Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 10 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals (-130, 9)
The Royals (29-43) just dropped two of three against the Astros but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-0 as -120 home favorites. On the other hand, the Nationals (37-35) just took two of three against the Mariners, dominating yesterday’s series finale 10-1 as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Royals hand the ball to righty Mitch Spence (0-0, 13.50 ERA) and the Nationals turn to lefty Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 3.70 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -130 home favorite and Kansas City a +110 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Nationals laying modest chalk at home, pushing Washington up from -130 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are taking in 81% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Washington is receiving 90% of moneyline bets a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Nats here, are 69-43 (62%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Home favorites priced -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 130-88 (60%) with an 8% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites priced -150 or less receiving line movement in their favor are 75-38 (66%) with an 18% ROI since 2025.
Washington enjoys a sizable edge at the plate, posting a .422 slugging percentage with 392 runs scored compared to Kansas City posting a .378 slugging percentage with only 288 runs scored.
The Nats are 5-2 in Alvarez’s seven appearances this season.
Meanwhile, Spence has only made only one appearance this season (April 18th), giving up 6 earned runs in 4 innings pitched in a 13-4 loss to the Yankees.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (-140, 8.5)
The Mets (32-39) just took two of three against the Braves, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-1 as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Reds (33-37) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-3 as a -105 home dog.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mets start righty Tobias Myers (0-1, 4.05 ERA) and the Reds go with fellow righty Chase Burns (7-1, 2.14 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -135 home favorite and New York a +115 road dog.
Wiseguys have jumped on the Reds, pushing Cincinnati up from -135 to -140, with some shops inching toward -145.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 61% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Monday home favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Reds here, are 22-13 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Sharps have also hit the Reds on the run-line (-1.5 at +150), as Cincinnati is taking in 51% of spread bets but 84% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
The Reds have the edge offensively, posting a .312 OBP and .393 slugging percentage compared to the Mets posting a .294 OBP and .371 slugging percentage.
Burns has given up 2 earned runs or less in 12 of his 13 starts this season. He is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home.
7:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 8.5)
The Padres (37-33) just took two of three against the Orioles, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as +115 road dogs. On the other hand, the Cardinals (38-31) just dropped two of three against the Twins, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-4 as a -105 road dog.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres tap righty Lucas Giolito (2-1, 4.35 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with fellow righty Dustin May (4-6, 4.21 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -145 home favorite and San Diego a +125 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cardinals to take the first game of the series, steaming St. Louis up from -145 to -155.
At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team taking in line movement in their direction has gone 90-57 (61%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Sharps have also targeted the Cardinals on the run-line (-1.5 at +135), as St. Louis is receiving 45% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
The Cardinals have the far better offense, hitting .246 with a .323 OBP and 319 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting only .219 with a .293 OBP and 272 runs scored.
May has pitched well as of late, allowing only 4 earned runs over 18.2 innings pitched in his last three starts (1.98 ERA).
He is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in night games compared to 1-6 with a 5.73 ERA in day games.
Meanwhile, Giolito has posted a 6.94 ERA on the road compared to 1.00 at home.
