MLB Best Bets Today July 17
We’re back to business as usual in Major League Baseball, as the All-Star Break is in the past. The next big development will be the August 3 MLB Trade Deadline and it will be a really big couple of weeks for teams that are hoping to be buyers instead of sellers. We’re also going to see a lot of news and rumors that can definitely have an impact on the clubhouse, so that may be something you want to keep in mind. As far as today goes, some teams will be excited to get back to work, some won’t, and some players might come back rejuvenated after some downtime.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 17:
Twins vs. Cubs Prediction
Pick: Cubs 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-110)
Good hitting conditions are in the forecast in the Windy City today with a breeze blowing out and temps in the mid-80s at first pitch as the Twins and Cubs get back into the swing of things. It will be Bailey Ober for Minnesota and Colin Rea for Chicago, as we have two pitch-to-contact guys on a tough day to be one of those.
Neither guy seems like a great option, but I will give the Cubs the nod here against Ober. At least Rea has a 44% GB% and only allowed two homers over his final four starts in the first half. Ober allowed one run on three hits to the powerless Guardians in his return from the IL on July 9. Ober has allowed 13 HR in 13 starts this season and is, and has been, a pretty extreme fly ball guy. His velo remains down and he’s not getting a lot of Whiffs with his secondaries, so I really don’t see much margin for error here.
The Cubs 1st 5 Team Total is 2.5 with extremely heavy juice on the Over, while the Twins 1st 5 Team Total is also 2.5, but with pretty flat juice on the Over, so I’m thinking that the modeling crowd likes the matchup of the Cubs offense vs. Ober more than the Twins offense vs. Rea. I’m also concerned with Ober coming off the shelf and then having the All-Star Break add some extra days off. It’s tough to get into a rhythm that way. While he did shut down Cleveland, he allowed seven runs on 13 hits in 8.1 innings in his rehab assignments. One of those starts was in High-A.
Ober has allowed a .311/.355/.602 slash with a .408 wOBA in his road outings this season, allowing 22 runs in 24.2 innings. The cooler weather of March/April helped, but he allowed a .282/.311/.556 slash witha a .369 wOBA in May as it warmed up.
Padres vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Padres -120
The Padres pick things up in the second half with a visit to Kansas City and Michael King on the hill. Seth Lugo gets the call for the Royals, as they try to get back to business while smiling through the pain. The Royals had a terrible first half and you really do wonder how excited they are to get back to the field. They lost five in a row heading into the All-Star Break and have lost nine of their last 12.
The Padres hit a big rough patch in late June and early July, losing eight in a row and nine of 10 before rallying before the Break to go 4-2, including wins in their last two games heading into the intermission. As bad as that stretch was, the Padres find themselves just 3.5 out of the NL Wild Card. The Royals are 10 games out and are 21 games under .500.
It’s been a tough season for Lugo, who has a 4.56 ERA with a 5.49 xERA and a 4.38 FIP in his 104.2 innings of work. He’s given up 15 homers and allowed eight HR in his final four starts of the first half. Since he started the season with just four earned runs allowed in his first five starts, it’s been all downhill from there. He has a 6.01 ERA with a 6.05 xERA and a 5.28 FIP in his last 14 starts, allowing 97 hits in just 73.1 innings pitched.
King sports a 3.41 ERA with a 4.54 xERA and a 4.01 FIP, as he’s been helped out by some batted ball luck with a .248 BABIP and his home ballpark certainly helps. That said, his BA, OBP, SLG, and wOBA against are all lower on the road this season compared to at home. Heading into the Break, he went five straight starts without allowing a home run.
If nothing else, I’ll take a very fresh Padres pen against the Royals if the two starters do cancel out at this -120 price.
Reds vs. Rockies Prediction
Pick: Rockies -115
The second half starts in Denver for the Reds, who got off to a strong start to the season, but have completely collapsed since then. Brady Singer toes the rubber today for the Redlegs, who were 20-11 at the end of April and now start the second half at 43-52.
Singer is primarily a two-pitch pitcher. He throws sinker/slider more than 90% of the time. That doesn’t seem like a recipe for much success at Coors Field, since the slider’s movement profile will be impacted by the atmospheric conditions and the Rockies see a ton of sinkers at home because that’s how pitchers try to keep the ball on the infield and from carrying.
In terms of home performance against sinkers, the Rockies are first in BA at .339, fourth in SLG at .488, and third in wOBA at .401. They are also eighth in BA against sliders/sweepers at home, sixth in SLG, and ninth in wOBA. As it is, Singer has a 4.72 ERA with a 5.54 xERA and a 5.61 FIP on the season. He’s given up 20 HR in just 89.2 innings of work.
The Rockies will send out rookie Gabriel Hughes, their 2022 first-round pick. In two MLB appearances, the 6-foot-4 righty has allowed three runs on six hits over nine innings. He threw three shutout relief innings against the Giants and then had a quality start with seven strikeouts against the Dodgers over six innings in Chavez Ravine.
Before getting his call-up, Hughes had five straight scoreless appearances covering 21.2 innings, including 15.2 innings at the Triple-A level. He missed about a month due to injury and when he came back is when he had the scoreless streak.
The Rockies bullpen is third in ERA this month and they’ve actually been a pretty good relief corps for a while. The Reds don’t have many swing-and-miss guys in their pen. It could be a really good day for the Rockies and their hitters.
