MLB Best Bets Today June 29
Aside from holidays, we rarely see Monday slates this big in MLB, as we’ve got 26 of the league’s 30 teams in action. There are no day games, as the first game goes off at 6:35 p.m. ET, so that means plenty of time to handicap the card as the work week gets underway.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 29:
White Sox vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: White Sox +114
The South Siders are in Baltimore to start up a weekday set and it’ll begin with Sean Burke for the White Sox and Shane Baz for the Orioles. Burke enters with a 3.71 ERA, 3.95 xERA, and a 3.98 FIP over his 87.1 innings of work with 87 strikeouts against 30 walks. Baz has a 4.31 ERA with a 4.51 xERA and a 3.83 FIP over 94 innings with 81 strikeouts against 35 walks.
So, I do feel like Chicago has a bit of an advantage on the starting pitcher front here. Baz has allowed 16 runs over his last four starts, while Burke has allowed 14 runs over his last seven appearances. He only allowed a solo homer and scattered some other hits against Cleveland last time out on the heels of 7.1 brilliant innings against the Yankees in a bulk relief role prior to that.
The biggest angle here for me is that Baz is likely to face seven left-handed batters in the White Sox lineup tonight. Lefties are slashing .285/.355/.470 with a .356 wOBA against him. They have racked up 26 extra-base hits, including 20 of the 29 doubles Baz has allowed while having just 55 more plate appearances than righties. Baz also has a double-digit BB% against LHB on the season. Over the last 14 days, the White Sox are eighth in wOBA at .342 against RHP, while the Orioles are 27th at .286.
Baltimore dropped two of three to the Nationals this past weekend after a nine-game West Coast road trip. It’s the dog days of summer for these teams and the White Sox are up at the top of the division, while the O’s look very likely to miss the playoffs again. It wouldn’t be surprising for Chicago to be more engaged here as well.
Rangers vs. Guardians Prediction
Pick: No Run First Inning (NRFI) (or Under 0.5 Runs 1st Inning) -130
The Rangers will use opener Tyler Alexander in this one and he’s left-handed. The Guardians have a 17 wRC+ against LHP over the last 14 days, which means that they are 83% below league average in that split. They’ve struck out at a 31.1% clip in 151 PA. Alexander, who has picked up saves the last two days, has a 2.62 ERA with a 3.01 xERA and a 3.33 FIP in his 34.1 innings of work.
Parker Messick gets the call for Cleveland. He has not allowed an earned run in the first inning in any of his 16 starts this season, holding the opposition to a .094/.172/.132 slash with 19 strikeouts against five walks. He’s only allowed seven total bases in the first inning out of 58 plate appearances.
I don’t play a lot of these, but this one seems to make a lot of sense, especially with Alexander’s presence.
Dodgers vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Dodgers -114
A couple of southpaws are lined up to go today in Sacramento, with veteran Eric Lauer for the Dodgers and youngster Gage Jump for the A’s. The betting markets are looking to fade Lauer, who has a 2.54 ERA in his 28.1 innings with the Dodgers, but his 4.41 xERA and 5.22 FIP on a warm night with the wind blowing out does seem rather concerning. Lauer’s .165 BABIP and 95% LOB% are not going to stick around.
But, it is hard to pass on the Dodgers lineup on a favorable night for hitting, especially with an unproven pitcher in Jump. He’s been excellent over his six starts with a 2.04 ERA, 2.94 xERA, and a 2.14 FIP and he even survived his start at Las Vegas Ballpark with three runs on five hits over five innings against Colorado. He’s thrown 12 scoreless innings in his two starts since, coming against the Angels and Giants.
Ultimately, Jump has faced the Mariners, Cubs, Astros, Rockies, Angels, and Giants, who rank 23rd, 4th, 12th, 5th (Rockies), 15th, and 16th in wOBA. The Dodgers are tops in baseball. If he can navigate this lineup, and he certainly has the talent to do so, then good on him. But, this is a big “jump” in class to say the least.
The other thing here is that the A’s have a 6.22 reliever ERA over the last 30 days. The Dodgers have had some relief woes as well, but their leverage guys are definitely higher-level talents than the A’s leverage guys.
Lauer might get his spot blown up and that regression may hit, but I’ll take this lineup and the stronger bullpen at this price.
