Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 10) at Kansas City Royals
The Rays (48-33) just swept the Diamondbacks, winning the series finale 5-1 as -200 home favorites. On the other hand, the Royals (35-50) just dropped two of three against the White Sox but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 3-2 as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays hand the ball to righty Griffin Jax (3-5, 3.33 ERA) and the Royals go with lefty Noah Cameron (4-5, 4.50 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 road favorite and Kansas City a -105 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays laying short chalk, pushing Tampa Bay up from -115 to -120.
At Circa, Tampa Bay is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way action in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 79-44 (64%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Tampa Bay is 26-15 (63%) with a 10% ROI as a favorite against teams with a losing record, the 2nd best record in MLB.
The Rays have the better offense, hitting .259 with a .336 OBP compared to the Royals hitting .245 with a .316 OBP.
Jax has posted a 0.90 ERA in his last four stats, giving up only 2 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. He has posted a 2.96 ERA on the road compared to 3.71 at home.
Meanwhile, the Royals are just 3-11 in Cameron’s last 14 starts.
Tampa Bay is 28-18 in night games. Kansas City is 22-30.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-190, 7)
The Mariners (43-43) won last night’s series opener 6-2, taking care of business as -205 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Angels (36-50) send out righty Jose Soriano (8-4, 3.32 ERA) and the Mariners turn to fellow righty Bryan Woo (6-6, 4.26 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -170 home favorite and Los Angeles a +150 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Mariners to earn another victory at home, steaming Seattle up from -170 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Seattle is receiving 25% of moneyline bets and 46% of moneyline dollars. Both shops are displaying a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Seattle offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Woo is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA at home compared to 1-6 with a 6.38 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Soriano has posted a 5.32 ERA in five June starts, giving up 14 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched.
The Mariners have the better bullpen, posting a 3.66 ERA (7th best in MLB) compared to 4.51 for the Angels (24th).
Seattle is 23-19 at home. Los Angeles is 15-28 (35%) on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 11) at Athletics
The Dodgers (55-30) took last night’s Interleague series opener 9-4, coming through as -120 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers hand the ball to lefty Justin Wrobleski (9-2, 2.71 ERA) and the Athletics counter with fellow southpaw Jeffrey Springs (3-7, 5.52 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -145 road favorite and the Athletics a +125 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Dodgers to earn another road victory, steaming Los Angeles up from -145 to -165.
At Circa, the Dodgers are receiving over 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from the Vegas sharps.
Non-division road favorites with a win percentage of .610 or higher priced -150 or higher, like the Dodgers here, are 54-25 (68%) with a 5% ROI since 2025.
The Dodgers are 30-16 (65%) with a 9% ROI when priced as a -200 favorite or less this season.
Wrobleski has posted a 2.28 ERA in four June starts, giving up only 6 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched. Los Angeles is 10-3 in his last 13 starts.
On the other hand, Springs has posted a 9.97 ERA in five June starts, allowing 24 earned runs in 21.2 innings pitched. He has posted a 6.43 ERA at home compared to 4.38 on the road.
The Dodgers are 29-16 (64%) on the road, the 2nd best road record in MLB. Meanwhile, the Athletics are 18-24 at home.
