MLB Best Bets Today June 15
It is busy by Monday standards for a non-holiday, as we have 10 games on the docket. Four of them are interleague matchups, while only two are AL games. It is a pretty chalky night across the board, though, as there are only a couple of games with favorites under -130 and they moved down to go that way. It should be an interesting night for sure, especially if the dogs are barking.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 15:
Pirates vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Pirates +102
The A’s are back in Sacramento after a wild week in Las Vegas. It will be important to add the proper context to pitcher stat lines from those games in Sin City, as it is an absolute launching pad for fly balls. Take J.T. Ginn for example, as he tied a season high with five runs allowed in his June 9 start at Las Vegas Ballpark. However, while that is a concerning stat line deserving of an asterisk, I think a start like that was coming.
Ginn allowed an average exit velocity of 96 mph in his previous start and 93.2 mph in the start before that, allowing a total of 15 hard-hit balls over those two outings. He left his May 23 start against the Padres without allowing a hit, but he walked six of the 14 batters that he faced. Since taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning and losing to the Angels on May 18, Ginn has a 3.60 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and a 4.55 FIP over 20 innings of work. He’s struck out 21, but he’s also walked 13 and is very fortunate to be running a .245 BABIP and a 76.3% LOB% with a 49% Hard Hit%.
The quality of Ginn’s stuff has been lacking lately as well, as he’s had less vertical movement and Stuff+ numbers of 83, 92, 88, and 95, while posting a season-low 81 Pitching+ last time out. Yes, it was in Las Vegas, but his mechanics have been all over the place lately, making me wonder if he’s trying to pitch through or around some discomfort.
The Pirates will counter with Jared Jones, who allowed five runs in his May 29 return, but has allowed two runs on seven hits over nine innings in his last two efforts. He’s struck out eight and walked three. He had a very tough assignment last time out against the Dodgers and pitched pretty well, all things considered.
I’m expecting something of Jones/Carmen Mlodzinski piggyback situation here, as he threw 76 pitches last Wednesday. He wasn’t happy about his demotion to the bullpen, but he has a 4.02 ERA with a 3.68 FIP on the season and his increased BB% and lower K% compared to last season could normalize in the bullpen where he doesn’t have to go as deep into his bag.
With the A’s coming off of some long games in the Vegas heat, coupled with the concerning signs for Ginn, who has just a 34/22 K/BB ratio against lefties, the Pirates look intriguing to me as a dog.
Rays vs. Dodgers Prediction
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
A couple of journeymen hurlers get this game going with Nick Martinez for the Rays and Eric Lauer for the Dodgers. The Dodgers seem to have found something in the veteran southpaw, who has allowed five runs on 12 hits in 16.1 innings with LA. He’s struck out 10 and walked two. He has allowed four homers, but the Rays, despite their offensive prowess this season, don’t really hit for a lot of power. They are 18th in runs scored and 30th in homers.
Martinez is definitely showing signs of regression with a 2.43 ERA, 4.45 xERA, 3.56 FIP, and a 4.53 xFIP in 77.2 innings of work. His K% is down to 13.8%, which is definitely a concerning proposition going forward. But, he’s also only walked 4.1% of opposing batters. He forces teams to put the ball in play and has done so with a 31.7% Hard Hit% and just a 6.6% Barrel%.
The Dodgers are likely to throw seven left-handed bats at Martinez, which is fine because his changeup is and has always been his bread and butter pitch. Lefties are slashing .241/.283/.362 against him with a .285 wOBA, while righties are slashing .280/.303/.416 with a .313 wOBA. Surprisingly, he’s been better on the road than at home at the Trop, which is annually one of the league’s top pitcher’s parks.
Opposing batters are hitting just .113/.182/.125 off of his changeup with a 34.9% Whiff% and I’d expect a lot of them here. The Dodgers have really beaten up on fastballs and curveballs this season. They’re still a top-10 offense by Batting Runs against changeups per 100 pitches, but not as astute as they are against other offerings.
The Rays are 28th in SLG against LHP over the last 14 days. Both bullpens are in reasonable shape. I like this total.
