Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Friday, July 10 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 1.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Hadrian’s Wall (1st race)
First Race
1. Hadrian’s Wall
2. Presidential Power
3. Pauillac
HADRIAN’S WALL has run well in all three starts to date while failing to break through, and he owns the top three figures in this field; looms a short price as he breaks from the rail to make his second start as a 3yo. PRESIDENTIAL POWER has a distance pedigree, and he did not look completely fit pre-race in the sprint debut last month; can improve quickly with that one behind him. PAUILLAC earned a 76 Beyer while finishing second two starts back, and the horse that crossed the wire right behind him returned to defeat three of these same rivals, including HADRIAN’S WALL, in his next start; needs to rebound after disappointing at a short price last time at Monmouth.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Saratoga card.
Second Race
1. Mary’s Gunna Run
2. Pros and Cons
3. Bittersweet Memory
MARY’S GUNNA RUN tracked behind a rated pace, then was bumped while commencing her rally in the stretch, before finishing a gaining second in a promising debut run sprinting; bred to get better with distance, and this has long been a positive move for Motion – past five years, 2yo, maiden, second career start, sprint-to-route, turf: 27%, $2.97 ROI. PROS AND CONS also debuted sprinting on turf, and she was also forced to try to close down a front-running winner after coming wide to the stretch; Justify filly from the female family of excellent turf routers Crimson Advocate, Data Link, and Hymn Book is likely to appreciate this added ground, and she has her main rival outposted. BITTERSWEET MEMORY debuts for one of the most underrated first-out trainers in the game, and she appeared to outwork a couple of stablemates in that turf drill on 6/29; don’t overlook, especially if she is a price.
Third Race
1. Trust Fund
2. Kenny Be
3. New York Scrappy
TRUST FUND worked his way into form after returning from a long layoff early last year, and he capped off a three-race winning streak with a score over this track in this condition last summer; he has held that form without a break since then, with some legit excuses for the apparent “off” races along the way; best effort makes him competitive as he drops back into a better spot to make his second start off the claim. KENNY BE finished behind TRUST FUND while that one was on a good run last June, then something appeared to go wrong in his next start, leading to an eight-month break; looked as good as ever winning two back, and he was game to get second here last month in a fast race that was dominated on the lead. In form NEW YORK SCRAPPY has been in the exacta in six of eight since being claimed by the Kantarmaci’s last December (four wins); has handled everything thrown at him recently with wins over fast and wet dirt, as well as turf; going good now and has speed from the rail.
Fourth Race
1. Elnajd
2. Thirteen Colonies
3. Favorable Scenario
ELNAJD began with potential on dirt, though he is bred for grass, and losses as the favorite at Fair Grounds and Keeneland allowed Cox to make the surface switch here last month; he was forced to back out of position after exchanging some bumps with a rival to his outside up the backstretch, but appeared to be traveling well on the final turn when he took an awkward step and lost his momentum; giving him another chance. THIRTEEN COLONIES developed rapidly out of a green debut as a 3yo, and he was an impressive maiden winner at Keeneland before shipping here to finish a good second in his next turf start; returns from the layoff as a new gelding. FAVORABLE SCENARIO has upped his game with each turf start to date while facing strong competition; pulled a cleaner trip than did ELNAJD when finishing well for second-best in his return from the layoff; big threat right back.
Fifth Race
1. Dapper Moon
2. Contrary Thinking
3. Whatchatalkinabout
DAPPER MOON failed to stretch out effectively after a promising start to his career on this track a couple of summers ago. He looked good while rallying to win back-to-back starts earlier this year, then raced closer to the pace before being forced to try to rally up the rail in that last one; versatile 4yo needs his best, but he can go with these horses at a fair price. CONTRARY THINKING scored a convincing allowance win with a 95 Beyer last June, before spending the rest of 2025 serving as a pacemaker for stablemate Sierra Leone; has run well in both starts so far this year, including that tough-beat second in his first start for this trainer last month; figures tough right back. WHATCHATALKINABOUT followed up a 106 Beyer-effort early last year with a Grade 3 win, then ran another fast race over this track two starts later when just missing in a race similar to this one; makes his third start off the layoff and switches from turf to dirt for a high-percentage trainer.
Sixth Race
1. Jordan’s Love
2. Felixyn
3. Gum
JORDAN’S LOVE is bred for grass and distance, but she was in tough in the turf and route debut when facing stakes-bound Right Timing, as well as next-out winner River Ride; got stuck in a wide trip from a tough outside post in an effort that is not as bad as it looks last time; rates another chance. FELIXYN was in a cheaper race when scoring an upset win on debut, only to be disqualified for interference; was in a race similar to this one last time, when losing position on the turn and then finishing well too late; figured tough right back, though she is likely to be a shorter price this time. GUM has hit the board in four of her six starts so far, all in the MSW ranks; just missed getting up in a blanket finish last time at Laurel; third off the layoff and breaks from a perfect inside post.
Seventh Race
1. Shades of Jade
2. Sadie Earp
3. Quiet Confidence
SHADES OF JADE improved race by race up to the easy maiden win last October; made it two in a row when turning back a furlong to win her next start at Gulfstream, then might have made it three in a row if not for getting shut off on the rail in the stretch the last time she was on turf; giving her a pass for that last one on a different surface. SADIE EARP failed to stretch out effectively two back, but she has otherwise run races that make her dangerous in here with ample early speed; just dominated her 3yo debut on the lead with a big new Beyer top for Ward; threat right back. QUIET CONFIDENCE won each of her first two starts on turf last summer with competitive figures, then tried stakes company in her next two to no avail; versatile 5yo just has to be ready off the layoff.
Eighth Race
1. Play Good Pay Good
2. Jackie the Joker
3. Miss Lao
PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD’s three most recent wins have come at Finger Lakes, but she has already proven that she can run her race elsewhere, with prior wins at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Keeneland; ships back to this circuit while in good form, and she can run her race with or without the lead. JACKIE THE JOKER has already won four times this year, including the last two downstate with figures that make her the one to beat in this spot; hard to go against as the in-form speed. MISS LAO was no match for the top one at Finger Lakes two back, but she got right back on track when winning 20-days later going a mile; off the claim again, but she runs for everyone.
Ninth Race
1. Iron Orchard
2. Goodall
3. Peach Tie
IRON ORCHARD impressed winning the first two starts of her career over this track while flashing big speed; proved that she can rate and run when taking the Grade 1 Frizette over a mile before an unsuccessful trip to California for the Breeders’ Cup that is hard to hold against her; has changed hands since last seen, but she still has plenty of upside, and she appears to be training forwardly for her return. GOODALL owns some of the top figures in this field, and she bounced back nicely to win the Jersey Girl over two of her main rivals on this track last month; tactical filly is perfectly drawn on the outside. PEACH TIE will get tested for class in this spot, but she has looked good dominating weaker in Maryland and is currently undefeated sprinting on dirt in her career; passes the eye test, now has to get faster.
Tenth Race
1. Rare Eclipse
2. Relative Risk
3. Two Ducks
RARE ECLIPSE faced a much tougher field in his debut here last summer, and he failed to break sharply from the gate in that spot; improved in his next turf start when bumped hard at the break, before finishing gamely to no avail; looks well-spotted returning to the grass to make her first start for Brion. RELATIVE RISK is by a versatile sire, and his dam was a debut winner with an 82 Beyer; shows some stops and starts on the work tab, but has some pedigree to work with for an underrated trainer. TWO DUCKS has hit the board in all three starts since returning to turf at this level; he showed improved speed in that last one when prevailing in a duel before having to settle for second; tries again.
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