MLB Best Bets Today June 30
The Tuesday MLB schedule looks a lot like the Monday one, except for one key difference. All 30 teams are in action today, but there are still no day games and the first game starts at 6:35 p.m. ET. There are a lot of aces on the board today, so we’ll see what that means for offense as June comes to a close.
Collectively, the league has batted .249/.320/.419 this month. That is the highest SLG since the juiced ball season of 2019 and 15 points higher than June 2025. Make of that what you will, but there has been some talk lately about the decreased drag coefficient of the baseball and that maybe it is a little bit better for hitters right now than it has been. The inconsistencies of baseball manufacturing continue to add another wrinkle to handicapping the game.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 30:
Rangers vs. Guardians Prediction
Pick: Rangers -123
It’ll be a hot night in Cleveland, as it’s an extreme week of weather with temps in the 90s and humidity readings that will take the heat index north of 100. We’ll see if that helps offensively and the wind is blowing out to RF tonight, so we could see a bit of a shootout. If that’s the case, I’ll put my money on anybody but Cleveland, as they are batting .211/.283/.321 over the last 14 days. All of that time is without Jose Ramirez and this wasn’t a good offense with him.
Cleveland strongly holds to its platoons, given that that’s how the roster is constructed. It doesn’t really matter what side of the plate you swing from against Jacob deGrom, but lefties have a .267 wOBA while righties have a .288 wOBA. JDG has struck out over 30% of the left-handed sticks he’s faced this season. Not only are the Guardians a low-SLG, low-OBP offense these days, they’re also striking out a ton. They have a K% in the last 14 days of 27.5%.
Tanner Bibee gets the call for Cleveland tonight and that concerns me. He has a 3.78 ERA with a 4.63 xERA and a 4.56 FIP on the season. He has also given up 16 home runs. While deGrom has given up 15, Cleveland has no power bats and he’s just an extreme strike-thrower and that will happen. Bibee’s is a byproduct of command.
The Guardians bullpen is back to being a hindrance, as they are getting zero from Erik Sabrowski right now, Hunter Gaddis is a wild card every time he’s on the mound, and Cade Smith is only used in save situations. It’s a tough state of affairs in The Land right now and this is a cheap price to get a pitcher that should mow through this putrid lineup and a guy who should be able to work deep into this game.
Tigers vs. Yankees Prediction
Pick: Yankees -125
The best pitching matchup of the night is in the Bronx, where Tarik Skubal and Cam Schlittler will square off. Skubal is making his second straight start against the Yankees after allowing four runs on four hits, with three of those hits leaving the ballpark. Now he faces them in that glorified Little League field instead of the much more spacious Comerica Park, so that seems like a reason to be concerned.
Overall, Skubal has allowed 10 runs on 16 hits in 16.1 innings since coming back very quickly from a surgical procedure to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow. He has a 21/2 K/BB ratio, so he’s been his usual stellar self in that regard, but he has allowed six Barrels, which is very unlike him. Even with a 23.5% SwStr% and a Chase Rate north of 50%, he still served up some mistakes to the Yankees and it’s certainly possible again tonight.
Schlittler gave up four unearned runs in his last start against Boston, but did have nine punchies. He’s got spectacular numbers for the season with a 1.62 ERA, 2.72 xERA, and a 2.21 FIP. He has 29 strikeouts in his last three starts, so the stuff is still very good for the AL Cy Young favorite. Detroit is only batting .225/.300/.382 against RHP over the last 14 days and next to none of them are having the season Schlittler is having.
The Yankees have struggled with lefties lately as well and maybe that’ll be a silver lining for Skubal, but it’s rare to get Schlittler and the AL’s best team at this sort of price and Skubal’s not exactly dominant since returning. The Yankees did need six relievers yesterday, but nobody is overly compromised in the bullpen and that group is third in ERA over the last 30 days.
Dodgers vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Athletics +141; A’s 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-115)
Southpaws come together in Sacramento here with Justin Wrobleski and Jeffrey Springs in the middle game of this set. We got the Dodgers at a cheap price yesterday that was too good to pass up and they came through with a 9-4 win. Today, I’ll take my chances by going against them.
This is a straight-up fade of Wrobleski, who has a ton of negative regression signs in his profile. He has a 2.71 ERA with a 4.32 xERA and a 3.62 FIP. Despite a very poor 15.4% K%, he’s carrying a low FIP because of his low walk rate and the fact that he has only allowed seven homers in 86.1 innings. But, if we look deeper, not only does the xERA support the notion of some tough days ahead, his .235 BABIP and 79.5% LOB% both look highly unsustainable to me. Wrobleski has a 4.62 SIERA, often viewed as one of the stronger run estimators for predicting future performance.
Even if we look just since May 10, his ERA is much closer to 4.00 at 3.75 with a xERA of 4.30, so we’re seeing him pitch more towards his true talent level. Given that it’s going to be extremely hot in Sacramento with a helping breeze, this feels like the right atmosphere for a bad start.
On the A’s side of things, it hasn’t been a great year for Springs, but I could see the crafty lefty figuring something out here. He’s allowed 20 homers in just 88 innings. He allowed 22 during a full season of work last year. That’s been far and away his biggest issue, as his ratios and rate stats are mostly the same from past seasons. His 4.49 xFIP suggests that some better days may be ahead, as that’s over a run lower than his ERA.
Ultimately, I’m looking to fade Wrobleski here and hope that the A’s offense can do enough to outslug the Dodgers. That’s why there’s some bet protection there with the A’s 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 in the event that they do hit Wrobleski, but the Dodgers also hit Springs and/or the bullpen.
