WNBA Picks
Unfortunately, we lost our only play of the day on Sunday, as Toronto forgot how to play defense in the fourth quarter after the Under was looking good for a lot of the game. We’re still up almost 13 units in June and despite a terrible 10-day stretch in May, we’re up almost 4 units on the season. Nonetheless, we’ve got a three-game slate on Monday night to look forward to, featuring the Dallas Wings hosting the Las Vegas Aces, the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Portland Fire, and the LA Sparks visiting in-state rival Golden State. Here are the TSI projections for Monday night.
Dallas Wings (+2.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 177.5
Paige Bueckers was a late scratch for Dallas in their last game, which cost both us (who had an Over bet in the game) and the Wings themselves because they lost outright to the Fire without her. My assumption is they held her out as a precaution to have her ready to go for this one. Dallas won eight of its previous nine games with Paige in the lineup before that loss to Portland by an average score of 90-79. Las Vegas has scored 100 in three straight games, and is hitting a level we didn’t see them hit at all last regular season before their championship run. That’s frightening for the rest of the league. They’ve won six in a row by an average score of 94-84, including a win over Minnesota over the weekend. TSI projects Vegas -1 with a total of 174.5, and looking at the home/road splits, Dallas has been five points better at home, while Vegas has been almost 10 points better on the road (even looking at their median performance) for some reason. The interesting thing is that Dallas home games have averaged 10.5 total points fewer per game than road games, and Vegas road games have averaged three points fewer per game than their home games. All in all, that lends itself to an Under play for me, selling high on the Aces’ run of 100-point games.
Bet: Under 177.5 (Play to 176.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-14) vs Portland Fire, O/U 169.5
Minnesota had won eight straight games before losing to the Aces in Vegas this past weekend, but even including that loss their average score over that span is 94-77. They’re hosting a Portland team who finally got a win after losing four straight games by an average score of 92-78. TSI projects Minnesota -13 with a total of 169.5, so there’s really nothing to be played in this game. The home/road splits say Minnesota has been consistently the same team at home on the road, both in terms of rating and total points scored and allowed on average. Portland has been about the same from a power rating standpoint, but their road games have averaged about three fewer points per game than their home games.
Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) vs Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 173.5
This is the game I’m most excited for, although a 10 p.m. ET tipoff means I will be long asleep before it ever even starts. Golden State has won back-to-back games, albeit against Seattle and Phoenix, after losing their previous two games. LA is 3-0 with Kelsey Plum back in the lineup, but those wins came against Phoenix, Seattle, and Portland. Their power rating in those three games averaged about three points above league average, so quality performances but not dominant against inferior competition. TSI projects Golden State -5 with a total of 174.5. Unfortunately, both the side and total have moved too much, so I’m only going to give leans here, but given LA is playing its 3rd road game in six days, I really like Golden State in this spot, and I also look for the game to go Over. Golden State has been almost three points better at home, with their home games averaging one point more per game than their road games, while LA has been 6.5 points better on the road, and their away games have averaged 7.5 more points per game than home games.
Lean: Golden State Valkyries -5.5
Lean: Over 173.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
