Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, July 5 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Liberty’s Secret (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Liberty’s Secret
2. Luckbeourlady
3. Liberty’s Advance
LIBERTY’S SECRET debuted in a tough MSW field late last year and was ignored at a big price, but she did some running in that spot while pressing next-out stakes winner Letmecounttheways on the pace before weakening late; ran better than that running line makes it look, and she returns with Lasix on for an underrated trainer. LUCKBEOURLADY debuts for an excellent first-out barn, and she shows a series of five-furlong drills around a bullet half from the gate back in mid-May; looks well-prepped. LIBERTY’S ADVANCE earned a 74 Beyer when second in a stakes race on debut as a 2yo, but has so far failed to build on that effort in four subsequent starts; second off the layoff as a3yo after bumping into a blowout winner last month; Lasix on.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Sunday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Merry Maker 2. Rocket One 3. Sweet Will
MERRY MAKER was first back from a very long break when weakening in a Grade 1 last time; has the back form to be tougher with a start under his best, including a Grade 1 win on this circuit. ROCKET ONE has been in the exacta in nine of his ten starts over hurdles; took a tough beat here last month when appearing to struggle late in his first attempt over this distance. SWEET WILL was Grade 1-placed last year; posted an easy win with some class relief before the layoff, and he tried a much longer race in his first start this year; needs his best.
Second Race
1. Recurring Revenue
2. Onebigbeautfulbill
3. Bye for Now
RECURRING REVENUE took the worst of it chasing a fast pace from the outside on a day when the rail was a big advantage on debut, and he paid the price; rates another chance starting back from the long layoff as a new gelding with a progressive series of breezes showing. ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL is by 15% debut sire Tiz the Law, and he is a half-brother to the speedy dirt sprinter Yo Banana Boy (92 Beyer top, just missed in his career debut with a 72 Beyer as a 2yo); Cox excellent with first-time starters. BYE FOR NOW had speed to duel the pace with the eventual winner in his debut, before ultimately tiring in the stretch; did some racing in that spot, and might benefit from the experience.
Third Race
1. Kyle’s Mom
2. Always Angels
3. Pens Street
KYLE’S MOM has won each of her last three starts in the claiming ranks, all three going this distance; tactical filly easily handled the in-form Coquito (had won her prior two starts, and has won twice more since) when last at this level in March; fresh off the bench stepping back down. ALWAYS ANGELS has been laid up since a voided claim in her first start for Atras at the end of April; she earned an 80 Beyer when racing for twice this price the last time she started at Saratoga, and followed that up with a blowout win over a field of $50k claimers going this distance a few starts later; dangerous is showing up with her best. PENS STREET dropped in class to win her first start off the Rice claim with a 74 Beyer last September; was re-claimed for over twice the price from her next start, and she has been kept in with some tougher company right along since then; needs this drop in class.
Fourth Race
1. Holy Seven
2. Neigh Baby
3. Party Animal
HOLY SEVEN was involved in some bumping at the start when winding up off the pace in his Churchill debut as a 2yo; he made a big, four-wide move on the turn of that race, before ultimately flattening out late to just miss holding second in a promising run; $700k son of Into Mischief looks well-spotted if ready off the layoff; Lasix on. NEIGH BABY lacked gate speed when debuting here as a 2yo in a race that was dominated by eventual Champagne and Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, then improved to just miss in each of his next two starts; he’s still a maiden almost a year later, but he was against an inside, speed-favoring track in February, then endured a tough trip in an underrated performance in his next start; returns to NY and cuts back. PARTY ANIMAL has earned two of the top figures in this field since switching to dirt, and he was likely in a tougher field than this one when a weakening third on this track last month; tries again.
Fifth Race
1. Capricious Outcome
2. Inherent Promise
3. Languid
CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME broke awkwardly, then just finished evenly when returned from an extended layoff to make his turf debut earlier this year; tried stretching all the way out last time, and he was restrained under a big pull in the early stages of that race, before once again just racing on evenly in the stretch; shorter is probably better, and he needs this drop. INHERENT PROMISE is a 5yo maiden, and is already 0-13 on turf, though only one of those starts came in the maiden claiming ranks; about out of chances, but he ran well twice here last summer, and someone will have to improve to beat him in this spot. LANGUID ran fine when switched to turf at this level off the claim in April; didn’t have the best trip when moved wide to sit off a rated pace his next start, and he was in too tough back on dirt last time; still has room to improve.
Sixth Race
1. Capitol Hill
2. Pass the Hat
3. Neat
Though both CAPITOL HILL and PASS THE HAT ran very well when finishing noses apart at the end of the Poker here last month, and didn’t have an easy time separating them in this intriguing running of the Kelso, which is not short on early speed. CAPITOL HILL has been improving right along for Mott; strong finisher might be well-spotted to take advantage here, even from the outside draw. PASS THE HAT went right with 1/5 favorite Zulu Kingdom on the pace in the Poker, and he put that one away late, before just holding off stablemate CAPITOL HILL to the wire last time; like that one, he is still getting better, and he has already proven to pack a big finish from off the pace. NEAT isn’t an easy horse to ride and thus is hard to trust, but he is capable and will be a fair price; he ran very well in this race last year while enduring a nightmare trip.
Eighth Race
1. Twenty Six Black
2. Bring Theband Home
3. Outlaw Kid
TWENTY SIX BLACK got good here last summer when earning a triple-digit Beyer in the Grade 2 Troy, before returning to win the first stakes race of his career at the end of the meet; he has held that form since, and he looks well-spotted here while dropping out of an underrated try in the Grade 1 Jaipur. BRING THEBAND HOME is at his best over this course and distance – 3 for 3, with Beyers of 109 and 105 for his two stakes victories last summer; hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Cup, but is dangerous speed from the rail, particularly if the cross-entered Jean Valjean opts for the race out of town. OUTLAW KID would be back on short rest for this if running, but he was unlucky in that Grade 2 last weekend in Canada, and his prior form is rock-solid, even if wins have been hard for him to come by recently.
Ninth Race
1. Complex Agenda
2. Miztertonic
3. Offlee Naughty
COMPLEX AGENDA raced off race-long pace pressure and gamely lasted to share the win with a perfectly-ridden favorite in the maiden victory late last year; has improved in his first two starts as a 4yo while having to deal with pace pressure both times; interesting stretching out, as he might not have to work as hard early. MIZTERTONIC was likely facing tougher for the level when stretched out for his first start off the bench two back, and he just came up short in that spot while earning a slight new Beyer top; did well to hit the board in a two-mile Grade 2 last time; obviously a better fit here. OFFLEE NAUGHTY is a prior graded stakes winner going long on the grass; he is no longer that kind of horse, but he has been working his way back into condition following an extended layoff and is realistically spotted here.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
