Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, July 4 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Waggley (5th race
Fifth Race
1. Waggley
2. Booked
3. Goodbye to Romance
WAGGLEY could hardly have been more impressive when showing big speed en route to winning her debut under a hammerlock; she didn’t earn much of a figure for the stakes win over a pair of colts last time, but there was a wet track in play, and she was unfazed by early trouble in that spot; Ward elects to bypass the filly race on Friday to enter her against colts once again. BOOKED flashed potential through a troubled trip on debut; was much more professional winning the second start with a solid figure over this track; might be the one to beat for a trainer who excels with 2yos. GOODBYE TO ROMANCE was kept after the leaders in a three-wide trip, and he put in a solid finish to take over in the final furlong of what appeared to be a well-meant debut; has continued to train well since; steps up and gets Prat.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other ten races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Mashallah
2. Lightscape
3. Feminism
MASHALLAH flashed big speed, made a clear lead, then turned away a pair of challengers en route to a highly-rated debut win sprinting; had to work much harder to make the lead when out to a mile to face a strong field in her second start, and she got tired in the stretch; turns back and looks like the main speed in this short field. LIGHTSCAPE has earned identical 61 Beyers in all three starts to date, though that is ostensibly 2yo form, and she was impressive winning her debut from off the pace sprinting; drops out of a pair of stakes and turns back with plenty of room to improve at a price; Lasix on. FEMINISM had handy speed to get a nice pace-tracking trip, and edged away late to score a debut victory with a solid figure; could only chase along the inside while no match for allowance rivals last time; still has plenty to prove, but she is likely a better fit in this spot.
Second Race
1. Special Wood
2. Eponine
3. Accent
SPECIAL WOOD impressed winning the first two starts of her career from last-to-first in France, though she has been no match for stakes horses in three starts since; her rider seemed intent on getting her taken back to last in the 3yo debut when last seen, and she was always too far away, before passing a few horses late; has something to prove now, and she needs a trip, but she returns to her available condition for this, and there might be some pace in front of her. EPONINE’s two career wins came on a different surface, though she was twice stakes placed on turf in France before shipping over; got up close to a moderate pace, but could only chase to no avail and was outfinished for second in her stateside debut, which came in another stakes race; still not sure how good she is, but she might have run just as well as the winner when coming up short off the bench last time, with trips likely making the difference. ACCENT won the first three starts of her career while steadily moving forward; has proven to be no match for stakes horses in her last two starts; figures tough in here.
Third Race
1. Saint Tropez
2. Shelzawa
3. Nonconsecutivetrms
SAINT TROPEZ is a half-sister to a Grade 3 route winner, from the female family of multiple Group 1 turf winners Aljabr and Sierra Madre (second dam); newcomer breaks from a perfect post with some solid breezes showing for a very dangerous barn – first-time starters, NYRA: 4 for his last 15, 27%, $3.67 ROI. SHELZAWA just missed in both starts in France on the all-weather surface going longer; was particularly eye-catching in the debut when shuffled to last and waited with for a long way before flying home; was taken back and saved all the ground in her first start for Brown here last month, but Prat didn’t take the opportunity to get into the clear when he had the chance in the stretch, and her rail rally fell short; rates another chance. NONCONSECUTIVETRMS faced solid competition as a 2yo while going 0-5; has run well in all five starts, including the lone off-the-board finish when blocked in the stretch, but she has also blown a couple of clear stretch leads along the way; tries again.
Fourth Race
1. Lightning Strike
2. Princess Wadadli
3. Grace and Grit
LIGHTNING STRIKE was bet down for her debut early last year, and she did not disappoint while blowing that field away, mostly on her own power; missed a lot of time after that, and she ran well when making a move to contention and only flattening out late in her return last month on turf; enters back without a break this time. PRINCESS WADADLI got early control and was never seriously threatened when scoring her maiden win over a suspect group in January; had an excuse for the second start when breaking from an outside post and stuck chasing three-wide over an inside, speed-favoring track; didn’t earn much of a figure off the layoff, but she looked good running over a lone speed going that shorter distance; still has upside for an underrated trainer. GRACE AND GRIT has been in the exacta in all four starts since the trainer switch, and she ran quite well in both losses, including that last one when finishing gamely into a front-running winner over a track that was kind to speed; threat right back.
Sixth Race
1. Cristobal
2. Rhyton
3. Stormy Birthday
CRISTOBAL ran well in both starts over course and distance as a juvenile, including the maiden win when always on the outside and brushing in the stretch before gunning down a clear leader; failed to break sharply from the gate, then was very conservatively ridden before finishing well in a useful effort vs several of these same rivals off the layoff last time. RHYTON earned a competitive figure handling maiden claimers in his debut; exits the same race as the top one, and he also had trouble in that race, both early and late; can do a lot better. STORMY BIRTHDAY was competitive in all six starts sprinting on turf last year, beginning with an upset maiden win on the lead; looked like he might have really needed that first start back when pressing the pace before giving way readily in the stretch; versatile in terms of running style and eligible to improve quickly.
Seventh Race
1. Abashiri
2. Faithful Departed
3. Imaginationthelady
ABASHIRI impressed winning her debut with a big finish after getting handily placed early on the all-weather; went right into a pair of Guineas to kick off the 3yo campaign, and she acquitted herself well both times, despite being no real match for those horses late; bred to go on for top connections, and she looks like a nice fit in this spot. FAITHFUL DEPARTED keeps improving, and she has looked quite good winning her two most recent starts with big finishes up the inside; had no trouble handling this distance when earning a field-best 91 Beyer last time; threat right back. IMAGINATIONTHELADY was convincing winning her first two starts with different running styles, before finishing a game fourth at the Breeders’ Cup after a hard bump at the start; looked like she might have been just a bit short off the bench at Keeneland, but she was tighter in the Edgewood last time when parlaying a perfect trip into a narrow win; respect.
Eighth Race
1. Yo Daddy
2. Antiquarian
3. Tiztastic
Inconsistency is part of the package with YO DADDY, who isn’t always a willing partner for his rider, but his good race is quite good, and he does not struggle with distance, at least when he manages to settle early; ran poorly when shipped out of town last time, but he has bounced back from subpar efforts several times in the past; needs his absolute best, but he can get the right trip if the expected pace develops, and he will be a price. ANTIQUARIAN was a Grade 1 winner over this track and trip last August, with a pair of Breeders’ Cup Classic winners behind him – troubled trips or not; has concentrated on shorter races with the Met Mile his main goal for the first part of the year, and he probably got the wrong trip in that race when aggressively ridden from the start; stretches back out in a race with some pace for him to attack. TIZTASTIC held his own along the Derby trail as a 3yo, with a Grade 2 prep win at Fair Grounds cinching his participation in the big race – where he had a troubled trip; looked as good as ever winning his return to dirt last time with a big move from off the pace; needs to up his game, but he is back on the right surface.
Ninth Race
1. Third Coast
2. Remember Mamba
3. Bottas
THIRD COAST is all potential at this point, and he will have to grow up fast against this field. He has the pedigree to get better with time and distance, and the talent has been apparent in the two wins to date, particularly the stakes win last time when finally settling in the early stages, before powering clear through a fast final fraction while appearing to be looking for more distance; using at a price. REMEMBER MAMBA impressed while progressing through three convincing victories to begin his career; put in another strong finish in a Grade 1 last time, but he was left with too much ground to make up on a talented rival and had to settle for second; the one to beat. BOTTAS was a well-meant debut winner here as a 2yo, before coming right back to win a Grade 2 in his next start; ran an underrated trip at the Breeders’ Cup without a great trip, and he had plenty working against him off the layoff when hard held and steadied behind a slow pace early, before finishing gamely into that poor setup to get third; dangerous.
Tenth Race
1. Tuscan Sky
2. Bourbon Day
3. Full Screen
Pletcher was likely using the late-running sprint off the long layoff as a prep for TUSCAN SKY, who has the speed to get the right kind of trip out of the mile chute; he had previously been at his best when involved early, so the late interest was another positive sign in that first start back; in the right kind of spot if he can still run. BOURBON DAY arrived in NY with solid dirt form last year, despite only racing sporadically over the surface throughout his career; has been holding excellent form for Linda Rice since late last year, and he is tactical on the cutback. FULL SCREEN was first back from the layoff when finishing behind BOURBON DAY last month going longer, and he might have been closer at the end of that race had he managed to work out a clean run through the stretch; needs a better trip than that as he cuts back to a mile to make his first start off the high-priced claim.
Eleventh Race
1. Force of Mischief
2. Silly Season
3. Morning Prayer
FORCE OF MISCHIEF looked noticeably green while running in spots and steadying a couple of different times in the turf debut last month under a 7lb bug; likely gained valuable experience in that run, now switches riders; can improve quickly at a price. Well-bred SILLY SEASON made one start late last year as a 2yo, likely doing so for the experience as she looked uncomfortable racing in and among horses for most of that trip; appeared to only figure things out late, and put in a solid finish to just miss; can easily do better as she returns with Lasix on for top connections, though this post is no bargain. Someone will have to improve to down MORNING PRAYER in this spot, assuming she runs as well here as she did in a similar spot here last month; drew a perfect post after showing improved speed from the outside in that last one, but she won’t be 15/1 this time.
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