Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8)
The Yankees (50-40) won last night’s series opener 5-1, taking care of business as -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Will Warren (7-3, 3.73 ERA) and the Rays (52-36) counter with lefty Ian Seymour (5-1, 4.02 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 home favorite and New York a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays to bounce back laying short chalk at home, pushing Tampa Bay up from -115 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in only 51% of moneyline bets but a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 124-74 (63%) with a 14% ROI this season.
The Rays offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays are hitting .262 against righties this season (3rd best in MLB), while the Yankees are hitting .243 against lefties (14th).
Seymour has posted a 2.73 ERA at home compared to 5.87 on the road.
Meanwhile, New York is 0-3 in Warren’s last three starts. He has posted a 4.76 ERA in night games compared to 2.66 in day games.
The Rays are 31-13 (71%) at home, the best home record in MLB.
6:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins (-125, 8)
The Mariners (47-44) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, winning the series finale 4-0 as a -110 home pick’em. Meanwhile, the Marlins (49-42) just swept the Athletics, winning the series finale 9-8 as a +100 road dog.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mariners send out righty Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.17 ERA) and the Marlins go with fellow righty Max Meyer (9-1, 2.53 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -115 home favorite and Seattle a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Marlins laying short chalk at home, steaming Miami up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 60% of moneyline bets but 89% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy pro action in their favor.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 57-28 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season. Rested home favorites coming off a day off who missed the playoffs the previous season are 27-9 (75%) with a 27% ROI this season.
When both teams are above .500, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 124-74 (63%) with a 14% ROI this season.
The Marlins have the better bats, hitting .254 with 418 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .231 with only 372 runs scored.
Miami is 10-2 in Meyer’s last 12 starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in six straight starts. He is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Woo posted a 5.97 ERA in five June starts, giving up 19 earned runs in 28.2 innings pitched. He is 1-6 with a 6.38 ERA on the road.
The Marlins are 28-17 (62%) at home, 4th best in MLB. The Mariners are 20-24 on the road.
6:45 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Washington Nationals (-125, 9)
The Nationals (47-45) won last night’s Interleague series opener 12-11, hanging on as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Astros (45-48) tap righty Tatsuya Imai (5-4, 6.14 ERA) and the Nationals go with lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-1, 3.05 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -120 home favorite and Houston a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Nats laying a short number at home, pushing Washington up from -120 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 66% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Pro money has also come down in favor of the Nats on the run-line (-1.5 at +155), as Washington is taking in only 42% of spread bets but 65% of spread handle at DraftKings.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Nats here, are 87-59 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 105-65 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Washington has the better bats, hitting .250 with a .433 slug, .324 OBP and 497 runs scored compared to the Astros hitting .242 with a .413 slug, .316 OBP and 424 runs scored.
Imai has posted a 7.76 ERA in night games compared to 3.72 in day games.
On the other hand, Alvarez has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 6 straight starts.
