MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, July 10.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat owns a 5.13 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 4.2 walks allowed per nine innings and faces a Pirates lineup that leads the league in home scoring with 5.7 runs per game. Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft owns a 3.24 ERA with one home run and 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings but faces a Brewers lineup that ranks fourth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -126 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -139 and Total 8.9
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has had major issues this season with a 5.87 ERA, but his lower 4.84 fielding independent, along with 9.2 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings, points toward positive regression. Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has also struggled, posting a 4.60 ERA with 4.4 walks per nine innings, and now faces a Phillies lineup that ranks seventh in scoring since June 1 with more than 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -116
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
While the Nationals are officially giving Carson Palmquist the start, Zack Littell is expected to serve as the bulk pitcher. Although Littell owns some ugly overall numbers this season with a 5.02 ERA and a 6.21 fielding independent while allowing 2.3 home runs per nine innings, the Nationals are 7-5 in his last 12 appearances. He also owns a 3.03 ERA when pitching out of the bullpen compared to a 6.07 ERA and nearly three home runs allowed per nine innings as a starter. Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers owns a 4.29 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings and has surrendered at least four runs in five of his past seven starts. Meanwhile, the Yankees are averaging just 3.2 runs per game over their past 19 games.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +142
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals +127
7:05 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Royals starting pitcher Luinder Avila owns a rough 5.05 ERA this season, but that number is skewed by a start against the Astros in which he allowed eight runs in two-thirds of an inning. Removing that outing, he owns a much more respectable 3.71 ERA. The Royals offense ranks 28th in road scoring with 3.8 runs per game. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young has posted a 3.38 ERA while allowing just 0.8 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Royals vs. Orioles Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene was roughed up in his first MLB start of the season against the Orioles, allowing eight runs in 3 1/3 innings after not allowing a single run over 14 1/3 innings across his three minor league rehab starts. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga owns a 4.28 ERA and a 4.67 fielding independent while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Since June 1, the Reds rank 14th in bullpen ERA, while the Cubs rank 23rd over that span with a 5.12 ERA.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -105
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -132
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo has struggled this season with a 4.79 ERA, though his 3.83 fielding independent points toward positive regression. However, the Mariners rank just 27th in scoring with fewer than 4.1 runs per game. Rays starter Nick Martinez owns the same 3.83 fielding independent as Castillo. Although he records only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings, he has maintained a 2.61 ERA by allowing just 0.9 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -105 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -108 and Total 8.3
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
The Guardians are averaging just 3.5 runs per game over their past 31 games and now face Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara, whose strikeout rate has dipped to 6.7 per nine innings. Even so, he owns a 4.00 ERA and a 3.84 fielding independent while allowing only 0.9 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings. Guardians starter Parker Messick owns a 2.80 ERA with just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, but Cleveland is backed by the weaker bullpen, ranking 10th in ERA at 3.79 compared to Miami’s seventh-ranked 3.72. The Marlins also rank eighth in scoring since June 1 with 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -127
7:40 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Athletics starting pitcher Aaron Civale gets to face one of his former teams and enters with a 5.10 ERA and a 5.50 fielding independent while allowing two home runs per nine innings. White Sox starter Sean Burke has posted a 3.71 ERA with 1.1 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 14th in ERA at 4.06, while the Athletics rank 27th at 5.03.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -146
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -168
9:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
While Padres starting pitcher JP Sears has been respectable in three MLB starts this season with a 4.70 ERA, his 6.03 fielding independent with 2.3 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings points toward regression. That concern is heightened after he posted a 7.92 ERA for Triple-A El Paso with 1.4 home runs and four walks per nine innings following a 5.47 ERA with 2.6 home runs per nine innings in five MLB starts for the Padres last season. Blue Jays starter Shane Bieber has also struggled with a 9.00 ERA through three starts, allowing 13 runs in 13 innings, but he benefits from facing a Padres lineup that ranks last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game, a number that drops closer to 3.6 runs per game at home.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -104
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -121
10:15 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray owns a 3.45 ERA this season, but his 4.70 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 4.1 walks allowed per nine innings suggests some regression could be coming. He faces a Rockies lineup that ranks eighth in scoring with nearly 4.9 runs per game. Rockies starter Tanner Gordon owns a 6.95 ERA while allowing 2.2 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Rockies vs. Giants Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
