, HOU-LAL, ORL-DET, PHX-OKC
UNDER – ATL-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYK
NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +9.5 (+2.7)
2. PHOENIX +17.5 (+1.8)
3. ORLANDO +9.5 (+0.9)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -13.5 (+0.5)
2. NEW YORK -6.5 (+0.2)
3. SAN ANTONIO -11.5 (+0.1)
Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +11.5 (+2.0)
2. PHILADELPHIA +13.5 (+1.9)
3. TORONTO +9.5 (+1.1)
Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-LAL OVER 205.5 (+3.6)
2(tie). POR-SAS OVER 219.5 (+1.2)
PHX-OKC OVER 213.5 (+1.2)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-DET UNDER 218.5 (-4.0)
2. PHI-BOS UNDER 216.5 (-2.5)
3. ATL-NYK UNDER 217.5 (-0.9)
Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +7.5 (+1.8)
2. TORONTO +9.5 (+1.7)
3. PHOENIX +17.5 (+1.6)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON -13.5 (+0.5)
Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-LAL OVER 205.5 (+3.5)
2. POR-SAS OVER 219.5 (+1.1)
3. ORL-DET OVER 218.5 (+0.9)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BOS UNDER 216.5 (-2.6)
2. ATL-NYK UNDER 217.5 (-2.4)
3. MIN-DEN UNDER 230.5 (-0.8)
