Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 17. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Roki Sasaki Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+111) vs. Yankees
Dodgers at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
Sasaki comes into this start having allowed at least three earned runs in five consecutive outings. Perhaps the short All-Star break allowed for a nice mental reset for him, but I’m willing to bet against that. The righty just hasn’t looked sharp this season, and this represents a real opportunity for the Yankees to do some early damage. New York is still playing without Aaron Judge, who won’t be back for another two months or so. However, the Yankees have enough lefty bats to take advantage of a struggle righty — especially with the short porch in right.
Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100) vs. Guardians
Pirates at Guardians – 7:10 pm ET
I haven’t had much success backing Jones this year, but I’m not the type of person to enforce a Do Not Bet list. If the matchup is right, I’ll go back to players that have burned me. Well, the matchup feels right here. Over the last 20 games, the Guardians have a strikeout rate of 23.9% against right-handed starters, so they were struggling to make contact before the All-Star break. Well, that should be good news for Jones’ swing-and-miss prospects, as he had six strikeouts against the Phillies on July 2 and eight against the Braves on July 8.
Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-126) vs. Brewers
Marlins at Brewers – 7:40 pm ET
I have been turning to Alcantara strikeout ladders a bunch lately, as it seems he’s doing great work as a swing-and-miss pitcher and the oddsmakers aren’t adjusting. Well, tonight’s strikeout total of 4.5 seems too low, even in a rough matchup. So, while I’m not willing to ladder this one up, I still can’t lay off the Over. Alcantara is averaging 6.0 strikeouts per game over his last eight starts, and he has had at least five strikeouts in six of the eight.
Additional Picks
Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130) vs. Cubs
Peter Lambert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+113) vs. Orioles
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103) vs. Rockies
Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts (+251 – 0.5 units) vs. Angels
Cade Cavalli Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-131) vs. Athletics
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+128) vs. Mariners
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Taylor Trammell Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Orioles
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.67 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -433 — a +28.4% edge to the Over.
Austin Wells Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-133) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.78 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -491 — a +26.0% edge to the Over.
Joe Mack Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.71 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -454 — a +23.6% edge to the Over.
